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The days of 'fun flying' are long gone: How U.S. air travel became a nightmare

It came off as a rare moment of candor for the airline industry on Wednesday, when United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told analysts and reporters that after a year of constant disruptions, including canceled and delayed flights, lost luggage and worse, passengers could expect more of that in 2023.

“The system simply can’t handle the volume today, much less the anticipated growth,” Kirby said. “There are a number of airlines who cannot fly their schedules. The customers are paying the price.”

The year 2022 was one of the most stress-inducing for consumer air travelers in recent memory. A surge in travel demand after airlines slashed resources during the pandemic caught carriers flat footed. Unable to adequately staff flights, they nevertheless continued to sell record-breaking numbers of tickets, resulting in more than one in five flights being delayed , according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics — the highest rate of delays since 2014.

By Memorial Day last year , airfares were soaring, and flight cancellations started to mount. The situation worsened over the summer, as bouts of disruptive weather left passengers stranded and forced Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to call a meeting with airline CEOs.

While autumn was mostly free of disruptions, the year ended with a winter storm that brought airline travel to a standstill, especially at Southwest Airlines .

"The days of flying being fun are long over," said William McGee, a senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, a nonprofit, nonpartisan, anti-monopoly group. "People will settle for noneventful."

Not everyone agrees on the nature of the problem. According to Scott Mayerowitz, executive editor of The Points Guy travel website, on any given day, the current system is mostly fine.

"It’s only these few instances when things go wrong, that they go horribly wrong, and it causes severe problems for such large numbers of people," he said. "And it’s horrible if you’re one of those passengers — but the next week, everyone moves along and the system works."

Still, many agree about the short- and long-term challenges that plague the industry. Airlines will soon be hobbled by a lack of adequate staffing, something United's Kirby alluded to. On a more distant horizon are modernization and market reform efforts that analysts fear might be stymied by political obstacles.

Those issues are likely to linger as long as Washington gridlock prevails, analysts say.

Labor shortages

As the pandemic swooped in, air travel was among the industries most affected, as more than 90% of flights were grounded. Bloomberg News calculated that some 400,000 global airline industry workers were set to lose their jobs as a result of the pandemic.

Today, labor shortages exist throughout the economy, but the problem drags on in the air travel sector, where more extensive employee training is usually required.

“The question on everybody’s lips is, ‘Where have they all gone?’” said Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline, at an event this summer, as reported by The Wall Street Journal . “There are hundreds of millions of people that have disappeared from the labor market.”

First and foremost among the airline industry's labor issues is a pilot shortage. By one estimate, some 12,000 more pilots are needed. Even before the pandemic, pilots were retiring in droves as the baby boom generation hit the federal mandatory pilot age limit of 65.

“The pilot shortage for the industry is real, and most airlines are simply not going to be able to realize their capacity plans because there simply aren’t enough pilots, at least not for the next five-plus years,” United's Kirby said on a quarterly earnings call last April.

But pilot unions have resisted calls for reform. Some fear that proposed changes could jeopardize safety. Others worry that with younger, less experienced pilots among their ranks, some collective bargaining leverage would be lost.

On its website , the Air Line Pilots Association, the nation's largest pilots union, calls the shortage a "myth" and accuses airline executives of trying to maximize profit — in part by refusing to reduce their flight schedules.

But even ALPA acknowledges more measures could be taken to "maintain a robust pilot pipeline," like helping students pay for flight training and subsidizing loans to cover it. Having more pilots available to work would ease the burden on the system.

Other stakeholders seem to be on the same page.

The trade group Airlines for America, which counts American Airlines, JetBlue, Southwest and others as members, told NBC News its carriers "have been working diligently to address operational challenges within our control by hiring additional staff and adjusting our schedules to improve reliability ." 

Sen. Lindsey Graham has introduced legislation to raise the pilot retirement age from 65 to 67. The bill is supported by the Regional Airline Association, which says that since 2019, 71% of airports have reduced flights, and nine airports have lost service completely as a result of the age limit.

“Under this legislation, approximately 5,000 pilots would have the opportunity to continue to fly over the next two years, and in turn, help keep communities connected to the air transportation system,” association senior director Drew Remos said, according to CNBC.

Outdated technology and infrastructure

There is near-universal agreement that the infrastructure underpinning segments of America's air travel system is outdated and vulnerable. That was on full display at the start of the year when a technology issue at the Federal Aviation Administration caused all planes to be grounded. The agency said it has continued to investigate, but Washington lawmakers said the glitch proved that more drastic changes were needed.

Rep. Sam Graves, R-Missouri, said the incident highlighted "a huge vulnerability in our air transportation system."

"Just as Southwest’s widespread disruption just a few weeks ago was inexcusable, so too is the DOT’s and FAA’s failure to properly maintain and operate the air traffic control system," he said.

The Southwest incident, too, was blamed in part on Southwest's aging scheduling system, which requires crew members to call into a central hotline to be rerouted when a disruption occurs.

The FAA has been working to implement what is known as the NextGen system to modernize the country's air traffic control system, one part of which still uses paper strips to coordinate flight schedules. Reuters recently referred to that aspect as "long-ridiculed."

“There’s a great deal of work needed to reduce the backlog of sustainment work, upgrades and replacement of buildings and equipment needed to operate our nation’s airspace safely,” FAA Deputy Administrator Bradley Mims said last April.

Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian has said additional federal funding is needed to speed up modernization.

“I lay this on the fact that we are not giving them the resources, the funding, the staffing, the tools, the technology they need to modernize the technology system," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" recently.

"Hopefully, this will be the call to our political leaders in Washington that we need to do better,” Bastian added.

But Paul Hudson, president of the FlyersRights consumer advocacy group, said the Transportation Department already gets plenty of funding — and that the money is being misspent.

"I would like to see an audit of where the money is," Hudson told NBC News. "DOT has gotten an enormous increase, and either it's not being spent, or it's being spent on other things than what’s causing cancellations."  

But even this issue comes back to staffing. The FAA  said in 2020 it was more difficult  “to hire technical talent as quickly and effectively than in the past.”

Lawmakers across the political spectrum have called for an alternative solution: privatizing the air traffic control system. It's a step that other countries have taken, including Canada, whose NAV Canada system has been a privately operated nonprofit company since 1996.

"It's the gold standard of air traffic systems in the world," said Scott Lincicome, director of general economics at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. "It is efficient, innovative, and it is a nonprofit private company regulated by the government," Lincicome said, adding: "It’s a great example of what the US system could be if we could surmount our difficulties."

But Lincicome said there is entrenched resistance to that solution — and to many other practical ones put forward by consumer advocates of all political stripes.

"It doesn’t seem like there’s any appetite in Washington for that reform, regardless of the documented problems," Lincicome said. "It seems like a very tough nut to crack."

In the meantime, flyers in the U.S. will remain at the mercy of their individual airline. Already, U.S. airline passengers enjoy fewer rights than passengers in Europe, according to Eric Napoli, vice president of legal strategy at  AirHelp , a European-based consumer rights advocacy group. While European passengers are entitled to as much as 600 euros when there’s a flight disruption of more than three hours that’s not outside an airline’s control, travelers on U.S. flights are entitled merely to a refund — and even that can be hard to obtain.

"It’s difficult to claim compensation from airlines," Napoli said of airline passengers in the U.S. "They don’t have great protections."

Mayerowitz, with The Points Guy, said carriers would likely pass on the costs of stronger regulation to customers.

“Americans are used to $39 flights to Florida,” Mayerowitz said. “There’s probably not a desire by travelers to pay an extra $20 or $30 for each ticket in order to have these delay protections that they may or may not reap the benefits of” if their flight ends up being on time.

Airfares have been in a more or less steady decline since the mid-1990s, when adjusted for inflation. Compared with a ticket that cost an average of $558 in 1995, airfare in 2022 cost an average of $373, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics .

McGee, with the American Economic Liberties Project, says more comprehensive action is needed.

"It's nearing a breaking point, and this is not a one party issue," McGee said. "There's a general sense in the country; most Americans realize something is really wrong with this industry."

But Mayerowitz said that until those actions are taken, passengers should be realistic about what to expect when they take to the skies.

"Passengers should never lower their expectations, but should always prepare for the worst," Mayerowitz said. "We need to hold airlines and politicians accountable. Air travel should be predictable and consistent, and you shouldn’t have to wonder if air traffic control is going to be working today as you head to the airport.

"That said, every traveler should always have a backup plan, and a backup for their backup. And that’s especially true over holidays."

Rob Wile is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist covering breaking business stories for NBCNews.com.

The Latest on U.S. Travel Restrictions

By Lauren Hard Oct. 19, 2021

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What to Know: U.S. Travel Restrictions

Beginning today, international visitors who are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus can enter the United States by air or across the land borders with Canada and Mexico.

Here’s the latest →

The new policy ends an 18-month ban on nonessential travel from 33 countries, including China, Brazil and European Union members. The ban had affected tourists and those hoping to visit family and friends in the U.S.

The rules reorient the U.S. approach to vetting its visitors during the pandemic.

Instead of basing entry decisions on travelers’ countries of origin, the U.S. is focusing on vaccination status.

International visitors flying into the U.S. now need to show proof of vaccination before boarding and a negative coronavirus test taken within three days of their flight.

The three vaccines available in the U.S. — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson — are accepted, as are vaccines cleared for emergency use by the W.H.O., including AstraZeneca and Covaxin.

Unvaccinated foreign visitors cannot enter the country, with limited exemptions.

Unvaccinated Americans returning home need to test negative for the coronavirus within one day of their flight and show proof they have purchased another test to take after arriving.

The hope is with these longstanding bans being lifted, the U.S. tourism industry will start to recover. The halt on travel caused a loss of nearly $300 billion in visitor spending, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

Keep up with the latest travel news, trends and feature stories.

Our Coverage of U.S. Immigration

America’s Brutal Visa Lottery: For Chinese seeking educational opportunity, the United States has long been the top spot, but as more want to stay to work, their paths are full of roadblocks .

A Migrant Family’s Struggles: Margarita Solito and her family fled violence and poverty in El Salvador, hoping to build a better life in San Francisco. The city often wasn’t what they thought it would be .

Home-Buying Assistance: Gov. Gavin Newsom of California rejected a Democratic proposal  that would have extended first-time home-buyer loans to some undocumented immigrants. Republicans had widely criticized the bill.

When One Partner Is Deported:  American citizens whose spouses have been deported face wrenching decisions on what is best  for their future, especially when they have children.

Asylum Restrictions:  The Biden administration is considering actions that would make the president’s tough but temporary asylum restrictions almost impossible to lift , essentially turning what had been a short-term fix into a central feature of the asylum system in America.

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• Flight Dallas - Los Angeles (DFW - LAX) $46+
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• Flight New York - Tokyo (NYC - TYO) $739+
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• Flight Las Vegas - Seattle (LAS - SEA) $23+
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• Flight Boston - Paris (BOS - PAR) $328+
• Flight Chicago - Paris (CHI - PAR) $372+
• Flight Miami - Paris (MIA - PAR) $393+
• Flight Orlando - Paris (ORL - PAR) $401+
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• Flight Portland - Paris (PDX - PAR) $421+

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• Flight Chicago - Manila (CHI - MNL) $753+
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• Flight Miami - Manila (MIA - MNL) $761+
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• Flight Phoenix - Manila (PHX - MNL) $805+
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• Flight Ontario - Denver (ONT - DEN) $57+
• Flight San Francisco - Denver (SFO - DEN) $58+
• Flight Phoenix - Denver (PHX - DEN) $73+
• Flight Minneapolis - Denver (MSP - DEN) $75+
• Flight Atlanta - Denver (ATL - DEN) $82+
• Flight San Diego - Denver (SAN - DEN) $82+
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• Flight Houston - Denver (IAH - DEN) $83+

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• Flight Las Vegas - San Francisco (LAS - SFO) $37+
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• Flight San Diego - San Francisco (SAN - SFO) $47+
• Flight Santa Ana - San Francisco (SNA - SFO) $47+
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• Flight Portland - San Francisco (PDX - SFO) $57+
• Flight Salt Lake City - San Francisco (SLC - SFO) $61+
• Flight Phoenix - San Francisco (PHX - SFO) $67+
• Flight Dallas - San Francisco (DFW - SFO) $106+

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• Flight Las Vegas - San Diego (LAS - SAN) $30+
• Flight San Jose - San Diego (SJC - SAN) $35+
• Flight San Francisco - San Diego (SFO - SAN) $46+
• Flight Portland - San Diego (PDX - SAN) $48+
• Flight Sacramento - San Diego (SMF - SAN) $53+
• Flight Phoenix - San Diego (PHX - SAN) $55+
• Flight Oakland - San Diego (OAK - SAN) $61+
• Flight Salt Lake City - San Diego (SLC - SAN) $61+
• Flight Seattle - San Diego (SEA - SAN) $71+
• Flight Dallas - San Diego (DFW - SAN) $76+

Punta Cana Flights

• Flight Fort Lauderdale - Punta Cana (FLL - PUJ) $177+
• Flight Miami - Punta Cana (MIA - PUJ) $216+
• Flight Atlanta - Punta Cana (ATL - PUJ) $226+
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‘I still imagine being there:’ A trip through memories of Ukrainian cities in tatters from Russia's war

Russia’s now-10-year war against Ukraine has affected every inch of the country, but no other region has taken the brunt of Russian aggression like Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

While the initial eight years of Russia's invasion only affected a handful of eastern Ukrainian cities, towns, and villages, some 200 have now been heavily impacted by Russia’s full-scale invasion of 2022, according to Ukrainian authorities.

At least 35 settlements continue to experience active combat, while others have ceased to exist almost entirely, such as Volnovakha , Bakhmut , or Marinka in Donetsk Oblast.

“The town of Marinka no longer exists,” then-Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zalyzhnyi told a news conference in late December 2023.

Each damaged or destroyed town and city carries with it a human toll. Thousands have been killed and over a million have been displaced from the country’s eastern regions since 2014.

Between 2014 and 2021, Russia’s war killed 3,400 civilians and injured 9,000, according to the UN. The number of civilian casualties almost tripled when Russia unleashed its full-scale invasion, with 9,700 dead and 17,750 wounded.

Half of the casualties after 2022 were recorded in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Ukrainian authorities say, however, that the civilian casualties in occupied territories are impossible to count. Ukraine has said that in Mariupol alone, at least 11,000 civilians could have been killed during Russia’s months-long siege between February and May 2022.

It’s unclear if these places will ever be rebuilt. Even if they are, they changed forever.

The Kyiv Independent has compiled a series of photographs showcasing the stark contrast between what these places looked like before and after the full-scale invasion, alongside locals' memories of cities destroyed or on the brink of destruction.

Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast

When Kateryna Kovalchuk stole a book on Mariupol's old architecture from the school library, little did she know that 15 years later, it would serve as her sole connection to her hometown.

Russia’s months-long siege of Mariupol devastated the strategic port city before its forces seized control of it in May 2022. The UN estimates that at least 90% of the city’s residential buildings were damaged or destroyed by the onslaught.

Kovalchuk flips through the book to show the Kyiv Independent her favorite building, the House with Lions. The Art Nouveau mansion built at the turn of the 20th century was impossible to miss among the austere Soviet buildings around it.

She recalls taking walks before the full-scale invasion, saying that she liked to imagine what the city must have looked like 100 years ago.

“I still imagine being there,” Kovalchuk told the Kyiv Independent.

All of Mariupol’s main streets lead to a city garden overlooking the Azov Sea, a popular spot with locals.

From the garden, one also had a view of the gigantic Azovstal steel plant, the Ukrainian military’s last stronghold in Mariupol that is now synonymous with Ukraine’s defense of the city in the early days of the full-scale invasion.

Russia’s brutal siege of Mariupol, once home to 500,000 people, heavily damaged the Azovstal plant, Kovalchuk’s home, and the House with Lions.

Kovalchuk said she doesn't recognize the footage of the hometown she used to explore.

"What scares me the most is that (sometimes) I can't even recognize any landmarks," she said.

Andrii Kiurdzhiev also hung out at the observation deck in the city garden. He loved watching people calmly staring at the horizon during the eight years he lived in Mariupol.

Two years after fleeing, he is still attached to Mariupol’s seaside.

“I can’t imagine how it is possible to live in a city without the sea,” Kiurdzhiev told the Kyiv Independent.

Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast

Andrii Kiurdzhiev fled his native Avdiivka in June 2014 after Kremlin-backed proxies captured the town and a string of others in April 2014.

To escape the fighting around Avdiivka, he moved 100 kilometers south to the city of Mariupol, which had recently been liberated by Ukrainian forces in June 2014 after a month under Russian proxy control.

Ukraine managed to retake both places in the summer of 2014. But as of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Russia has captured both cities, practically razing them to the ground in the process.

After months of intense battles, Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from Avdiivka in late February 2023 as it became increasingly clear that Russian forces were close to encircling them.

Once home to almost 30,000 people, the city has been flattened to something resembling a large plot of land scattered with the occasional carcass of a destroyed building.

The coke plant — central to the town’s life and the Ukrainian military’s last stronghold in the city — has been taken over by Russian troops.

Kiurdzhiev worked at the plant maintaining one of its turbines. After shifts, he said he would grab his guitar and ride his bicycle to a nearby quarry.

The apartment building where Kiurdzhiev used to live collapsed after it was struck in a Russian attack in October 2023. After seeing footage of the rubble that used to be his home, Kiurdzhiev said he just hoped his bicycle was still in the basement.

Remembering the town, he says it felt like a “dream suburban city compared to American standards, just without the white picket fences.”

After losing two homes to Russia’s 10-year war, Kiurdzhiev says he’s emotionally drained.

"I have no home, nothing. Now I need to survive and search for a new place to call home rather than lamenting the loss of the old one," Kiurdzhiev told the Kyiv Independent from Lviv, where he lives now.

Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast

West of Avdiivka, daily Russian missile attacks constantly hit the small but strategic town of Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast.

Before the war, the predominantly industrial Kurakhove, located on the banks of a large water reservoir, had little to offer its residents. Iryna Ivanchenko and her friends spent most of their time outdoors in nature.

She says they used to go to the bank opposite their homes and walk through the bushes to a hilltop. They’d watch the sunset and stare up at the sky full of stars for hours, she remembers.

Today, civilians can't reach this high ground as it's considered militarily strategic.

"Many places related to my childhood have been destroyed, including the House of Culture where I used to dance, my kindergarten, and school," Ivanchenko told the Kyiv Independent.

“I'm afraid of losing my home and never being able to return because the Russians are razing cities in Donbas to the ground,” she said.

Ivanchenko said that after her classroom survived a Russian attack, she held onto some hope that the school could be rebuilt.

But the last time she was in Kurakhove to visit her parents who have remained in July 2023, the classroom hadn't made it through another Russian attack.

“I don’t have any place now where I could bring my future children and say, your mom spent time here or studied here,” she said.

Niu-York, Donetsk Oblast

A similar strategically important hilltop is located some 50 kilometers east of Kurakhovke in the town of Niu-York, Donetsk Oblast.

The high point offers a 360-degree view of an area that has been a war theater for the last 10 years.

The Russian-occupied city of Horlivka and the road connecting it with Toretsk are visible to the naked eye six kilometers east down the hill. Other occupied or destroyed settlements are also in sight.

The hilltop was an unofficial landfill before a group of young people got together to clean it up in May 2021, said Khrystyna Shevchenko, a local who led the NGO Youth Initiative of Ukrainian Niu-York.

“Coming here to the hilltop, young people understand (the real) a dream of liberating Horlivka as well as a free and independent Ukraine,” Shevchenko told the Kyiv Independent.

The group also worked on efforts to rename the city from its Soviet name Novhorodske to its original name, Niu-York.

German settlers in the 19th century had given the area the name Niu-York after the American city. The Soviets renamed it to sound Russian. Its original name was officially reinstated in July 2021.

The war had been near for years, but this didn’t get in the way of local teenagers from using the hill as a place to party. It was a must-see spot for visitors.

Half of the city’s pre-war population of 24,000 had already fled by the time Russia expanded its invasion in February 2022. The city is now mostly abandoned, Shevchenko said.

The NGO’s 22 members had their meetings at the local Palace of Culture, a sort of community center popular in Soviet times that are still used across Ukraine for a variety of functions and gatherings.

The building now stands in rubble like many other buildings around.

Shevchenko said the stage inside and the arch above it survived, hoping it also could be rebuilt.

"We dream of being able to reconstruct a place where all the local children can come and be together," she said.

Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast

Before the war, it was a two-hour ride from Niu-York to Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast. The road goes through the now-destroyed Bakhmut , Soledar , and Klishchiivka along with dozens of other devastated villages.

The industrial city of Sievierodonetsk had served as the regional capital since the 2014 Russian occupation of Luhansk, the region’s official capital. It was attacked on the first day of the full-scale invasion in Feb. 24, 2022.

The day before the start of the full-scale war, Yevhen, who refused to provide his last name for security reasons, took the last pictures of his favorite lake where a decade earlier he had taken his first-ever photograph.

He took his usual route through leafy streets and by the chemical plant in the industrial zone where he would stop for a coffee.

Yevhen said he returned home without any feelings of anxiety that something might happen.

His intuition failed him. Yevhen awoke around 8 a.m. on Feb. 24, 2022 to his mom calling to tell him that Russia invaded Ukraine . Following the call, two loud explosions shook his nine-story apartment building.

“I panicked so hard as I hadn’t heard explosions for eight years. I thought the building would collapse,” Yevhen told the Kyiv Independent.

The explosions were occurring closer to his home every day. The final warning call that it was time to leave was on March 5, 2022 when a barrage of artillery hit his neighborhood. Three days later, his cat, Tymosha, probably saved Yevhen’s life.

Minutes before their apartment was hit, Tymosha’s meows woke up Yevhen. They took shelter and survived an attack that ruined their apartment. After living in a basement for a month, Yevhen fled the area with his mom and Tymosha.

The Battle of Sievierodonetsk quickly turned into fierce urban warfare . Russian forces devastated the city with artillery and guided bombs before it fell under their control in June 2022.

“I watched a video of my apartment building burning. Watching (footage of Sievierodonetsk) I realized that I walked those streets. Now they're gone,” he said barely above a whisper.

Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast

In neighboring Rubizhne, Oleksiy Artiukh used to start his mornings with breakfast, football programs on TV, and occasionally gazing out the window at the playground below.

He had purchased his apartment a year before the full-scale invasion, planning a future in the developing city surrounded by forests, lakes, and the winding Siverskyi Donets River.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed Russians shortly before the start of the full-scale invasion recognizing the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts occupied since 2014 as “independent states,” Artiukh knew it was time to leave.

"On Feb. 23, 2022, I came to my parents for the last time to bid farewell," Artiukh told the Kyiv Independent.

It was also the last he saw of his now-late grandmother, with whom he spent a lot of time growing up.

A week after he left, Russian troops launched an assault on Rubizhne and urban warfare ensued. The street outside of his old office had turned into a front line.

Those who remained were left with the grim task of burying their loved ones, killed during the urban warfare and shelling, in makeshift graves right in front of their apartment buildings.

One day, scrolling through Instagram, Artiukh stumbled upon a photo of a playground where his windows once overlooked. The image depicted four makeshift crosses protruding from the ground, accompanied by the caption, "My house is no longer a playground."

"At the moment, there were makeshift graveyards of both adults and children in nearly every yard," Artiukh said.

In mid-May 2022, Russian troops occupied the heavily damaged city following more than two months of intense street fighting.

"Now, only remnants remain of the city. The shops and cafes are gone, destroyed by fire and looting, but the store signs are still hanging," said Artiukh.

Popasna, Luhansk Oblast

Yuliia Kanzeba spent her childhood playing piano and drums at the music school near her home in downtown Popasna, a town in Luhansk Oblast with a pre-war population of 20,000 residents.

“I lived at the music school,” Kanzeba told the Kyiv Independent as she spoke with enthusiasm about classical and rock music.

Russia's war has silenced Popasna’s children from playing music. The shelling sounds orchestrated by the Wagner Orchestra, the self-proclaimed nickname of the notorious mercenary outfit Wagner Group, took over.

The Kremlin-backed Wagner Group reduced every settlement to rubble as they advanced toward Popasna .

Two months into the Battle of Popasna, the governor reported grim news: No building had survived the onslaught.

The music school was damaged, and part of Kanzeba's five-story residential building crumbled in a Russian air strike.

"My part of the building is still standing. The invincible part," she said.

Kanzeba remembers the memories of her last visit to her family home two weeks before the invasion. Now, she scours Russian propaganda videos, searching for glimpses of her home.

Such footage is rare since the Russian occupying forces are stationed in her building. The idea of it pains her.

When Wagner seized control of the ravaged town in May 2022, Moscow declared it would not rebuild Popasna.

Despite the bleak outlook, Kanzeba wants to return. She said she will go immediately when Popasna is liberated.

She knows it will be difficult to witness her home, located on Peace Street. "There may be no peace in the city (now), but the street is still there," Kanzeba said.

Russia’s war has destroyed 64 settlements in Luhansk Oblast, equivalent to one-tenth of the region.

“The list shouldn’t be considered final and exhaustive until complete liberation,” Roman Mamedov, regional administration spokesperson, told the Kyiv Independent.

Read also: Alone: Photo project shows wives of fallen soldiers coping with loss, shattered dreams

We’ve been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent .

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Seizing the Initiative in Ukraine: Waging War in a Defense Dominant World

Photo: Yevhenii Zavhorodnii/Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images

Brief by Seth G. Jones , Riley McCabe , and Alexander Palmer

Published October 12, 2023

Available Downloads

• Download the Brief 1789kb

Ukrainian forces retain the initiative in the war but advanced an average of only 90 meters per day on the southern front during the peak of their summer offensive, according to new CSIS analysis. Russia’s extensive fortifications—which include minefields, trench networks, and support from artillery, attack helicopters, and fixed-wing aircraft—have slowed Ukrainian advances. In particular, Russia has expanded the size of its minefields from 120 meters to 500 meters in some areas, making Ukraine the most heavily mined country in the world today. Ukrainian military progress is still possible, but the United States and other Western countries need to provide sustained military aid and other assistance.

Introduction

The war in Ukraine has become a test of political will and industrial capacity between two competing blocks: allied countries aiding Ukraine, such as the United States and numerous countries in Europe and Asia; and axis countries aiding Russia, such as China, North Korea, and Iran. Despite Ukraine’s efforts to liberate territory illegally seized by Russia, offensive operations have been slow. Some policymakers have erroneously argued that poor Ukrainian strategy has contributed to the slow pace of operations. According to proponents of this view, the Ukrainian military mistakenly focused on conducting operations along multiple fronts rather than on a single front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.[1]

To better understand military operations in Ukraine, this analysis asks three questions. What is the state of the offense-defense balance in the Ukraine war? What factors have impacted Ukrainian offensive operations? What are the policy implications for the United States and other Western countries?

Ukrainian operations raise the age-old question in warfare about whether it is easier for militaries to seize territory or defend it. This phenomenon is called the “offense-defense balance,” and it refers to the relative strength between the offense and defense in warfare.[2] The main idea is that there are several factors, such as geography, force employment, strategy, and technology, that can influence whether the offense or defense has the advantage. [3] When the offense has the advantage, it is generally easier for an attacking state to destroy its opponent’s military and seize territory than it is to defend one’s own territory. When the defense has the advantage, it is generally easier to hold territory than it is to move forward and seize it.[4]

This analysis utilizes several sources of information. To understand historical rates of advance, this assessment compiles data on offensive campaigns from World War I through Ukraine’s 2023 offensive.[5] It also examines open-source data on fortifications, unit positions, and the attrition of military equipment. In addition, it uses satellite imagery and drone footage of the battlefield in eastern and southern Ukraine to understand the challenges of offensive operations. Finally, the authors conducted interviews with Ukrainian, U.S., and European military officials.

The analysis comes to three main conclusions. First, defense has the advantage in the war. This reality should not come as a major surprise. Carl von Clausewitz wrote in On War that “defense is a stronger form of fighting than attack” and that “the superiority of the defensive (if rightly understood) is very great, far greater than appears at first sight.”[6] Ukrainian forces averaged approximately 90 meters of advance per day during their recent push on the southern front between early June and late August 2023.

Second, the reason for the slow pace of advance was not poor Ukrainian strategic choices, as some have argued.[7] Instead, it was likely caused by a Ukrainian change in force employment, especially the deliberate adoption of small-unit tactics, and the lack of key technology such as fighter aircraft for suppression of enemy air defense and close air support. In addition, Russia constructed substantial defensive fortifications, including minefields, and utilized attack helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, and unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) against advancing Ukrainian forces.

Third, Ukraine still retains the initiative in the war, and the United States and other Western countries should provide long-term aid packages that help Ukraine strengthen its defense and prevent or deter a Russian counterattack in the future. They should also provide additional aid to help Ukraine on offense to maximize the possibility that it can retake as much territory as possible from Russia. After all, one of the United States’ most significant adversaries, Russia, has been reduced to a second- or third-rate military power without a single U.S. military casualty. As many as 120,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, as well as over 300,000 wounded, and Ukrainian soldiers have destroyed a massive number of Russian weapons systems, from main battle tanks and fighter aircraft to submarines and landing ships.[8] U.S. aid to Ukraine should continue even with U.S. support to Israel likely to grow following the October 2023 Hamas attack, since Russia, Iran, and their partners represent a significant threat to U.S. interests.

The rest of this brief is divided into three sections. The first examines the state of the war and the strength of the defensive advantage in Ukraine. The second section explores the factors contributing to the defensive advantage. The third outlines several policy implications for the United States and other Western countries.

Defense Dominance

In early June 2023, Ukraine began a counteroffensive to retake territory illegally occupied by Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts. Ukraine retains the operational initiative, but its relatively slow pace of advance and the trade-offs it has made to preserve personnel and equipment indicate that the defense has significant advantages.

This section examines Ukraine’s efforts across three main fronts in summer 2023. First, Ukrainian offensive operations were primarily concentrated along the southern front, in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and western portions of the Donetsk Oblast. Second, Ukraine was on the offensive in various locations along the eastern front in the Donetsk Oblast. Third Ukraine conducted raids across the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast, although it did not conduct larger military operation in the region. In addition, Russia and Ukraine were engaged in attacks using missiles, UASs, and special operations forces beyond the front lines in such areas as Crimea.

Southern Front: Beginning in June 2023, Ukraine pursued two main lines of attack on the southern front: one toward the city of Melitopol and other toward the city of Berdiansk. Both cities are transit routes and logistical hubs for Russian forces throughout southern Ukraine and Crimea, the disruption of which represents significant strategic value to Ukraine. However, Ukraine’s progress on the southern front was slow, though deliberate.

Ukraine’s most significant advance was around the town of Robotyne, in the direction of Melitopol. Ukraine advanced a total of roughly 7.6 kilometers from early June to late August 2023—an average of approximately 90 meters per day.[9] This advance was slow even when compared with historical offensives in which the attacker did not draw major benefit from surprise or from air superiority. The Ukrainian offensive did, however, continue to move forward, unlike many historical examples in which the attackers were thrown back.

Ukraine also moved slower than in its previous offensives against Russia, in which it faced less organized defenses. In its 2023 counteroffensive, Ukraine faced a system of fortified defenses —extensively prepared trench lines, minefields, and other fieldworks.[10] During its 2022 counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast, Ukraine advanced 590 meters a day on average through prepared defenses —systems that include fortifications but that nevertheless were limited by time and resource constraints. Around the same time, Ukraine advanced rapidly in a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv Oblast, moving forward 7.5 kilometers a day on average and overcoming hasty defenses —systems constructed either in contact or when contact is imminent with opposing forces, and that therefore depend on enhancing the natural terrain.

Figure 1 shows the average rate of advance for selected combined arms offensives, such as Galicia, the Somme, Gorzia, and Belleau Wood during World War I; Leningrad and Kursk-Oboyan during World War II; Deversoir (Chinese Farm) during the Yom Kippur War; and Ukraine in 2022 and 2023. Cases were selected from a universe of offensive campaigns lasting more than one day in which the attacker advanced, did not achieve substantial or complete surprise, and did not benefit from air superiority. In addition, cases were selected to ensure variation in geography, technology, time period, attacking and defending forces, and average advance. A much larger number of cases were also consulted, though not included in Figure 1.[11]

Seth G. Jones

Riley McCabe

Alexander Palmer

Programs & projects.

• Mapping the War in Ukraine

Slow progress on the southern front does not mean that Ukraine is failing or will fail in its objectives. It merely indicates that seizing terrain is difficult, probably more so than in its previous offensives. It is possible that Ukraine’s rate of advance may accelerate if it can overcome Russia’s defensive positions near the current front lines or if the Russian military experiences operational or strategic collapse. Such changes in fortune are not unprecedented in modern warfare. The Allied breakout from Normandy in Operation Cobra followed 17 days of grinding combat in which General Omar Bradley’s First Army suffered more than 40,000 casualties to advance 11 kilometers, an advance rate of approximately 650 meters per day.[12] It succeeded despite the exhaustion of several of the infantry divisions tasked with the initial penetration, eventually breaking through German lines and advancing another 11 kilometers in the three days following the initial assault. The success was achieved due to German defensive failings and Allied airpower and demonstrates that slow advances are not incapable of becoming rapid breakthroughs.[13] While Ukraine lacks the offensive advantages the Allies enjoyed in Normandy, the Russian military has also not demonstrated the operational competence of the German Wehrmacht in World War II. The example suggests that an accelerated advance remains possible, if unlikely.

Despite the slow progress, Ukraine advanced past the first of three lines of Russian fortifications in some areas along the southern front, as shown in Figure 3. It is possible that a Ukrainian breakthrough of the second line could accelerate the rate of advance, but Russia can probably still limit the strategic impact of a second breakthrough. Russia maintains a third defensive system consisting of a constellation of disconnected fortifications surrounding key cities in the region, as shown in Figure 2.

Attrition ratios also suggest that the cost of seizing terrain has increased. As shown in Figure 4, Ukraine suffered greater attrition in its summer 2023 counteroffensive than in its previous offensives. According to open-source data, Russia lost only 2.0 fighting vehicles (defined as a tank, armored fighting vehicle, or infantry fighting vehicle) for each Ukrainian fighting vehicle destroyed, captured, abandoned, or seriously damaged in its current offensive. This ratio is less favorable to Ukraine than the 3.9 Russian vehicles lost per Ukrainian vehicle during its summer 2022 counteroffensive and 6.7 Russian vehicles lost per Ukrainian vehicle during the counteroffensive that drove Russia back from Kyiv in early 2022.[14] While loss ratios and rates of advance are crude metrics for measuring Ukrainian progress, they together suggest that taking territory has been more difficult in the 2023 offensive than in Ukraine’s previous operations.

Elsewhere along the southern front, Ukraine made limited advances south of the city of Velyka Novosilka in the direction of Berdiansk. Ukrainian forces liberated several towns in their advance south of Velyka Novosilka, engaging in significant fighting. However, Ukraine’s gains in the area represented only approximately 10 kilometers of advance from early June to late August 2023.

Eastern Front: Unlike on the southern front, where Ukrainian offensive operations over the summer represented a new phase in the war, fighting on the eastern front has been continuous in some areas for over a year. Ukraine made marginal gains over the summer in a handful of pockets along the eastern front, particularly in the Donetsk Oblast. One example is around Bakhmut, where Russia has pressed since August 2022 for small territorial gains at high costs to personnel.[15] Beginning in May 2023, however, Ukraine conducted a series of flanking counterattacks, retaking pieces of territory southwest and northwest of the city.

Despite these successes, Ukraine has yet to approach key Russian positions beyond the current frontlines. These include the cities of Donetsk, Makiivka, and Horlivka, as well as the network of Russian fortifications that stretch between them. As CSIS assessed in June 2023, a Ukrainian attempt to push through these cities is unlikely because of the difficulties and likelihood of high casualties in urban warfare.[16] For now, sustained Ukrainian operations on the eastern front have fixed large numbers of Russian forces that otherwise would have been available to reinforce Russian defensive efforts to the south.[17]

Unlike most other locations in Ukraine, Russian forces were involved in limited offensive operations in multiple areas along the eastern front over the summer. In addition to pushing back against Ukrainian gains in the Donetsk Oblast, Russia increased its presence near and attacks against the northern city of Kupiansk, which Ukraine liberated in September 2022.[18]

Dnipro Front: Throughout the summer, Ukraine conducted limited crossings of the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast to perform reconnaissance and raid Russian positions.[19] These crossings vary in size, but they typically involved small groups of Ukrainian soldiers using speedboats to discretely cross the river and execute their missions quickly before returning across to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

It is possible that Ukraine plans to establish and sustain bridgeheads across the river from which to launch larger military operations in the near future. Ukrainian military leaders stated their intent to set the conditions for future larger crossings, including by destroying Russian artillery that could target large river-crossing forces and clearing mines that could slow landing forces.[20] However, even with proper preparation, amphibious assaults are one of the most complex and demanding operations a military can attempt. Any attempt to cross the Dnipro with a large number of forces would likely be discovered and contested by Russian forces in the first line of fortifications that spans from the Dnipro Delta across from the city of Kherson and up the Dnipro River northward. Moreover, even a successful crossing would require complicated logistical support and need to overcome a large number of fieldworks Russia has constructed along the major roads in the region, as shown in Figure 6. For now, Ukraine more likely intends its attacks to fix Russian forces in Kherson, preventing them from redeploying to the southern or eastern fronts.

Beyond the Frontlines: In addition to the fighting on the three fronts, the war has been marked in recent months by intensified missile barrages and escalating naval engagements. Since May, Russia has renewed its long-range UAS and missile attacks in Ukraine. Targets include a mix of critical infrastructure, command and control installations, and other military and civilian targets throughout Ukraine.[21] For its part, Ukraine continues to conduct missile and UAS strikes against Russian military assets, headquarters, and strategic infrastructure in occupied territory.[22] Ukraine has also conducted UAS attacks inside Russia. These attacks have been concentrated in the Bryansk and Belgorod regions near the western border with Ukraine, in Crimea, and in Moscow.[23] On July 30, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that Russian territory was fair game: “Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia—to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural, and absolutely fair process.”[24]

With the termination of a grain export deal in mid-July, tensions escalated in the Black Sea region. Ukraine struck Russian targets—including diesel-electric submarines, air defense systems, amphibious landing ships, radar installations, and infrastructure, such as dry docks—in and around Crimea using UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, UASs, special operations forces, and other weapons systems and forces.[25] On July 17, Ukrainian UASs damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge used by Russia to move supplies and troops into Crimea.[26] On August 24, Ukrainian special operation forces also reportedly conducted a nighttime raid against Russian positions in Crimea.[27] In response to Ukrainian attacks, Russia withdrew the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet, such as attack submarines and frigates, from Sevastopol to other ports in Russia and Crimea.[28]

Over the summer, Russia also conducted a series of attacks against Ukrainian Danube ports that serve as hubs for the export of grain and other food commodities.[29] According to Romanian officials, Russian UASs were flown near and occasionally inside Romanian air space to strike Ukrainian ports, such as Izmail and Reni, just a few hundred yards from Romanian territory. On several occasions, Romanian officials collected fragments from Russian UASs inside of Romanian territory.[30]

Debating Battlefield Performance

Battlefield success hinges on a complex interaction of several factors, including force employment, strategy, technology, leadership, weather, and combat motivation.[31] While Ukraine retains the initiative in the war, Ukraine’s military advance has been relatively slow. Why? This section examines four possible hypotheses: Ukrainian strategy, Russian defenses, Ukrainian technology, and Ukrainian force employment.

Ukrainian Strategy: Some policymakers and analysts contend that poor Ukrainian strategy contributed to the slow pace of Ukrainian operations, though there is little evidence to support this argument.[32] According to proponents, the Ukrainian military focused too much on conducting operations along multiple fronts, rather than concentrating forces on a single front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The military objective in the south—and indeed a major objective of Ukrainian military operations more broadly—appeared to be pushing south to the Sea of Azov, cutting Russian occupation forces in two, severing the land corridor between Russia and occupied Crimea, and retaking such cities as Melitopol.

Instead of focusing on a southeast axis, however, Ukrainian commanders divided troops and firepower between the east and the south. Some U.S. military officials advised Ukraine to concentrate its forces in the south and drive toward Melitopol to punch through Russian defenses. Likewise, some criticized the Ukrainian military for moving forward on multiple axes within Zaporizhzhia Oblast itself rather than focusing on one main axis.[33] The argument about how and where Ukraine should concentrate its offensive efforts is, in part, a debate about force ratios.[34] Proponents of focusing solely on the south argue that massing Ukrainian forces along a single axis in Zaporizhzhia would have allowed Ukraine to achieve the favorable force ratio necessary to generate a significant breakthrough.

But this argument is unpersuasive for at least two reasons. First, Russian military leaders came to the same conclusion and prepared accordingly. They anticipated that Ukrainian forces would likely focus on the southern front and sent forces to fortify Melitopol and Tokmak, as well as other areas in Zaporizhzhia. Second, well-designed mechanized campaigns almost always progress on multiple axes, not just one. Advancing along a single axis allows the defender to fully concentrate on stopping that advance. In this case, the Russians would almost certainly have moved forces from other parts of the theater as rapidly as possible to stop the Ukrainian drive toward Melitopol. Instead, Ukrainian advances in Bakhmut and other eastern areas pinned down Russian forces since Russia was not prepared to lose Bakhmut.

Actual force ratios across the long front lines in Ukraine are impossible to determine using open sources, but there is little reason to believe that Ukraine’s multifront approach was a mistake. To achieve favorable force ratios despite its smaller military, Ukraine would have had to move forces to the decisive point before the Russian defenders could react and surge their own forces to that area.[35] But Russia anticipated that Ukraine would attack in Zaporizhzhia, prepared its most extensive networks of fortifications in the region as shown in Figure 7, and almost certainly planned to redeploy forces to reinforce against a Ukrainian advance there.[36]

As a result, Ukraine likely could not have achieved more favorable force ratios even by massing its forces along one or two axes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. While a more favorable force ratio is always desirable, evidence suggests that a higher concentration of Ukraine’s efforts along the southern front likely would have been met by a higher concentration of Russian forces in heavily fortified terrain.

Russian Defenses: Another possible explanation for Ukraine’s limited progress is that Russian forces constructed and used defensive fortifications effectively. There is some evidence to support this argument. In advance of Ukraine’s offensive, Russia built the most extensive defensive works in Europe since World War II, with expansive fortifications in eastern and southern Ukraine.[37] These defenses consist of a network of trenches, anti-personnel and anti-vehicle mines, razor wire, earthen berms, and dragon’s teeth, as shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Multilayered Defense North of Mykhailivka, Ukraine

Ukraine’s slow advance can be attributed, in part, to Russia’s successes using fortifications to defend against Ukrainian assaults. Across the entire front, Russian troops primarily fought from infantry trench systems. Russian forces in some areas, such as the 7th Guards Air Assault Division, were so thoroughly dug in that Ukrainian forces discovered carpets and pictures on the walls of captured Russian positions.[38]

Russia employed a variety of fortifications to slow the advance of Ukrainian vehicles. However, not all fortifications are created equal. One former Ukrainian commander belittled the effectiveness of Russian dragon’s teeth defenses in September 2023.[39] Based on satellite imagery and other information, CSIS analysis in June 2023 similarly questioned the potential effectiveness of Russia’s dragon’s teeth given the varied quality in their installation and make.[40]

But Russia’s extensive use of mines effectively slowed Ukrainian advances. Ukraine is now the most mined country in the world after Russia expanded the size of minefields from 120 meters to 500 meters.[41] The increased size and frequency of minefields complicated Ukrainian planning and limited the effectiveness of Ukraine’s equipment. For example, when the Ukrainian 47th Assault Brigade and 33rd Mechanized Brigade attempted to cross a minefield north of Robotyne on June 8, 2023, mine-clearing efforts were insufficient. Slowed or disabled by mines, Ukrainian vehicles came under fire from Russian attack helicopters, and Ukrainian soldiers were forced to abandon their equipment and retreat.[42] The incident reportedly resulted in the loss or abandonment of at least 25 tanks and fighting vehicles, although some were later recovered.[43] Drone footage and satellite imagery show a cluster of 11 vehicles damaged and abandoned in one location from the failed advance, as shown in Figure 9.

Figure 9: Damaged and Abandoned Vehicle from an Attempted Ukrainian Advance North of Robotyne, June 2023

Source: Screenshot of video release by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Minefields disrupted Ukraine’s offensive momentum and imposed constraints on Ukraine’s rate of advance. Russian minelaying increased the demand on Ukrainian reconnaissance and engineers and complicates military planning.[44] As a result, Ukrainian operations in mined areas had to be slow and deliberate or risk trapping equipment and personnel on exposed ground.

The terrain in Ukraine increased the effectiveness of Russian defenses. Rows of flat, open farm fields separated by tree lines characterize the southern front. Without air superiority, Ukrainian ground forces had to advance by crossing these fields with little natural cover to conceal their movement. In addition to laying mines, Russia targeted advancing Ukrainian troops and vehicles with artillery fire, attack helicopters, and fixed-wing aircraft. Using thick summer foliage to their advantage, Russia concealed tanks, anti-tank units, and infantry units in the tree lines that border the fields to ambush Ukrainian forces.[45]

In urban areas, Russia used infrastructure to its advantage. Buildings and other structures provide cover to defending forces and enable ambushes. Russia also methodically destroyed roads and created obstacles in urban areas to disrupt the advance of Ukrainian vehicles and channel them into dangerous areas. For example, a Ukrainian assault in late July on the town of Staromaiorske along the southern front was reportedly slowed by a combination of such defenses. [46]

Ukraine’s advance was further complicated by the proliferation of sensors and rapid precision strike capabilities on the battlefield, especially long-range precision fires and UASs. Russia deployed significant numbers of small UASs in contested areas, and some Ukrainian sources reported losing 10,000 UASs every month, which demonstrated the sheer number of these systems being employed on the battlefield.[47] The ubiquity of these systems makes it impossible to establish that sensor saturation and advanced strike capabilities provide a distinct defensive advantage, but there are good reasons to believe this is the case. Sensor saturation creates a “transparent battlefield” in which forces can be found and targeted more easily than in past decades.[48]

The advancement of precision fires and the proliferation of lethal UASs shorten the time it takes to strike enemy forces once they are located. In many cases, a UAS may act as both the sensor and the strike capability. Loitering munitions, for example, can circle battlefields until a target is acquired and approved for an immediate strike. On a transparent battlefield onto which an adversary can rapidly strike detected forces, attackers must distribute further, move more deliberately, make greater use of cover, and more tightly coordinate movement with suppressive fire in order to survive their advance. In contrast, defenders can take advantage of prepared fighting positions that are less exposed both to enemy detection and enemy fire.

Ukrainian Technology: A third possibility is that offense was weakened by insufficient technology, especially weapons systems that would facilitate a breakthrough. There is some evidence to support this argument. Ukraine received significant military assistance from the West, which aided combat operations. Examples include artillery, main battle tanks, armored carriers, ground support vehicles, air defense systems, air-to-ground missiles, manned aircraft, UASs, coastal defense systems, and radar and communications. U.S.-supplied cluster munitions, which can cause devastation over a broader area than ordinary shells, were also helpful for Ukrainian forces. Ukraine used cluster munitions to target Russian troops running across open ground, either to flee or to provide reinforcements. However, Ukraine’s lack of fighter aircraft, disadvantage in fires, and limited enablers made it more difficult to break through Russian lines.[49]

Ukrainian Force Employment: Some have argued that the speed of Ukrainian advances was impacted by its military doctrine and tactical implementation, a combination known as “force employment.”[50] There is some evidence to support this argument.

Choices in how militaries use the soldiers and equipment at their disposal can permit attackers to advance despite the extreme lethality of defenders’ firepower or permit defenders to limit the gains of numerically overwhelming attackers.[51] Effective force employment requires tight coordination between infantry, armor, artillery, and airpower at several organizational levels, as well as high levels of autonomy, initiative, and tactical prowess at lower echelons.

Ukraine changed how it used its forces to reduce its losses while accepting an advance rate much slower than its leaders may have initially desired. There is little doubt that Ukraine’s initial force employment resulted in high rates of attrition. But it remains unclear why Ukraine’s initial force employment resulted in such high losses without generating sizable advances. Training, force structure, organizational culture, or lack of airpower all may have played roles, and the interaction between Russian defenses and Zaporizhzhia’s terrain may have forestalled a mechanized breakthrough independent of those factors.

While granular data on Ukraine’s force employment is scarce, open-source information suggests a shift in tactics after its unsuccessful first assaults. Accounts based on interviews with combatants suggest a change in how Ukraine coordinated its infantry, armor, and artillery.[52] Ukrainian operations in June 2023 appear to have been organized around larger maneuver units than later Ukrainian operations in the summer, which employed smaller infantry units supported by artillery and small numbers of tanks. Analysis by the Royal United Services Institute demonstrates that Ukraine can effectively integrate multiple combat branches at lower echelons.[53]

Ukraine also emphasized destroying Russian artillery as part of its changing offensive strategy. Open-source data shows that Ukraine greatly increased its destruction of Russian artillery systems in late June and early July following its initial failures to advance, as shown in Figure 10.[54] This is consistent with some reporting on Ukraine’s changed operational approach.[55] This appears to mark a shift toward destroying enemy artillery before advancing and away from the combined arms approach of advancing while simultaneously suppressing the enemy using artillery fire.

These changes were associated with a significant decrease in Ukrainian losses. U.S. and European officials reported that Ukraine lost as much as 20 percent of the weapons sent to the battlefield in the first two weeks of the offensive, a rate that prompted Ukrainian commanders to reevaluate their tactics.[56] After adopting an operational approach centered around small-unit probes and attrition by artillery and UAS strikes, Ukrainian equipment loss rates were cut in half, with approximately 10 percent of equipment lost in the next phase of operations.[57] In a war of attrition, such a decrease in loss rates was probably seen by Ukrainians as worth the slow pace of advance.

The key question of whether Ukraine’s initial mechanized assaults would have succeeded if executed with greater skill is unanswerable, despite remarks made by some military officials, political figures, and security analysts.[58] Effective coordination between branches of arms might have allowed Ukraine to break through Russian lines. It is also plausible that Ukraine’s lack of air superiority on a sensor-saturated battlefield would have limited the benefits of such coordination. Previous analysis of World War II breakthroughs suggests that skillful implementation of combined arms tactics have mattered for successful offensive operations, but also that preponderance of firepower, operational maneuverability, speed, surprise, and air dominance have also influenced the likelihood of a breakthrough and exploitation.[59] There is little reason to believe that more effective combined arms tactics would have been sufficient to achieve the breakthrough that Ukraine and its backers initially hoped for in the summer of 2023 without the advantages of surprise and air superiority.

Policy Implications

Opposition to providing further aid to Ukraine is building among some members of U.S. Congress, as highlighted in the September 2023 stopgap spending bill that did not include additional money for Ukraine. Some argue that the United States should concentrate exclusively on countering China in the Indo-Pacific and defending Taiwan. These officials contend that U.S. resources are finite, that weapons exports to Ukraine come at Taiwan’s expense, and that sustained focus on war in Europe benefits China.[60] Some also argue that the United States should prioritize aid to Israel over Ukraine.[61] Others maintain that every dollar spent on Ukraine is a waste of taxpayer money that could be better used on domestic priorities, such as improving healthcare, cracking down on illegal immigration, or combating the spread of fentanyl.[62]

But these arguments are misguided. Continuing aid to Ukraine is essential to prevent authoritarian leaders, such as Vladimir Putin, from achieving their revanchist aims. In fact, Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran have deepened their military, economic, and diplomatic ties since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

U.S. allies and enemies alike see Ukraine as a test of Western resolve. The Ukrainian military still has the initiative in the war and continues to advance forward.[63] Ukraine’s supporters can meaningfully impact two of the factors outlined in the previous section: Ukrainian force employment and technology. The fundamental challenge is that both take time. A war that continues to favor the defense is also likely to be protracted, since Ukrainian advances will likely continue to be slow.

The United States and its Western allies need to be prepared to support a long war and to develop a long-term aid plan. They have already provided extensive training and intelligence to improve Ukraine’s force employment, including combined arms maneuver, air defense, special operations activities, intelligence, and the operation and maintenance of more than 20 military systems.[64] This support needs to continue and adapt as the war evolves.

In addition, Ukraine needs more and better technology in two respects. The first is long-term assistance that will help Ukraine strengthen its defense and prevent or deter a Russian counterattack in the future. Examples include mines, anti-tank guided missiles, air defense systems, stockpiles of munitions, counter-UAS systems, and area-effect weapons, such as artillery.

The second type of assistance is aid that helps Ukraine on offense in the current campaign and maximizes the possibility that it can break through well-fortified areas and retake as much territory as possible from Russia. Examples include a steady supply of munitions; attack aircraft, such as F-16s; long-range missiles, such as MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS); and UASs that can conduct intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and strike missions.

Based on current trends, continuing aid to Ukraine may cost roughly $14.5 billion per year. Figure 11 highlights what this might look like through the end of 2024. This aid has a highly favorable risk-reward ratio. One of the United States’ most significant adversaries, Russia, is suffering extraordinary attrition. As many 120,000 Russian soldiers have died, and perhaps three times that number have been wounded, along with several dozen Russian general officers. Ukrainian soldiers have destroyed substantial numbers of Russian military equipment, such as main battle tanks, armored and infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, artillery, surface-to-air missile systems, fighter aircraft, helicopters, UASs, submarines, landing ships, and a guided missile cruiser.[65] And the United States has lost zero soldiers in the war.

The war is now, in part, a contest between the defense industrial bases of the two sides: Russia and its partners, such as China and Iran; and Ukraine and its partners, including the United States and other Western countries. A decision by the United States to significantly reduce military aid would shift the military balance-of-power in favor of Russia and increase the possibility that Russia will ultimately win the war by seizing additional Ukrainian territory in a grinding war of attrition. Too much is at stake. As UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher said to President George H.W. Bush in the leadup to the First Gulf War, after Iraq had invaded Kuwait, “This is no time to go wobbly.”[66]

Seth G. Jones is senior vice president, Harold Brown Chair, and director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Riley McCabe is a program coordinator and research assistant with the Transnational Threats Project at CSIS. Alexander Palmer is a research associate with the Transnational Threats Project at CSIS.

The authors wish to thank Eliot Cohen, Daniel Byman, and Phillips O’Brien for their helpful comments. They also wish to thank Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jennifer Jun for assistance with satellite imagery, as well as Delaney Duff for research assistance.

This brief is made possible through general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this brief.

Please consult the PDF for references.

CSIS Briefs are produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2024 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Air Canada, pilots reach deal, averting strike that could have shuttered operations

After preparing to cancel flights and shut down its operation, Air Canada  will operate normally after it struck a tentative agreement with its pilot union, avoiding a   strike or lockout , the union said on Sunday.

Canada Air (AC.TO ) reached a tentative, last-minute deal with its pilots' union, the Air Line Pilots Association, ALPA, over a new four-year collective agreement, ending the stand-off over pay and benefits that started in May 2023.

“While it has been an exceptionally long road to this agreement, the consistent engagement and unified determination of our pilots have been the catalyst for achieving this contract,” said First Officer Charlene Hudy, chair of the Air Canada ALPA Master Executive Council, MEC, in a statement.

Canada Air, the country's largest airline, prepared to cancel flights progressively over three days and then completely shut down its operations as early as Sept. 18.

"The new agreement recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada's pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline," the carrier said in a statement.

Not over yet: Boeing workers reject contract, go on strike for first time in 16 years

Flights continue to run as usual

As of Sunday, flights will run as usual. Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge operate nearly 670 flights per day, carrying about 110,000 daily passengers, as well as freight.

Air Canada said the terms of its new agreement with the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), representing over 5,400 Air Canada pilots, will remain confidential, pending a ratification vote by members expected to be completed over the next month.

"Ratification requires approval by a majority of the voting membership, who will soon receive the Tentative Agreement for review," said the union in a statement.

The deal, however, would "put an end to our outdated and stale decade-old, ten-year framework," said Hudy.

The ALPA said the deal would mean an additional $1.4 billion in value for members over its four-year term, representing a 46% increase over the previous contract that expired nearly a year ago on Sept. 29, 2023.

If approved by ALPA members, the deal would be backdated to run from Sept. 30, 2023 to Sept. 29, 2027.

Narrow the pay gap

The two sides had been negotiating a new contract for the past 15 months, with the pilots demanding wage rates that would narrow the pay gap with their counterparts at major U.S. carriers, like United Airlines (UAL.O) .

"We have initiated discussions with Air Canada to achieve a contract that closes the growing gaps in wages and quality of life between pilots in the United States and Canada," stated a letter from the union.

Air Canada had offered a wage increase of more than 30%, as well as improved pension and health benefits. However, the union said the proposal was not good enough for their members working under pay rates and quality-of-life provisions negotiated in 2014.

"Air Canada pilots are working under a contract that was negotiated a decade ago, which means our pay rates and quality-of-life provisions are effectively frozen in time," according to the union's website. "Since that time, Air Canada has grown significantly, making billions in profit, and Air Canada’s top corporate executives have seen their salaries double."

Canadian's pilot salaries vs. U.S. counterparts

Pilots at U.S. airlines have negotiated hefty pay raises in new contracts in the past two years amid a travel boom and staffing shortages. United's new pilot contract, for example, included pay increases of about 42%.

As a result, some United pilots now earn 92% more than their counterparts at Air Canada, data from the pilots' association shows. In 2013, the pay gap was just 3%.

The government wouldn't intervene

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday the Canadian government  would not intervene  to end the dispute as it did last month within 24 hours to end a strike at the nation's two largest rail companies, Canadian Pacific Kansas City  (CP.TO)  and Canadian National Railway  (CNR.TO) .

Canadian Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon, in a post on X, saluted the efforts of Air Canada and its pilots who he said had shown resolve to get a deal and prevent travel disruptions.

"Negotiated agreements are always the best way forward and yield positive results for companies and workers," he said.