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Latest air traffic forecasts illustrate encouraging recovery and higher growth in global air travel   //

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The latest travel data.

MONTHLY INSIGHTS March 04, 2024

U.S. Travel has temporarily paused our monthly data newsletter, however, the latest travel data is still available via the U.S. Travel Insights Dashboard . This dashboard is updated each month (member login required).

The U.S. Travel Insights Dashboard , developed in collaboration with Tourism Economics, is supported by more than 20 data sources. The dashboard is the most comprehensive and centralized source for high-frequency intelligence on the U.S. travel industry, tracking industry performance, travel volumes and predictive indicators of recovery including air and lodging forecasts, DMO website traffic, convention and group trends, travel spending and losses, traveler sentiment, among others to measure the health of the industry.

Key Highlights January 2024:

• Travel appetite started the year on a softer note, but overall growth continued. Air passenger growth remained positive, up 6% versus the prior year but lower than the double-digit growth seen through 2023. Foreign visits remained strong, up 24% YoY.
• Hotel room demand continued a trend of slight contraction falling 1% versus the prior year, while short-term rental demand grew 1%, a lower rate than 2023.
• A particular bright spot was that group room demand within the top 25 markets displayed solid growth of 9% relative to the prior year.
• The outlook for the economy remains fairly optimistic due to the strength of the labor market, looser financial conditions and healthy household and nonfinancial corporate balance sheets. This has filtered through to slightly higher consumer sentiment in February.
• Sentiment is also growing for upcoming leisure travel in 2024. The share of travelers reporting having travel plans within the next six months increased to 93% in January from 92% in December, according to Longwoods International’s monthly survey.
• Travel price inflation (TPI) fell slightly in January as a result of falling transportation prices. Sticky services inflation should see relief from decelerating wage growth. However, upside risks stem from rising healthcare costs, supply chain disruptions and slowing labor supply. Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics

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Air travel set to soar to pre-pandemic levels in 2023: UN aviation agency

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Air passenger demand in 2023 will rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes, the UN aviation agency said on Wednesday.

“Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national, and global levels, and will consequently be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Salvatore Sciacchitano, President of the International Civil Aviation Organization ( ICAO ) Council.

NEWS: ICAO forecasts complete and sustainable recovery and growth of air passenger demand in 2023 https://t.co/R5mHl6nKKp #aviation #flying https://t.co/WQyxRxOrjt ICAO icao February 8, 2023

Using advanced big data analytics, ICAO forecasts that the surge in demand will be seen by the end of the first quarter. By year’s end, the agency predicts growth of about three per cent on 2019 figures.

Strong recovery momentum

“The air passenger forecasts ICAO is announcing today, build on the strong momentum toward recovery in 2022 , as previously assessed by ICAO statistical analysis,” ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar said.

“Through ICAO, governments have reached agreements on goals toward zero accident fatalities by 2030 and zero carbon emissions by 2050 goals, and these will continue to play key roles in both guiding continued progress and in prioritizing ICAO’s implementation support initiatives.”

50 per cent growth

The swift recovery of most international routes lies behind the optimistic predictions, ICAO reported. The number of air passengers carried in 2022 rose by an estimated 47 per cent compared to the previous year.  ICAO also observed an estimated 50 per cent jump in growth of airlines’ annual passenger revenues from 2021 to 2022.

• International Civil Aviation Organization

After a Rocky Start to the Year, Experts Predict What’s Next for Air Travel in 2024

There will be more fliers and (hopefully) fewer delays and cancellations. but other aspects of air travel are less clear..

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What is known and what are the unknowns for 2024? We asked insiders.

Photo by Justin Lim/Unsplash

In 2024, more of us, apparently, are resolving to take more trips by air. Or at least that was how it was looking before two back-to-back in-flight incidents kicked off the start of the year: the Japan Airlines airplane that burst into flames after a runway collision, and the Alaska Airlines plug door blowing out that led to the global grounding of Boeing 737-9 Max planes.

This year, despite some nervousness fliers may be feeling in the aftermath of said incidents, air travel volume is expected to reach “an historic high,” with 4.7 billion air passengers expected worldwide, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). That exceeds not just 2023’s total of 4.4 billion, but also the pre-pandemic 2019 total of 4.5 billion.

Airlines have “come roaring back to pre-pandemic levels of connectivity,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, adding that “the speed of the recovery has been extraordinary.” Looking ahead, 44 percent of those polled in a recent IATA consumer survey say that they will travel more in the next 12 months than in the previous 12 months.

In the United States, the story is similar, said Helane Becker, an airline analyst with investment bank TD Cowen, who noted that passenger volume at Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints was up 11.6 percent in 2023, with an average of 2.3 million travelers daily—and that will rise at least 5 percent in 2024. Unless TSA adds more screeners, that could lead to longer airport lines. In peak periods “we will regularly see days when 3 million people travel through airports,” Becker said.

How will the recent safety scares affect operations? What does the higher number of travelers mean for airfares this year? And will we see additional operational struggles like the snafus that roiled holiday travel a little more than a year ago? We asked experts to weigh in. Here are their predictions for what flying will be like in 2024.

Air travel safety is being called into question amid Boeing 737-9 Max groundings

After a series of close calls at airports last year, air safety standards were already under the microscope in 2023. But when the new year began with two serious accidents, the Boeing 737-9 Max scare , which followed a crash at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport , the issue became a front-page story.

After immediately grounding 171 Boeing 737-9 Max planes in the United States and in countries with direct flights to the U.S., the FAA on January 12 said that it would be increasing its oversight of Boeing production and manufacturing. The move came one day after the FAA said that it had “formally notified Boeing that the FAA has launched an investigation into the company as a result of last Friday’s incident on a Boeing Model 737-9 MAX in which the aircraft lost a passenger door plug while in flight.”

It’s unclear how long it will be before the 737-9 Max planes can return to service. Last week, United reported that it had found loose bolts on Boeing 737-9 Max airplanes during fleet inspections, furthering concerns.

The Alaska plane is not the same version of the 737 as the Max 8, which had two fatal crashes that prompted a nearly two-year worldwide grounding of the Max series starting in 2019. But given that it is part of the same aircraft family, the incident is raising some questions among travelers about its overall safety record.

“The outcome could have been a lot worse” if the Alaska aircraft had been at cruising altitude (about 34,000 feet), said John Goglia, a former member of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and an aviation safety consultant.

The head of NTSB, Jennifer Homendy, said at a news conference following the Alaska Airlines incident that the agency is going to pore over maintenance and safety records to determine the cause of the accident, which could take some time. But she also reassured the traveling public that air travel is safe.

“We have the safest aviation system in the world,” she said, adding that the United States “sets the standard for air safety” globally.

This issue—and the concerns it has sparked—isn’t going away anytime soon, and we can expect air travel safety to be top of mind for travelers and the industry for weeks and possibly months to come.

Airlines will fix operational woes—or face the consequences

No airline has gotten got a bigger black eye over flight snafus lately than Southwest—which, despite its mega-airline size, was tripped up in late 2022 during a weather-related meltdown by its antiquated technology, including a woefully outdated crew-scheduling system. The airline paid dearly for the mess, and not just in damage to its reputation; last month, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) socked it with a record $140 million fine .

But the implications for fliers go well beyond one airline: $90 million of the fine will go directly into a fund to compensate passengers who are delayed more than three hours, and industry watchers fully expect this three-hour rule will take effect across the industry. Consumer advocates say this signals a tougher stand on airline service issues that are clearly under the carrier’s control, including inadequate staffing to meet published schedules.

As Southwest CEO Bob Jordan told the Wings Club in New York last month (just as the DOT news was about to break), the airline has invested more than $1 billion in new systems that will not only help get crews to where they need to be but also enable the airline to better manage flights in bad weather. “Going forward, this is about running a great operation, and we will not stop working on it until we get it done,” Jordan said.

“The message is, if you don’t invest in the product, the consequences can be devastating,” said William McGee, senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project. He predicts that the current leadership at DOT, “the most pro-consumer in U.S. history,” will be even more active on air passenger rights in 2024.

As part of that effort, DOT has signaled it will probe airline loyalty plans for evidence of “unfair and deceptive” practices, in response to a rise in complaints about changes in the award levels required to redeem tickets, among other things.

Don’t count on (much, if any) airfare relief

In 2023, as leisure travel rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, consumers got sticker shock as fares rose well above the rate of inflation—in some markets by as much as 15 to 20 percent—mainly because capacity was still down due to a lag in aircraft deliveries.

But heading into 2024, demand is still outpacing the number of available seats, and according to some experts, that situation may continue well into the year.

“Airfares are probably going to be higher [in 2024] because it simply comes down to supply and demand,” said Michael Derchin, a long-time Wall Street airline analyst who pens the newsletter Heard in the Hangar.

“Supply is tight and demand is high, and supply is tight for reasons that are totally out of the control of the airlines,” he said. And major aircraft manufacturers continue to have supply chain problems.

In addition, while most U.S. airlines are in the black, their costs are going up. Fuel prices have stabilized recently, but “the airlines’ single biggest cost by far is labor, accounting for about 40 percent of total expenses, and this year there’s been a significant increase in wages” thanks to airline unions’ success in bargaining for better pay and benefits, Derchin said.

The main takeaway: If you see a good flight deal, grab it. Prices aren’t likely to descend.

Hidden and ancillary fees don’t appear to be going away

Logic would dictate that if people are paying higher-than-expected prices, they should expect to get more for their money. Right? Not so fast, said Henry Harteveldt, travel industry analyst and co-founder of Atmosphere Research.

Ancillary fees, such as baggage fees and additional costs for seat selection and other services—which have drawn much criticism from Congress and the Biden administration—“are here to stay,” he said. He noted that Alaska Airlines is raising the price of checking a bag from $30 to $35 . “That has not increased in a while, and other airlines will follow suit,” he said.

Expanded international service

On the bright side, there will likely be more flight choices to destinations abroad in 2024. “Major airlines are adding international flights with a focus on restoring seasonal capacity and adding new flights to the Pacific region,” said TD Cowen’s Becker. She also cited what might be described as the Taylor Swift effect: major events that stimulate a lot of airline traffic. Watch for flights to fill up to the Paris Olympics this summer, and to destinations on the superstar’s international tour this year.

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‘Worse Than Anyone Expected’: Air Travel Emissions Vastly Outpace Predictions

The findings put pressure on airline regulators to take stronger action to fight climate change as they prepare for a summit next week.

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By Hiroko Tabuchi

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Greenhouse gas emissions from commercial air travel are growing at a faster clip than predicted in previous, already dire, projections , according to new research — putting pressure on airline regulators to take stronger action as they prepare for a summit next week.

The United Nations aviation body forecasts that airplane emissions of carbon dioxide , a major greenhouse gas, will reach just over 900 million metric tons in 2018, and then triple by 2050.

But the new research, from the International Council on Clean Transportation , found that emissions from global air travel may be increasing more than 1.5 times as fast as the U.N. estimate. The researchers analyzed nearly 40 million flights around the world last year.

“Airlines, for all intents and purposes, are becoming more fuel efficient. But we’re seeing demand outstrip any of that,” said Brandon Graver , who led the new study. “The climate challenge for aviation is worse than anyone expected.”

Airlines in recent years have invested in lighter, more fuel-efficient aircraft, and have explored powering their planes with biofuel.

Over all, air travel accounts for about 2.5 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions — a far smaller share than emissions from passenger cars or power plants. Still, one study found that the rapid growth in plane emissions could mean that by 2050, aviation could take up a quarter of the world’s “carbon budget ,” or the amount of carbon dioxide emissions permitted to keep global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

The decision by Greta Thunberg, a young climate activist, to sail across the Atlantic rather than travel by air ahead of her speech at the United Nations next week, has refocused attention on aviation’s role in causing climate change and its consequences, including sea-level rise and more intense heat waves, hurricanes, flooding and drought.

Climate protesters have said they plan to gather in Montreal next week, where airline regulators are set to hold their own summit.

William Raillant-Clark , a spokesman for the U.N. aviation body, stood by its emissions projection , which he said was “the most up-to-date” and provided “a clear picture on the future environmental trends.” He added that the group “endorses and welcomes wholeheartedly” calls for the aviation industry to address climate change with greater urgency.

Underlying the growth in aviation emissions is the rapid expansion of air travel worldwide, propelled by a proliferation of low-cost airlines and a booming tourism industry catering to a growing middle class.

A separate study released this week by the industry group Airports Council International found that the world’s fastest-growing airports were in emerging economies; 12 of the top 30 were in either China or India.

Still, the new data from the clean transportation council found that flights from airports in the United States were responsible for almost one quarter of global passenger flight-related carbon dioxide emissions. China was the next biggest source of passenger aviation emissions, followed by the United Kingdom, Japan and Germany ; the lowest-income countries that contain half the world’s population accounted for only 10 percent of all emissions.

The study underscored the heavy carbon-dioxide footprint of domestic flights, often left out of negotiations over global emissions-reduction targets. Domestic travel accounted for a large majority of departures in countries including the United States, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Australia.

Governments have pledged to take major steps to improve fuel economy in their routes and fleets. Under a plan adopted by the U.N. body, the International Civil Aviation Organization , three years ago, airlines will start to voluntarily offset most of the growth in their carbon dioxide emissions beginning in 2020. Carbon offsets compensate for emissions by canceling out greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere in the world. (For example, the offset may involve paying for renewable energy or other programs designed to reduce emissions.)

Some governments have suggested going further. In Germany, the Green Party has suggested banning domestic air travel altogether to force Germans to travel by train, which pollutes less.

“At a time when students are going on climate strikes around the world, this will really put pressure on the aviation industry to be much more ambitious,” said Annie Petsonk, international counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund. “They’re beginning to understand that for most people who fly, aviation is the biggest part of their personal carbon footprint.”

For more news on climate and the environment, follow @NYTClimate on Twitter .

An earlier version of this article misstated the nature of a global aviation summit meeting in Montreal next week. While industry representatives will be present as observers, the meeting is for airline regulators and diplomatic delegations, not executives.

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Hiroko Tabuchi is a climate reporter. She joined The Times in 2008, and was part of the team awarded the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for Explanatory Reporting. She previously wrote about Japanese economics, business and technology from Tokyo. More about Hiroko Tabuchi

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• Global air traffic - annual growth of passenger demand 2006-2024

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Travel Inflation Report: May 2024

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How airfares have changed

How hotels room rates have changed, how rental car prices have changed, how restaurant prices have changed, how the price of movies, theaters and concerts has changed, smart money move: use travel rewards cards to book, if you’re planning to travel in 2024 ….

Some good news for travelers: Airfares, car rental and hotel prices in April were down compared to the same month last year. Falling travel prices is a bright spot for customers, considering that the price of pretty much everything else is going up. In fact, average consumer prices across all items rose 3.4% year-over-year through April.

According to NerdWallet's Travel Price Index, the overall cost of travel is down 1% from the same month in 2023 and up 15% compared with April 2019 (the last fully-normal April before lockdowns). In short, expect the same trip taken this year to cost slightly less than it did this time last year, but more than it would if you had taken the trip before the pandemic.

Despite travel costs declining year-over-year, there are still things you can do to reduce the price of your trip. Check out our smart money suggestions below.

NerdWallet's Travel Price Index combines data from individual travel categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index data, such as airfares, lodging, meals and rental cars.

Overall prices for the past 12 months through April 2024 rose 3.4% before seasonal adjustment. Still, not every individual line item experiences inflation at the same rate — especially when it comes to travel prices. Some types of trips might actually be more or less expensive than in the past, depending on if your trip involves airfare versus driving, if you’re staying in a hotel and whether it involves a rental car.

To help you better understand how travel prices have changed, NerdWallet honed in on five categories:

Car rentals.

Food away from home.

Movies, theaters and concerts.

NerdWallet then compared those costs to their same prices a month ago and a year ago. And given how significantly COVID-19 altered the state of travel, the data also compares today’s prices to the same cost of those things pre-pandemic. For example, April 2024 is compared to April 2019 as the last corresponding pre-pandemic month.

Here’s what today’s travel prices look like:

When comparing April 2024 prices versus April 2023, U.S. airfares are down 5.8%. Compared to pre-pandemic prices, airfares are about 3.2% in April 2024 versus April 2019. That's not a lot considering average prices as a whole are up by 22.7% since April 2019.

Prices for lodging away from home — including hotels and motels in U.S. cities — did increase 1% month-over-month. Though, they are actually slightly down from last year, falling by 0.4% versus April 2023.

Unlike airfares that are barely higher than pre-pandemic prices, hotel and motel prices are significantly higher than what they were pre-pandemic — though still not as high as the 22.8% all-items average increase.

High rental car prices were one of the biggest stories of pandemic-era travel. Though prices have leveled off, they are still up an astounding 36.1% versus the same month in 2019. Still, the costs are better now than they were a year ago. Car rental prices are down 10.1% year-over-year.

Food prices consistently rise nearly every month, and this month was no exception. In April 2024, the cost of food away from home was up 4.2% versus the same month in 2023.

And prices are far higher than pre-pandemic, with April 2024 prices coming in at 29.4% higher than what they were in April 2019. That's higher than the inflation rate across all items, suggesting that restaurant prices have risen more than many other categories of goods.

Like restaurants, entertainment prices see fairly consistent increases — save for a small dip in 2020. Prices are now up 22.2% from what they were in March 2019, basically in line with the general rate of inflation.

The price for tickets to movies, theaters and concerts is up 3.4% year-over-year.

Paying for travel with points and miles versus cash isn’t as daunting a task as it may seem. Frequent flyer miles and hotel points can be accrued not just for recurring travel, but through other outlets as well. Credit card rewards and welcome bonuses can be one of the most popular ways to accrue a big stash of points for a lot less effort than living your life out of a suitcase.

In addition, travel credit cards can offer various money saving perks, like:

Complimentary trip insurance .

Savings on checked bags .

Waived foreign transaction fees .

Airport lounge access .

Cash back credits that can offset the annual fee.

Here's a sampling of cards that offer travel-related statement credits.

on Chase's website

on Bank of America's website

on Citibank's application

• 10 points per $1 on Chase Dining, hotel stays and car rentals purchased through Chase.

• 5 points per $1 on air travel purchased through Chase.

• 3 points per $1 on other travel and dining not booked with Chase.

• 1 point per $1 on other purchases.

• 5 points per $1 on prepaid hotels and car rentals booked directly in the Altitude Rewards Center.

• 3 points per $1 on eligible travel purchases and mobile wallet spending on Apple Pay, Google Pay and Samsung Pay.

• 1 point per $1 on all other purchases.

• 10 ThankYou® points per $1 spent on hotels, car rentals and attractions booked through the Citi Travel site.

• 3 points per $1 on air travel and other hotel purchases.

• 3 points per $1 on supermarkets.

• 3 points per $1 on gas stations and EV charging stations.

• 3 points per $1 on restaurants.

$300 annual travel credit .

$325 annual credit.

$100 in airline incidental statement credits.

If you’re building your next vacation budget based on an early-pandemic-era trip, expect to pay far more now for pretty much every expense. Yet even though prices constantly feel like they’re getting higher, you can still save on travel with a little planning.

To avoid the costs of eating out, head to local grocery stores — which can be a fun activity on its own — or pack snacks from home. While in an airport, head to the lounge. Many credit cards have partnerships with airport lounge operators ( Priority Pass is a popular one) where you can typically expect complimentary snacks and drinks.

Methodology

NerdWallet conducted an analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, which was most recently updated in May 2024 and measures prices of items like travel, groceries and cars. Prices usually change every month, but some prices change more than others.

Keep in mind, this data is based on April 2024 information, even though it is released in May 2024, so prices you actually see may have actually improved (or gotten even worse) than this data, because it lags one month behind.

And even within the realm of travel, some expenses might go up, while others might go down.

The NerdWallet Travel Price Index combines data from the Consumer Price Index, weighted by the estimated spending in each category, which is based on 2019 travel expenditure data from the BLS.

Here are the spending categories considered, and how heavily each was weighted:

Flights: 29%.

Car rental: 13%.

Lodging: 30%.

Entertainment: 7%.

How to maximize your rewards

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Flight Prices Are Predicted to Increase Through June, According to New Report

Travel app Hopper is expecting ticket prices to rise at an average of 7% a month through June.

Meena Thiruvengadam is a lifelong traveler and veteran journalist who has visited more than 50 countries across six continents. Her writing has appeared in The Wall Street Journal , Departures , TripSavvy , and other publications.

Although air travel has gradually made a comeback since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, travelers continue to navigate the virus — and the price changes that come with it.

According to the Consumer Airfare Index Report , released by travel app Hopper on Wednesday, both domestic and international airfares are currently at record lows but are expected to rise in the first half of 2022.

Currently, at around $649 roundtrip, international airfares are lower than they've ever been in January while at $234 roundtrip, domestic airline ticket prices are near historic lows as well.

However, even though it's not unusual for flight prices to dip after the holidays, Hopper is expecting ticket prices to rise much faster than usual at an average of 7% a month through June when customers can expect to pay around $315 roundtrip domestically. The hike in fare prices may be due to the omicron variant subsiding and as spring break travel is on the horizon.

In fact, the steepest single-month increase — around 11% — is expected in March, just in time for spring break .

As for those looking to leave the states, Hopper expects international flight prices to rise at a slower rate when compared to domestic airfares but still faster than usual at a 5% a month increase through June with peak fares estimated at approximately $830 round trip.

"Prices have been especially volatile between the delta and omicron variant waves, swinging nearly $200/round-trip twice over four months," Hopper said in its report, noting that airfare prices typically rise around 2% a month going into the summer months.

Fortunately, average airline ticket prices are expected to catch up to pre-pandemic levels around April, the company found.

When it comes to the destinations themselves, domestic search trends among Hopper users included flights to Orlando, Las Vegas, and Miami while those looking to fly international were searching for flights to London, Cancun, and Paris.

As for vacation spots on the rise, the travel app found that there was increasing interest in Reno, San Jose, and Kansas City. Internationally Hopper found that Dublin, Rio de Janeiro, and Santiago were the highest trending destinations.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also made last-minute trips or booking within a shorter time window. Hopper users looking to book a domestic trip are searching about 35 days before departure while those looking to travel internationally are searching for a flight about 55 days before leaving.

"Few travelers are willing to make a bet this early on booking an international trip later in the year," the report noted.

Meena Thiruvengadam loves wandering new streets and discovering the world's stories. Find her on Facebook , Instagram , or at the airport, and subscribe to her newsletter .

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Air Travel Consumer Report: March 2024 Numbers

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) today released its Air Travel Consumer Report (ATCR) on airline operational data compiled for the month of March 2024 for on-time performance, mishandled baggage, mishandled wheelchairs and scooters, and 1st quarter oversales. The ATCR is designed to assist consumers with information on the quality of services provided by airlines. 

For March 2024, 0.9% of flights were cancelled, lower than the 1.3% cancellation rate for March 2023 and the 2.0% cancellation rate for pre-pandemic March 2019.  

DOT expects that airlines will operate flights as scheduled and that when they do not, airlines will provide consumers the services promised when a flight is cancelled or delayed because of an airline issue. After a two-year DOT push to improve the passenger experience, the 10 largest airlines now guarantee meals and free rebooking on the same airline and nine guarantee hotel accommodations. Consumer-friendly information regarding airline commitments to their customers is available on the Department’s Airline Customer Service Dashboard at FlightRights.Gov . DOT also pushed airlines to provide fee-free family seating and rolled out a new family seating dashboard that highlights the airlines that guarantee fee-free family seating, and those of the 10 largest that do not, making it easier for parents to avoid paying junk fees to sit with their children when they fly.

DOT recently announced two final rules that require airlines to provide automatic cash refunds to passengers when owed and protect consumers from costly surprise airline fees . These rules will significantly expand consumer protections in air travel, provide passengers an easier pathway to refunds when owed, and save consumers more than half a billion dollars every year in hidden and surprise junk fees. Provisions of the final rule on airline refunds were fortified through the FAA reauthorization bill that President Biden signed into law on May 16, 2024.

In addition, DOT is improving transportation for individuals with disabilities. In July 2023, DOT finalized a rule which requires airlines to make lavatories on new, single-aisle aircraft more accessible. Then, in February 2024, DOT issued a proposal to address other barriers that Americans who use a wheelchair encounter when it comes to air travel by, among other things, proposing to mandate enhanced training for airline employees and contractors who physically assist passenger with disabilities and handle passengers’ wheelchairs.

Further, when necessary, DOT takes enforcement action against airlines and ticket agents that fail to comply with the Department’s aviation consumer protection requirements. In 2023, DOT issued the largest fines in the history of the consumer protection office. This includes a $140 million penalty against Southwest Airlines for failing passengers during the 2022 holiday meltdown. That penalty, which was in addition to over $600 million DOT already ensured was refunded by Southwest to passengers, requires Southwest to establish a $90 million compensation system for passengers affected by significant delays and cancellations beginning April 30, 2024.  Additionally, DOT has helped return nearly $4 billion in refunds to travelers since the pandemic began.

In April, DOT announced the launch of the bipartisan Airline Passenger Protection Partnership with 18 state attorneys general to investigate airlines and ticket agents and hold them accountable when they violate aviation consumer protection laws. The partnership significantly expands the Department’s oversight capacity by establishing a new fast-track system prioritizing misconduct cases from state attorneys general who uncover unfair or deceptive airline practices. Through the partnership, DOT will provide state attorneys general with access to the federal complaint database and help ensure that airlines cooperate with state investigations.

Flight Operations

The 623,409 flights operated in March 2024 were 102.47% of the 608,387 flights operated in March 2023. Operated flights in March 2024 were up 2.47% year-over-year from the 608,387 flights operated in March 2023 and up 13.46% month-over-month from 549,439 flights operated in February 2024. 

In March 2024, the 10 marketing network carriers reported 628,786 scheduled domestic flights, 5,377 (0.9%) of which were cancelled. In February 2024, airlines scheduled 552,691 domestic flights, 3,252 (0.6%) of which were cancelled. In March 2023, airlines scheduled 616,234 domestic flights, 7,847 (1.3%) of which were cancelled.

March 2024 On-Time Arrival

In March 2024, reporting marketing carriers posted an on-time arrival rate of 78.7%, down from 83.7% in February 2024 and up from 75.4% in March 2023. The year-to-date on-time arrival rate for 2024 is 78.3%.

Highest Marketing Carrier On-Time Arrival Rates March 2024 (ATCR Table 1)

• Hawaiian Airlines – 87.2%
• Delta Air Lines Network – 84.8%
• United Airlines Network – 81.8% 

Lowest Marketing Carrier On-Time Arrival Rates March 2024 (ATCR Table 1)

• Frontier Airlines – 66.4%
• JetBlue Airways – 68.4%
• Spirit Airlines – 69.6%

For the first three months of 2024, the reporting marketing carriers posted an on-time arrival rate of 78.31% up from 76.89% for the same period in 2023.

March 2024 Flight Cancellations

In March 2024, reporting marketing carriers cancelled 0.9% of their scheduled domestic flights, higher than the rate of 0.6% in February 2024 and lower than the rate of 1.3% in March 2023. The year-to-date cancellation rate for 2024 is 1.7%.

Lowest Marketing Carrier Rates of Cancelled Flights March 2024 (ATCR Table 6)

• Delta Air Lines Network – 0.2%  
• Hawaiian Airlines – 0.6%   
• Allegiant Air – 0.6%    

  Highest Marketing Carrier Rates of Cancelled Flights March 2024 (ATCR Table 6)

• Frontier Airlines – 2.7%    
• Spirit Airlines – 1.7%    
• JetBlue Airways – 1.4%    

For the first three months of 2024, the reporting marketing carriers posted a cancellation rate of 1.7%, equal to 1.7% for the same period in 2023.

Complaints About Airline Service

The release of air travel service complaint data in the Air Travel Consumer Report (ATCR) has been delayed primarily because of the continued high volume of complaints against airlines and ticket agents received by the Office of Aviation Consumer Protection (OACP) and the time needed to review and process these consumer complaints. The Department is investing in modernizing its system for handling consumer complaints with the support of a Technology Modernization Fund (TMF) investment to improve the customer experience for the tens of thousands of consumers who use the system each year and enable OACP to more effectively engage in oversight of the airline industry. 

As DOT modernizes its system, given the continued high volume of air travel service complaints concerning airlines and ticket agents, DOT has revised how it processes consumer complaints received after June 1, 2023. From June 2023 until the date its system is modernized, DOT intends to revise the ATCR to display consumer submissions (complaints, inquiries, and opinions) as opposed to complaints for this period. The Department will continue to display civil rights complaints in the ATCR in a similar manner as before and anticipates publishing submission and civil rights complaint numbers for June 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023 in June 2024.

Tarmac Delays

In March 2024, airlines reported six tarmac delays of more than three hours on domestic flights, compared to 10 tarmac delays of more than three hours on domestic flights reported in February 2024. In March 2024, airlines reported one tarmac delay of more than four hours on an international flight, compared to two tarmac delays of more than four hours on international flights reported in February 2024. 

Airlines are required to have and adhere to assurances that they will not allow aircraft to remain on the tarmac for more than three hours for domestic flights and four hours for international flights without providing passengers the option to deplane, subject to exceptions related to safety, security, and Air Traffic Control related reasons. An exception also exists for departure delays if the airline begins to return the aircraft to a suitable disembarkation point to deplane passengers by those times.

The Department investigates extended tarmac delays.

Mishandled Baggage

In March 2024, reporting marketing carriers handled 43.1 million bags and posted a mishandled baggage rate of 0.52%, higher than the rate of 0.48% in February 2024, but lower than the rate of 0.58% in March 2023.

For the first quarter of 2024, the carriers posted a mishandled baggage rate of 0.58%, lower than the first quarter 2023 rate of 0.64%.

The Department began displaying the mishandled baggage data as a percentage (i.e., per 100 bags enplaned) in January 2022. This is consistent with the manner that the mishandled wheelchairs and scooters rate is calculated and displayed.     In the prior three calendar year reports (2019 to 2021), the Department calculated the mishandled baggage rate based on the number of mishandled bags per 1,000 checked bags. 

Mishandled Wheelchairs and Scooters

In March 2024, reporting marketing carriers reported checking 65,793 wheelchairs and scooters and mishandling 859 for a rate of 1.31% mishandled wheelchairs and scooters, higher than the rate of 1.30% mishandled in February 2024 and lower than the rate of 1.33% mishandled in March 2023.

For the first quarter of 2024, the carriers posted a mishandled wheelchair and scooter rate of 1.36%, lower than the rate of 1.40% in the first quarter of 2023.

To address many of the significant barriers and challenges experienced by passengers who use wheelchairs, the Department has proposed a rulemaking that, if adopted as proposed would make it an automatic violation of the Department’s Air Carrier Access Act regulations for airlines to mishandle a passenger’s wheelchair. This Notice of Proposed Rulemaking would also enhance training requirements for airline personnel who provide hands-on transfer assistance to passengers and handle wheelchairs. The proposal is available at https://www.regulations.gov , docket number DOT-OST-2022-0144.

Bumping/Oversales

Bumping/oversales data, unlike other air carrier data, are reported quarterly rather than monthly. For the first quarter of 2024, the 10 U.S. reporting marketing carriers posted an involuntary denied boarding, or bumping, rate of 0.27 per 10,000 passengers, lower than both the rate of 0.29 in the first quarter of 2023 and higher than the rate of 0.20 in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Incidents Involving Animals

As part of its IT modernization, DOT’s Office of Aviation Consumer Protection (OACP) is improving the options for covered carriers to submit their monthly and annual Reports on Incidents Involving Animals During Air Transport. While the new system is being developed, OACP is permitting covered carriers to delay submission of reports on incidents involving animals during air transport. Annual data on such incidents will be published when DOT receives carriers’ complete submissions of the 2023 data. 

In March 2024, carriers reported zero incidents involving the death, injury, or loss of an animal while traveling by air, down from the two reports filed in February 2024, and equal to the zero reports filed in March 2023.

Consumers may file air travel consumer or civil rights complaints online at   https://secure.dot.gov/air-travel-complaint , or they may mail a complaint to the Office of Aviation Consumer Protection, U.S. Department of Transportation, C-70, W96-432, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE, Washington, DC 20590.

The ATCR and other aviation consumer matters of interest to the public can be found at https://www.transportation.gov/airconsumer .

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TSA at SEA and nationally prepared for busy Memorial Day weekend of air travel

SEATTLE - The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is prepared for high passenger volumes leading up to the Memorial Day weekend. TSA projects it will screen more than 365,000 departing travelers at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) from Thursday, May 23 through Tuesday, May 28. This is a 9.6% increase over 2023 volumes.

The two busiest days at SEA are projected to be Thursday, May 23 when more than 69,000 travelers are expected to be screened through the security checkpoints and Friday, May 24 when TSA expects to screen more than 70,000 people.

The busiest times at the checkpoint daily will be 4 a.m. to 8 a.m.; 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. and 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. All travelers will need to arrive early and prepared for every step of the air travel experience.

“We want to assure those traveling out of SEA during the Memorial Day weekend that TSA has plans in place to make the security screening process as streamlined as possible. With the temporary closure of security checkpoint 3, TSA will have all other security checkpoints and lanes in the airport staffed and open,” said TSA Federal Security Director for Washington Greg Hawko. “However, with reduced screening capacity, it is crucial that all travelers listen to directions given by airport customer service staff as well as TSA officers to make the airport experience go smoothly.”

Travel tips Here are some tips to help all travelers have a smooth trip through the security checkpoint at any airport:

• Arrive at the airport early so you can complete every step of the airport process. Allow ample time to park, navigate to the terminal, check luggage and proceed through the TSA security screening checkpoint and get to the gate. Keep in mind, most flights board 30-45 minutes prior to the scheduled departure time.
• Be prepared for any scenario. Have your photo identification and boarding pass ready prior to entering the security checkpoint. This will keep you from slowing down the screening process for you and everyone behind you.
• Listen to directions provided by TSA officers. The advisements are specific to the type of screening you will experience. The information given will make your screening experience quicker and smoother.
• Pack smart. Always start with an empty bag to ensure you don’t inadvertently bring prohibited items to the security checkpoint. Place electronics larger than a cell phone and travel size liquids at the top of your carry-on so they can be easily access if you are required to remove them. Also, be sure that all liquids are 3.4 ounces (100 ml) or less if transporting them through the security checkpoint.
• Get assistance prior to traveling. Ensure that carry-ons do not contain prohibited items since they slow down the security screening process. To determine whether an item is allowed or prohibited in carry-on luggage, download the MyTSA app and use the “What Can I Bring?” feature. Another option is to snap a picture of an item and send it to @AskTSA on Twitter or Facebook Messenger for real-time assistance. Travelers can also send a question by texting “Travel” to AskTSA (275-872).
• Double-check your luggage. Many bags look alike. Prior to traveling, passengers should tag every piece of luggage with their name and address and include additional addresses inside each bag in the event the outside tag falls off. When retrieving luggage at baggage claim, it’s important for passengers to check these tags to ensure they’ve picked up the correct bag. 

Are some routes more prone to air turbulence? Will climate change make it worse? Your questions answered

Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia

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Doug Drury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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A little bit of turbulence is a common experience for air travellers. Severe incidents are rare – but when they occur they can be deadly.

The recent Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 from London to Singapore shows the danger. An encounter with extreme turbulence during normal flight left one person dead from a presumed heart attack and several others badly injured. The flight diverted to land in Bangkok so the severely injured passengers could receive hospital treatment.

Air turbulence can happen anywhere, but is far more common on some routes than on others.

Climate change is expected to boost the chances of air turbulence, and make it more intense. In fact, some research indicates turbulence has already worsened over the past few decades.

Where does turbulence happen?

Nearly every flight experiences turbulence in one form or another.

If an aircraft is taking off or landing behind another aircraft, the wind generated by the engine and wingtips of the lead aircraft can cause “wake turbulence” for the one behind.

Close to ground level, there may be turbulence due to strong winds associated with weather patterns moving through the area near an airport. At higher altitudes, there may be wake turbulence again (if flying close to another aircraft), or turbulence due to updraughts or downdraughts from a thunderstorm.

Read more: What is air turbulence?

Another kind of turbulence that occurs at higher altitudes is harder to predict or avoid. So-called “ clear-air turbulence ” is invisible, as the name suggests. It is often caused by warmer air rising into cooler air, and is generally expected to get worse due to climate change.

At the most basic level turbulence is the result of two or more wind events colliding and creating eddies, or swirls of disrupted airflow .

It often occurs near mountain ranges, as wind flowing over the terrain accelerates upward.

Turbulence also often occurs at the edges of the jet streams . These are narrow bands of strong, high-altitude winds circling the globe. Aircraft often travel in the jet streams to get a speed boost – but when entering or leaving the jet stream, there may be some turbulence as it crosses the boundary with the slower winds outside.

What are the most turbulent routes?

It is possible to map turbulence patterns over the whole world. Airlines use these maps to plan in advance for alternate airports or other essential contingencies.

While turbulence changes with weather conditions, some regions and routes are more prone to it than others. As you can see from the list below, the majority of the most turbulent routes travel close to mountains.

In Australia, the highest average turbulence in 2023 occurred on the Brisbane to Sydney route, followed by Melbourne to Sydney and Brisbane to Melbourne.

Climate change may increase turbulence

How will climate change affect the future of aviation?

A study published last year found evidence of large increases in clear-air turbulence between 1979 and 2020. In some locations severe turbulence increased by as much as 55%.

In 2017, a different study used climate modelling to project that clear-air turbulence may be four times as common as it used to be by 2050, under some climate change scenarios.

What can be done about turbulence?

What can be done to mitigate turbulence? Technology to detect turbulence is still in the research and development phase, so pilots use the knowledge they have from weather radar to determine the best plan to avoid weather patterns with high levels of moisture directly ahead of their flight path.

Weather radar imagery shows the pilots where the most intense turbulence can be expected, and they work with air traffic control to avoid those areas. When turbulence is encountered unexpectedly, the pilots immediately turn on the “fasten seatbelt” sign and reduce engine thrust to slow down the plane. They will also be in touch with air traffic control to find better conditions either by climbing or descending to smoother air.

Ground-based meteorological centres can see weather patterns developing with the assistance of satellites. They provide this information to flight crews in real time, so the crew knows the weather to expect throughout their flight. This can also include areas of expected turbulence if storms develop along the intended flight route.

It seems we are heading into more turbulent times. Airlines will do all they can to reduce the impact on planes and passengers. But for the average traveller, the message is simple: when they tell you to fasten your seatbelt, you should listen.

• Singapore Airlines
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Research Support Officer

Director, Social Policy

Head, School of Psychology

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Climate change and turbulence: Experts weigh in after death on Singapore Airlines flight

One passenger died and 30 others were injured aboard a Singapore Airlines flight that was hit by "severe turbulence," officials said Tuesday, but experts say such deaths are rare even as researchers warn climate change may be causing more extreme cases of turbulence.

Since 2009, the National Transportation Safety Board said, the U.S. has not had any turbulence-related deaths aboard large commercial planes, such as the Boeing aircraft that encountered sudden extreme turbulence over the Irrawaddy River in Myanmar at 37,000 feet .

A 73-year-old passenger who had some medical problems died, possibly from cardiac arrest, and at least seven people were critically injured, Kittipong Kittikachorn, general manager of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport, said at a news conference Tuesday.

The cause of the turbulence is under investigation. Singapore Airlines said the Singapore-bound flight from London encountered severe turbulence about 10 hours after departure.

Death by turbulence rarely occurs, but severe encounters are not uncommon, according to Larry Cornman, a physicist and project scientist with the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research.

“Often, for something like this, it’s just wrong place, wrong time,” said Cornman, who studies small-scale motions of the atmosphere that could endanger aircraft.

Out of millions upon millions of flights, turbulence has caused 185 serious injuries from 2009 to 2023, the latest year with publicly available data, according to the National Transportation Safety Board.

The agency, which requires airlines to report injuries and deaths, categorizes a serious injury as any that requires more than two days of hospitalization; involves any internal organ; or results in bone fractures, second- or third-degree burns, severe hemorrhages, or nerve, muscle or tendon damage.

Of the reported incidents from 2009 to 2022, at least 129 crew members and 34 passengers were injured.

Turbulence-related deaths can be caused by heart attacks or head injuries if a passenger’s head strikes the ceiling or gets hit by falling luggage, Cornman said.

“Anything that could cause a death on the ground can certainly cause it inside an aluminum tube at 35,000 feet,” he said, adding that seat-belted passengers should still feel safe in the skies. 

“These large transport aircraft are built quite strongly. They will not fall apart or come out of the sky due to turbulence,” Cornman said. 

Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, said initial reports appear to indicate that the Singapore flight encountered clear-air turbulence — the most dangerous type because it cannot be seen and is virtually undetectable with current technology.

“One second, you’re cruising smoothly,” Nelson said. “The next, passengers, crew and unsecured carts or other items are being thrown around the cabin.”

Nelson and a group of researchers say such incidents of clear-air turbulence — which is difficult to forecast and avoid because it is not associated with storms — are on the rise due to climate change. 

A 2023 study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters found that severe clear-air turbulence increased by more than 50% over the North Atlantic Ocean from 1979 to 2020.

The uptick in turbulence likely owes to the effect of climate change on wind speeds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the researchers found. Some of the most pronounced increases in clear-air turbulence in recent decades were over mid-latitude regions, including over the North Atlantic and flight routes over the United States, according to the study.

The results suggest that global warming may be driving instability in the jet stream, a conveyor belt of fast-moving air that encircles the globe over the Northern Hemisphere, said Mark Prosser, co-author of the study and a doctoral researcher at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom. 

The jet stream, which flows like a river of air from west to east, is fueled by temperature differences between cooler regions to the north and warmer air masses to the south. Climate change may be throwing the jet stream off-kilter, which could have enormous implications for future air travel, Prosser said.

“Planes like to fly with the jet stream,” he said, “but where planes like to fly is also ironically where all the turbulence is.”

That instability is expected to increase as the world warms. Prosser’s colleagues at the University of Reading separately used climate models to project how clear-air turbulence in the latter half of this century may shift if global warming continues. The researchers found that increasing greenhouse gas emissions also increased turbulence and instability.

“If you compare the climate of 2050 to 2080 with the climate before we started emitting greenhouse gases — so, preindustrial times — there was a doubling, or tripling sometimes, of the amount of clear-air turbulence in the atmosphere,” Prosser said.

A total of 211 passengers and 18 crew members were on the Singapore Airlines flight when it was jolted midair, the airline said in a statement. The plane suddenly fell from 37,000 feet to 31,000 feet within five minutes, according to flight-tracking site FlightAware .

The pilot declared a medical emergency and diverted the plane to Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, where it landed at 3:45 p.m. local time (4:45 a.m. ET), the airline said.

Officials did not release the identity of the deceased passenger Tuesday. 

The people on the flight hailed mostly from Australia, the United Kingdom, Singapore and New Zealand, the airline said. Four passengers were from the United States.

“Singapore Airlines offers its deepest condolences to the family of the deceased,” the statement said. “We deeply apologise for the traumatic experience that our passengers and crew members suffered on this flight.”

Melissa Chan is a reporter for NBC News Digital with a focus on veterans’ issues, mental health in the military and gun violence.

Denise Chow is a reporter for NBC News Science focused on general science and climate change.

Yes, turbulence is getting worse, but deaths are very rare: What to know

• One person is dead, and 30 are injured after a Singapore Airlines flight faced severe turbulence.
• Turbulence is getting worse, and that trend is likely to continue because of climate change.

Deaths from turbulence are extremely rare.

One person is dead, and 30 are injured after a  Singapore Airlines  flight hit severe turbulence.

"We can confirm that there are injuries and one fatality on board the Boeing 777-300ER," said SIA said in a  statement . "There were a total of 211 passengers and 18 crew on board."

Flight SQ321 departed from London's  Heathrow Airport  on a Boeing 777-300ER on Monday and was supposed to land in Singapore, but instead was diverted to Thailand at 3:45 local time on Tuesday after requesting an emergency landing.

According to updates the airline posted on its  Facebook page , the rest of the passengers, the majority of whom were from Australia, the United Kingdom and Singapore, and the crew were being evaluated and treated as needed by medical personnel at the airport.

Turbulence  is getting worse, and that trend is likely to continue because of climate change. Here's what climate and aviation experts said about the worsening turbulence trends.

What causes turbulence?

There are different kinds of turbulence, and they're caused by different things:

• Mountain wave turbulence,  as the name suggests, happens when the wind hits a mountain and is forced upward off its blustery path. That's why it's common to hit some bumps when you're flying over the Rockies on a transcontinental flight.
• Convective turbulence  is generally associated with storms and is caused by warm air rising.
• Clear air turbulence  can be caused by a number of factors and is generally harder to predict than the other two types, but it is also the most likely kind to affect aircraft. And because it's harder to predict, it can also be harder to avoid.

Ding! Even if the seatbelt sign is off, you should stay buckled while flying. Here's why.

Is climate change making turbulence worse?

Yes, at least with clear air turbulence.

According to Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, there's no clear data on how climate change is affecting mountain waves or convective turbulence, but clear air turbulence is definitely becoming more frequent and intense.

"It's going up because of climate change," Williams told USA TODAY last year. "The atmosphere is getting more turbulent; there will be more severe turbulence in the atmosphere."

Thomas Guinn, chair of applied aviation sciences at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, agreed.

"Turbulence is going to tend to become more frequent and more intense with climate change," he said. 

See how it happens: Why is turbulence increasing? Rougher skies may be from climate change, scientists say

Both Williams and Guinn pointed out that severe turbulence is actually increasing more acutely than lighter chop.

Recent studies Williams has worked on show severe turbulence is increasing by 149% increase versus 59% for light turbulence. However, severe turbulence will likely remain very rare.

How many deaths has turbulence caused?

In the U.S., the Federal Aviation Administration reported 163 passengers and crew have been seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2022.

More information on turbulence: Climate change is making turbulence worse, but here's why you shouldn't worry (too much)

Can planes withstand turbulence?

Yes, planes are designed to withstand even extreme turbulence, so it may be uncomfortable for passengers, but it almost never puts the plane itself in physical danger, according to Guinn. The bigger problems, he said, are the other complications turbulence can cause.

"If you can climb above it or go below it, that fixes things, but that costs a lot of fuel," Guinn said. "Prolonged exposure to turbulence for a pilot is fatiguing. Pilots are going to have to deal with that as well."

It's tough on other parts of the aviation sector as well.

"If there’s three times as much turbulence in the atmosphere, that’s three times the obstacles you have to avoid as a pilot," Williams said. "Every time a pilot tries to go around turbulence, it adds to the workload of air traffic controllers and pilots.

Zach Wichter is a travel reporter for USA TODAY based in New York. You can reach him at [email protected].

The Key Points at the top of this article were created with the assistance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and reviewed by a journalist before publication. No other parts of the article were generated using AI. Learn more .

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TSA screens record number of travelers as Memorial Day weekend kicks off

Jaclyn Diaz

Motorists travel westbound along Interstate 40 on Thursday in Nashville, Tenn. A record number of Americans are expected to hit the pavement over the 2024 Memorial Day holiday. George Walker IV/Getty Images North America hide caption

America is back, baby.

Airports and roadways are expected to be jam-packed during the Memorial Day weekend, making up for travel lost during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new analysis from AAA. But severe and potentially destructive storms forecast for the Plains, Midwest and mid-South through Memorial Day weekend may dampen the fun.

On Friday, Transportation Security Administration officers screened 2,951,163 passengers at checkpoints nationwide — breaking the agency's record for most travelers screened in a single day. The previous record was set last year a few days after Thanksgiving on Nov. 26.

But it doesn't stop there. The TSA expects that from Thursday to Sunday, more than 18 million passengers and crew will be screened — up 6.4% compared to the same time last year.

AAA projects 43.8 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home from Thursday, May 23 through Monday, May 27 — "the second highest Memorial Day weekend that we've ever tracked" and up 4% from last year, Aixa Diaz, a spokeswoman for AAA, told NPR.

About 38.4 million people are projected to drive over Memorial Day weekend — "the highest number for that holiday since AAA began tracking in 2000," the organization said.

Another 3.5 million people will take to the skies.

AAA says this indicates America is back to pre-pandemic travel numbers. "Not only that, but we're surpassing them," Diaz said.

"A lot of people are wanting to get away to sort of get that first taste of summer. But also this continues this pattern of post pandemic travel," Diaz said. "It started off as revenge travel right after the pandemic around like 2021, 2022. But what we've really seen the past couple of years is that more people now are prioritizing travel."

Motorists travel westbound along Interstate 40 on Thursday in Nashville, Tenn. A record number of Americans are expected to hit the pavement over the 2024 Memorial Day holiday. George Walker IV/AP hide caption

Tips to prepare for bad weather and traffic

Bad weather, including thunderstorms, wildfires and even snow, is forecast to hit areas including Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Montana as "multiple jet stream disturbances tap into warm and humid air," Weather.com said citing outlooks from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Threats this weekend also include tornadoes, damaging wind and hail. This is all set to come after a tornado swept through Iowa earlier this week killing four people and injuring at least 35.

Despite this, most travelers have already left or are planning to leave on Friday.

"So right now we're in the thick of it," Diaz said. The best chance to avoid jam packed roads is to "avoid hitting the road during those rush hour times when many people who are still going to work on Thursday and Friday, are mixing with travelers on the roads," she said.

Diaz also recommends travelers "try to leave as little to chance as possible."

That means heading to the airport at least two hours early, preparing for long TSA lines, gassing up vehicles before hitting the interstate and packing cars with an emergency kit (filled with snacks, extra water and blankets).

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be 'extraordinary,' forecasters warn

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What is in-flight turbulence, and when does it become dangerous for passengers and crews?

The death of a British man and injuries impacting dozens of others on a Singapore Airlines flight that hit severe turbulence Tuesday is the latest incident to spotlight the potential dangers of flying through unstable air.

The Boeing 777-300ER aircraft of Singapore Airlines, flight SQ321 from Heathrow is seen on tarmac after requesting an emergency landing at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi International airport, Thailand, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. One person has died aboard a London-Singapore flight that encountered severe turbulence, Singapore Airlines said Tuesday, in which the plane apparently plummeted for a number of minutes before it was diverted to Bangkok, where emergency crews rushed to help injured passengers amid stormy weather. (Pongsakorn Rodphai via AP)

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Ambulances are seen at the airport where a London-Singapore flight that encountered severe turbulence was diverted to, in Bangkok, Thailand, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. The plane apparently plummeted for a number of minutes before it was diverted to Bangkok, where emergency crews rushed to help injured passengers amid stormy weather, Singapore Airlines said Tuesday. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Members of a rescue team discuss after a London-Singapore flight was diverted to Bangkok due to severe turbulence, in Bangkok, Thailand, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. The plane apparently plummeted for a number of minutes before it was diverted to Bangkok, where emergency crews rushed to help injured passengers amid stormy weather, Singapore Airlines said Tuesday. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

NEW YORK (AP) — The death of a British man and injuries impacting dozens of other people aboard a Singapore Airlines flight that hit severe turbulence Tuesday highlighted the potential dangers of flying through unstable air.

The exact cause of the 73-year-old man’s death is under investigation. Authorities said he may have suffered a heart attack, though that hasn’t been confirmed. Based on witness accounts, the number of injuries and the airliner’s sharp descent, experts point to the significant safety hazards that in-flight turbulence poses to airline passengers and crews.

While turbulence-related fatalities are quite rare, injuries have piled up over the years. Some meteorologists and aviation analysts note that reports of turbulence encounters also have been increasing and point to the potential impacts that climate change may have on flying conditions.

Most incidents of planes hitting bumpy air are minor, however, and airlines have made steady improvements to reduce accident rates from turbulence over time. Experts advise air travelers to stay vigilant, stressing the importance of wearing a seat belt whenever possible as a first line of protection.

WHAT IS TURBULENCE?

Turbulence is essentially unstable air that moves in a non-predictable fashion . Most people associate it with heavy storms. But the most dangerous type is clear-air turbulence, which often occurs with no visible warning in the sky ahead.

Clear-air turbulence happens most often in or near the high-altitude rivers of air called jet streams. The culprit is wind shear, which is when two huge air masses close to each other move at different speeds. If the difference in speed is big enough, the atmosphere can’t handle the strain, and it breaks into turbulent patterns like eddies in water.

“When you get strong wind shear near the jet stream, it can cause the air to (overturn). And that creates these chaotic motions in the air,” Thomas Guinn, chair of applied aviation sciences department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Florida, explained.

HOW COMMON ARE TURBULENCE-RELATED INJURIES?

Tracking the total number of turbulence-related injuries around the world is difficult. But some individual countries publish national data.

More than one-third of all airline incidents in the United States from 2009 through 2018 were related to turbulence, and most of them resulted in one or more serious injuries but no damage to the plane, the National Transportation Safety Board reported .

Between 2009 and 2022, 163 people were injured seriously enough during turbulence events to require hospital treatment for at least two days, according to NTSB figures. Most of them were flight attendants, who are particularly at risk since they are more likely to be out of their seats during a flight.

Investigations are underway into what happened during Tuesday’s Singapore Airlines flight. The carrier said the Boeing 777-300ER descended 6,000 feet (around 1,800 meters) in about three minutes after hitting severe turbulence over the Indian Ocean.

Preliminary casualty figures from the airport and a hospital in Bangkok, where the plane headed from London to Singapore landed in stormy weather, indicated that in addition to the one death, six or seven passengers were severely injured. Dozens of other travelers and crew members were reported to have suffered moderate or less serious injuries.

“It’s not uncommon to have turbulence encounters that cause minor injuries up to, say, a broken bone,” said Larry Cornman, a project scientist at the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research who has long studied turbulence. “But fatalities are very, very rare — especially for large transport aircraft.”

According to Stuart Fox, director of flight and technical operations at the International Air Transport Association, the last clear air turbulence-related death reported from a major carrier took place in 1997. A few fatalities on smaller planes have been reported since, including a death on a private jet last year, Fox said.

Now-standardized safety procedures have significantly helped prevent more cases of serious injuries over the years. Fox noted. They include reviewing weather forecasts, having pilots report when they encounter turbulence and suspending cabin service when planes hit rough air.

CAN PILOTS AVOID TURBULENCE?

Pilots use a variety of methods to avoid turbulence, including using a weather radar display. Sometimes they can simply see and fly around thunderstorms.

But clear-air turbulence “is altogether another animal,” according to Doug Moss, a former airline pilot and safety consultant. It can be devastating, he said, “because the time before the incident can be very calm, and people are caught off-guard.”

Air traffic controllers will warn pilots after another plane runs into clear-air turbulence, Moss said. Many pilots also look at the upper-level jet streams along their route for signs of wind shear, then plan to fly above, below or around those areas, he said.

Modern planes are strong enough to handle just about any turbulence. Cabin areas such as overhead bins may receive cosmetic damage, “but these don’t impact the structural integrity of the planes,” Moss said.

IS CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSING TURBULENCE TO INCREASE?

Some scientists note that reports of turbulence encounters are on the rise. There are a number of possible explanations for that, but several researchers have pointed to potential climate impacts.

Guinn, of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, explains that some predict climate change could alter the jet stream and up the wind shear, which would consequently drive up turbulence in the air.

In a statement Tuesday, Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in England, said there was “strong evidence that turbulence is increasing because of climate change.”

Williams said his research team recently discovered that severe clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic has increased by 55% since 1979, for example. The team’s latest projections signal that severe turbulence in the jet streams could double or triple in the coming decades if global conditions continue as expected, he said.

Still, others say other factors could also be at play. Cornman notes that there could be a rise in overall air traffic — which may increase turbulence encounters as the number of flight tracks, including those in areas of more turbulence, goes up.

HOW CAN TRAVELERS STAY SAFE?

In short, buckle up. Turbulence can be tricky to predict, but experts stress that the first line of defense in the air is keeping the seat belt fastened, whenever possible.

“Planes are generally built to withstand turbulence,” Guinn said, noting that passengers not wearing their seat belts is a large source of injuries from in-flight turbulence. While no precaution is foolproof, wearing a seat belt greatly increases an individual’s chances of avoiding serious injuries, he said.

“Wear your seat belt,” Guinn said. he stressed. “That’s just a really quick fix to prevent injury.”

Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul in Bangkok and David Koenig in Dallas contributed reporting.

This story was first published on May 21, 2024. It was updated on May 22, 2024 to make clear that Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University professor Thomas Guinn intended to say that strong wind shear causes air to overturn, not overflow.