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New ballistic, cruise and loitering missiles were shown by the Houthis in the recent military parade in Sanaa, Yemen. Among the new missiles on display was the Quds-3 cruise missile, believed to be a new, longer-range variant of the Iranian Soumar cruise missile.

Quds 3 – a new cruise missile. Like its two predecessors (Quds 1 and 2), Quds-3 is powered by a small turbojet engine, yet it is larger and capable of flying over a longer range. Quds cruise missiles are programmed to fly at a low level and have demonstrated effective radar avoidance capability. They are designed to perform precision attacks on a pre-programmed location based on the target coordinates. The missile achieves an initial velocity using a solid propellant booster which is separated once the missile achieves its cruising velocity.

According to the Iranwatch.org missile report, Quds-1 has a range of 800 km. The second-generation Quds-2, which corresponds with the Iranian Soumar (also known as Hoveyzeh) missiles, has a range of 1,350 km. The range of Quds 3 was not mentioned by the Houthis but is believed to be longer than Quds 2, as the missile diameter is larger, thus capable of carrying a larger fuel tank and warhead. These missiles are based on an Iranian derived from Soviet-era air-launched Kh55 cruise missiles acquired from Ukraine in the late 1990s. The range of Quds-1 is assumed to be 700 km, with Quds-3 achieving three times that range.

Other posts related to this topic:

• Houthi’s New Naval Weapons Extend Their Reach 200 nm into the Gulf of Aden
• Houthi’s Display a New Cruise Missile: Quds-3
• New Ballistic Missiles Displayed at the Houthi’s Military Parade

Yemeni Houthis Display Iranian Drones and Loitering Missiles

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Meet the Quds 1

On September 14, several explosions rocked the Khurais oilfield as well as the Abqaiq refinery, one of Saudi Arabia’s most vital petrochemical installations. Several hours later, the Houthis claimed that they had targeted both facilities with ten drones as part of their “Balance of Deterrence” campaign.

What made this attack different from other recorded Houthi drone attacks was not only the unprecedented amount of material damage caused but also lingering doubt about the nature and the attribution of the attack. First, a video allegedly showing flying objects entering Kuwaiti airspace led to speculation that like a previous “Houthi” drone attack this strike might actually have originated in Iraq or even Iran. While the video remains unverified, the fact that the Kuwaiti government launched a probe into the issue lends some credence to the idea that something might have happened over Kuwait that day. Speculation about the origins of the attack was further fueled by a tweet by Mike Pompeo in which he claimed that there was no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.

Then the question arose whether drones had been used at all, or whether the attack might in fact have been a missile strike. Previous Houthi drone strikes against oil facilities tended to result in quite limited damage which could be an indication that a different weapons system was used this time. Indeed, Aramco came to the conclusion that its facilities were attacked by missiles. Even more curious, several pictures began to emerge on social media purportedly showing the wreckage of a missile in the Saudi desert. While the images appear real, neither the date the photos were taken nor their location can be verified. Social media users quickly claimed the images showed a crashed Iranian-made Soumar cruise missile. The Soumar and its updated version, the Hoveyzeh, are Iran’s attempts at reverse-engineering the Soviet-designed KH-55 cruise missile, several of which the country illegally imported from Ukraine in the early 2000s . Others claimed it was the Quds 1, a recently unveiled Houthi cruise missile often claimed to be a rebranded Soumar.

While at this point there are still more questions about the attack than answers, it might be a good idea to take a closer look at the Quds 1. Do the pictures in the desert actually show a Quds 1? And is the Quds 1 really just a smuggled Soumar?

The story of the Quds 1 begins in mid-June 2019, when a cruise missile fired by the Houthis hit the terminal of Abha Airport in Southern Saudi Arabia, wounding a total of 26 passengers. Not long afterwards, Saudi Arabia held a press conference showing images of the missile’s wreckage and claiming that the missile in question was an Iranian Ya Ali cruise missile. The Ya Ali is a much smaller missile than the Soumar and while the newest version of the Soumar has a range of up to 1350km , the Ya Ali’s range is limited to about 700km . With Abha airport being located only 110km from the Yemeni border, using a smaller, shorter-range system seemed to make sense. However, there was an inconsistency. The rounded wings and stabilizers shown in the Saudi presentation did not match the Ya Ali. Instead they were more reminiscent of the Soumar.

Only a few weeks later, in early July, the Houthis opened a large static display of their ballistic missile and drone arsenal. One of the surprises unveiled at the show was a cruise missile named Quds 1 (Jerusalem 1) which the Houthis claimed to have indigenously developed.

Noting the overall similarity in design with the Soumar, many observers claimed Iran had simply smuggled it to Yemen where the Houthis gave it a new paint job and a new name, as they had done before with the Qiam. Well, it turns out cruise missiles are a lot like wines or pictures of Joe Biden. At first they all appear to be the same but once you spend enough time on them, you realize there are quite a few differences. Differences between the Quds 1 and the Soumar include the entire booster design, the wing position, the Quds 1’s fixed wings, the shape of the nose cone, the shape of the aft fuselage, the position of the stabilizers and the shape of the engine cover and exhaust.

The differences in the shape of the aft fuselage and the position of the stabilizers make it clear that the wreckage in the desert is much more likely to be a Quds 1 than a Soumar.

There is yet another apparent difference between the Quds 1 and the Soumar/Hoveyzeh: size. A quick measurement using MK1 Eyeball reveals that the Quds 1 seems to be smaller in diameter than the Soumar.

But while MK1 Eyeball works fine, measuring is always a little more objective. So let’s go back to the Saudi presentation for a second. When describing the remnants of the alleged Ya Ali that hit Abha airport, the Saudis mentioned that among the wreckage they found a jet engine named TJ-100.

A quick search reveals that there indeed is a small turbojet engine called TJ100. The engine is produced by the Czech company PBS Aerospace which describes it as being especially suitable for applications in UAVs, one of its uses being the Spanish/Brazilian Diana target drone . Oh yeah, and you can also totally use it to convert your glider into a jet , which is pretty cool.

When comparing the engine seen on the Quds 1 and the TJ100 it seems pretty clear that whatever powers the Quds 1 is either a TJ100 or pretty much an exact copy of it. An engine displayed at an Iranian drone exhibition again shows stunning similarities with the TJ100, implying that Iran is producing a copy of the Czech engine for use in some of its drones.

Knowing the dimensions of the TJ100, one can precisely measure the diameter of the Quds 1. With 34cm it is significantly smaller than the Soumar, which retains the original KH-55’s diameter of 51,4cm.

However, the Qud 1’s use of a TJ100 is interesting for more reasons than just measurements. First, the fact that the Quds 1 uses the same engine type that was found in Abha makes it highly likely that the missile that hit Abha’s terminal was a Quds-1 simply mislabeled by Saudi Arabia. The Quds 1’s design also corresponds to the rounded wing and stabilizers found at the scene.

Second, knowing more details about the engine gives us some insights into the performance of the missile. Both the KH-55 and the Soumar use fuel efficient turbofan engines. The TJ100 however not only has much lower thrust than the original KH-55 engine but also is just your regular old turbojet. This leads to some questions about range. Both the missile’s smaller size and its more fuel-hungry engine make it seem unlikely it’s range would be anywhere close to the the Soumar’s/Hoveyzeh’s range of 1350km.

If the pictures showing the Quds 1 wreckage in Saudi Arabia are indeed connected to the recent Abqaiq attack, it would seem more likely that the attack originated from a place closer to Eastern Saudi Arabia than Northern Yemen – potentially Iraq, Iran or perhaps even from ships. But then again that is a big if at the current moment.

All of this leaves the question of just who developed and built the Quds 1. The idea that impoverished war-torn Yemen would be able to develop a cruise missile without any outside assistance seems far-fetched. Iran’s previous supply of missiles to the Houthis and the fact that the country uses TJ100 engines in its drone program do imply that the Iran could be behind the Quds 1.

However, so far we haven’t seen any trace of the Quds 1 in Iran proper.

Update: New research has unearthed some interesting clues about the Quds’ origins. For further details check out my most recent ACW blogpost ‘A trace of the Quds in Tehran?’

This riddle is not unique to the Quds 1. Beginning in 2018, several missile systems began to emerge in Yemen that while broadly similar to Iranian-designed systems seem to have no exact Iranian equivalent. These missiles include the Badr-1P and the Badr-F precision-guided solid-fuel short range missiles

Is Iran secretly designing, testing and producing missile systems for exclusive use by its proxies? We might have to wait for Tehran Timmy to show up in Sanaa or the Donald to tweet another high-res satellite pic to find the answer.

From the image posted by POTUS, impacts come from the West!

Not sure if not, but just so it’s clear: cruise missiles can turn.

And ? I think you know a cruise missile can change direction !

Impact direction is not relevant. These missiles are programmed to fly any route.

I must say I am very sceptical what I see in the satellite photos and taking in the theories provided. First, the impact points in the close up satellite photos depict four very precise and neat hits at roughly same height and angle. All of which seem to have penetrated the structure. Now, if these were cruise missiles, the impact points would surely be much more dispersed from one another, not in a nice precise points as we see. The accuracy suggests the munitions were aided by likely laser designation, hence the accuracy. Furthermore, if we look at the impact angles, to me that suggests an angle corresponding with air drop or glide in from air (hence the roughly 45-60 decree angle). What is known about the warhead types used in both the cruise missile and the suicide drones, they would detonate on impact and leave blackened impact ‘crater’/hole behind. Also, if this was a cruise missile attack wouldn’t a big part of the structure have collapsed or damaged otherwise, again unlike what we see in the satellite photo. In addition, compare the impact points position to google earth pictures setting the North needle at the same angle. You would notice that the impact points are on ‘wrong side’ if they came from Iraq or Kuwait. If they came from one of the two countries, they would have had to fly around the area and turn back to hit the targets as they did. This would require complex planning for waypoints and terrain contour intelligence (highly sceptic whether Iran possesses any capability for such feat). To me those impact points, angle, accuracy, etc. suggest a well-trained laser-guidance aided precision-guided munitions dropped from air. The impact marks correspond closely to the hundreds of satellite imagery I have studied from wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria. What it means then I do not want to conclude at this haste though. If I could get your honest opinion on my observations, that would be great. Thank you.

Earth curvature would seem to preclude ground based guidance for low flying drones. With a range in excess of 500 miles I think we can safely rule out drones flying from Yemen, as well as Iraq and Iran. Cruise missiles are technologically advanced, and beyond the capability of scruffy guerrillas like the Houthis. My money says this attack came off ships in the Persian Gulf.

Thanks – very informative!

Any thoughts on CEP? This image shows eerily accurate impacts for inertial/GPS guidance. https://i.imgur.com/QPVFfYA.png

Wouldn’t it be easier to launch the missiles from ships offshore in order to further confuse the origin of the attacks?

And Mishiko, cruise missiles can be programmed for a flight path to generate impacts from any direction; similarly, remotely piloted drones could be directed into Khurais and Abqaiq from any axis.

PS: The term cruise “missile” is a misnomer, because cruise missiles and drones are both aircraft with no pilot on board. The original cruise missiles were pre-programmed to fly a specific flight path to a given target, while drones more commonly are remotely piloted and can be used as suicide bombers or as stand-off missile launchers like the Reaper.

You know that thing where Americans always underestimate the North Koreans, and then get burned for that, sometimes very badly?

Now we are doing the same thing with Yemen.

no details on the accuracy? Pretty sure the soumar missile has like a 50m radius for accuracy. All the Saudi targets were taken out with precision strikes, even better than a guided US tomahawk at 7m radius for accuracy. The facilities were clearly drone strikes and drone strikes alone or we’d see remains of missiles that missed their target.

Most likely is that engineers from Iran were hired or volunteered to design the Qud1. They would have used experience with the Soumar but built it to match the commercially available JT100 engine.

Could you discuss the firing strategy for “QED1 which seems to include a first stage booster, a second stage and a turbojet. The turbojet apparently makes it all way to the target, so is it the final source of drive? In which case, why not scuttle both the first and second stages?

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The Houthis’ Red Sea missile and drone attack: Drivers and implications

Ibrahim Jalal

On Oct. 19, the Pentagon press secretary, Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, confirmed that the Iran-backed Houthi militia targeted the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, in the Red Sea. The USS Carney reportedly intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones without sustaining any damage or casualties. Although the Houthis have yet to claim responsibility for the attack, the drones and missiles were likely fired from north-western, Houthi-held positions in Hodeida and Hajjah governorates on Yemen’s Red Sea coast and were headed “north” without an established target at the time of reporting. Since September, the Houthis have reportedly intensified their naval military training in al-Luhayya district in northern Hodeida and brought in new medium and heavy weapons capabilities, suggesting that they intend to launch an attack on strategic maritime and trade routes, a senior military official told the author.

While the primary target of the missiles and drones has yet to be established due to a lack of technical analysis of the debris, Ryder said they were headed “potentially towards … Israel.” The attack appears to be largely symbolic, aimed at sending a political message as the Houthis reaffirm their role as part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” When they have targeted military and commercial ships with the intent of causing damage in the past, the Houthis have deployed remote-controlled explosive boats and naval mines, alongside missiles and drones. That was not the case in this attack, however. The latest Houthi attack coincided with pro-Iranian militant groups targeting U.S. bases and bases hosting American troops elsewhere in the region, such as the al-Tanf garrison in Syria and al-Asad airbase in Iraq. These attacks came just a few days after Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian indicated that the Axis of Resistance could take “pre-emptive action” and warned of a “multiple front” war if Israel invades Gaza and the U.S. becomes engaged in the conflict.

Nevertheless, the latest Houthi attack in the southern Red Sea after nine years of indecisive warfare reflects the international and regional management of the Yemen file. In particular, it underscores the strategic miscalculation of the December 2018 Stockholm Agreement, which hampered, under British and American pressure, the recapture of Hodeida, as well as the sudden and unjustified withdrawal of the Joint Forces, led by Brig. Gen. Tareq Saleh, from over 100 km of territory along Hodeida’s southern coast against the backdrop of talks between the United Arab Emirates and Iran in November 2021. As noted at the time by the author , “The Houthis have now stretched their presence along the southern Red Sea and can expand the scope of their illicit activities and threats to maritime security and trade.”

Houthi motives

There are several external and internal drivers behind the Houthi attacks. Externally, first, the hardline wing of the Houthis, which supported the surprise targeting of Bahraini forces stationed by the Saudi-Yemeni border on Sept. 25, seeks to reinforce the group’s regional affiliation under the Axis of Resistance. Iran’s influence on this wing is very strong and the result of long-term political, military, and financial investment.

Second, the Houthis, like other pro-Iranian groups, want to cement their regional status as a resistance movement and secure further support from Arab and Muslim populations.

Third, the Houthis also seek to send a message to the United States that in the future they could target U.S. or Israeli interests in the region, including those passing through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandab Strait.

Internally, there are four primary motives. First, the Houthis have been facing growing criticism of their claims that they support Palestine or are engaged in a permanent war with Israel as their slogan — “God is the greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam" — suggests. On Oct. 10, Houthi leader Abdul-Malek al-Houthi said if the U.S. were to militarily intervene directly in Gaza, his group would fire drones and missiles, among other military actions coordinated with the Axis of Resistance. Regardless of whether the Houthis can actually engage in a protracted regional war vis-à-vis Israel and the U.S. along with other members of the Axis of Resistance, the Houthi leader declared their intent to launch attacks, including symbolic ones.

Second, the Houthis are also seeking to leverage the ongoing escalation to boost their weak public support in Yemen and beyond against the backdrop of cautious and inadequate responses by the governments of many Arab and Muslim countries. The Houthis’ recent mass arrest of at least 1,500 civilians celebrating the 61st anniversary of the Sept. 26, 1962 revolution that established the Yemen Arab Republic in Sanaa and Ibb governorates highlights the scale of the crisis of confidence and lack of support they face, exacerbated by their failure to deliver services and pay salaries for more than five years. The Houthis fear mass gatherings due to the potential for infiltration and mobilization against the group’s practices and ideology. As a result, over the past two weeks they have dictated the locations where solidarity protests with Palestine will be held for internal security reasons.

Third, while the attack boosts the morale of Houthi forces, supporters, and sympathizers in the short term, the overall geopolitical development also helps the Houthis to distract the public and attempt to contain rising discontent through the use of populist rhetoric.

Fourth, the Houthis also seek to increase their leverage in the ongoing Saudi-Houthi talks, which have not ceased despite recent changes in regional dynamics. To the contrary, these talks have gained added momentum in recent months even as the international community is once again distracted by geopolitical developments. On Oct. 18, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, who handles the Yemen file, met with the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council to discuss developments in the talks and the need for a comprehensive intra-Yemeni political solution. Yazeed al-Jeddawy, a research coordinator at Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, told MEI that, “Saudi Arabia fears the collapse of talks and a return to square one, including to American pressure.” Americans diplomats engaged in talks directly or indirectly, who have slowed down the rush to conclude an agreement at any cost, will certainly pass messages to the Houthis through Saudi Arabia, Oman, and other channels. Given Saudi Arabia’s resolve to support de-escalation and its reaffirmed intent to focus on internal development, most notably Vision 2030, Riyadh would prefer not to re-engage in open, direct, and protracted military confrontation with the Houthis.

Houthi targeting of Israel is a question of will, not ability

Houthi conventional and non-conventional capabilities, including those acquired from Iran and its network as well as those seized from the Yemeni state during the 2014 coup and enhanced with support from the Axis of Resistance, have hit targets 900 km-1,300 km away, such as Riyadh , Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, and Abu Dhabi . With missiles reportedly capable of striking targets up to 2,500 km away, the Houthi targeting of Israel is a question of will rather than ability and could be carried out from bunkers within Sanaa, if the group chooses to do so. In 2022, pro-Houthi Brig. Gen. Abdallah al-Jifri alluded to this capability, warning that, “The very same missiles and drones that have reached the UAE today will reach Tel Aviv and the Eilat Port. There are also other missiles and drones with a longer range — a range of 2,500 km — and can go beyond the Zionist entity.” In a military parade on the ninth anniversary of the coup on Sept. 21, 2023, the Houthis unveiled new short-range and long-range capabilities, including the following:

Typhoon or Toufan long-range ballistic missiles with a range of 1,350-1,900 km, which are reminiscent of Iran’s Ghadr ballistic missiles  

Quds-4 and Quds Z-0 land attack cruise missiles that can engage land and naval targets  

Asef and Falaq sea denial systems, with a range of 200 km and 300 km, respectively, akin to Iran’s Khalij-e Fars anti-ship missiles

Previously known weapons with medium- and long-range strike capabilities include :

Samad 2/3/4 drones, reminiscent of Iran’s Shahed drones, with a reported range of 1,200 km-1,500 km, 1,300 km-1,700 km, and 2,000 km, respectively  

Wa’id drones, similar to Iran’s Shahed 136, with a reported range of 2,500 km  

Quds-2 cruise missiles, similar to Iran’s Soumar, with a reported range of up to 1,350 km  

Burkan-2H/3 missiles, reminiscent of Iran’s Qiam, with a reported range of 1,000 km and 1,200 km, respectively

Immediate implications

The latest Houthi drone and missile attack in the Red Sea has a number of implications for Yemen, the region, and regional and international security. First, the hardliner Houthi wing, regardless of whether and how future peace talks progress, is reasserting the strategic primacy of Houthi ties to the Axis of Resistance project. In particular, the attack itself and the technological advancement of Houthi capabilities signal the militia’s will to be militarily engaged in regionalized or internationalized wars or tensions under certain circumstances.

Second, the attack highlights the conspicuous risks and threats posed by the ungoverned proliferation of long-range conventional and non-conventional capabilities in the hands of hybrid and non-state actors. This also speaks to consistent mismanagement or inconsistent appeasement policies on the part of the U.S. and Europe. Attacks on maritime and trade routes, or on distant targets passing through neighboring countries, once again call into question the dividends of pushing for a quick but fragile peace in Yemen that would benefit unaccountable hybrid actors like the Houthis. Strategic Western engagement in Yemen that is conscious of long-term human development, reconstruction, and regional security needs remains lacking.

Third, the missile and drone strike, coupled with other coordinated attacks in Syria and Iraq, highlights how Iran has strategically outsourced the risk of direct confrontation via the Axis of Resistance and diffused responsibility, a move that increases its leverage in direct and back-channel negotiations as well as its regional influence.

Fourth, the location of the attacks will not only result in further militarization of Yemeni waters and islands in the Red and Arabian seas, but also the long-term commitment to enhance deterrence, freedom of navigation, and interception operations. Between 2016 and 2023, the U.S., Saudi, Australian, British, and French navies interdicted  more than 17 Iran-supplied arms shipments, destined for the Houthis, inclusive of surface-to-air missiles, cruise missile components, Dehlavieh anti-tank guided missiles, assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, and parts for uncrewed drones and waterborne improvised explosive devices.

Fifth, it is unclear how the attack will affect Saudi-Houthi dynamics, given Riyadh’s commitment to turn the page on the war, but it is near certain that the road to a sustainable, just peace in Yemen still remains out of sight.

Sixth, the United States and its partners are more likely than before to show an expanded commitment to deepen military and security support for the Government of Yemen and/or forces stationed along the Red Sea under the leadership of Presidential Leadership Council member Brig. Gen. Tareq Saleh.

Seventh, Yemen’s position toward the Palestinian cause is unchanged, but it remains to be seen whether the Houthis through a single political messaging attack will be able to achieve long-term gains, both internally and externally. Overall, this incident once again raises the question of which partner the world wants to have in Yemen.

Ibrahim Jalal is a Yemeni security, conflict, and defense researcher; a Non-Resident Scholar at MEI; and a co-founding member of the Security Distillery Think Tank.

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. It does not engage in advocacy and its scholars’ opinions are their own. MEI welcomes financial donations, but retains sole editorial control over its work and its publications reflect only the authors’ views. For a listing of MEI donors, please click here .

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Houthi cruise missile breaches Israeli air defences for first time

Iran-backed group fired volleys of long-range missiles at israel from about 1,600km away in yemen.

Sayyad, an anti-ship version of the Quds cruise missile, equipped with a radar-homing seeker, on parade in Sanaa, Yemen. AFP

Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza

Israel on Tuesday night confirmed a Houthi cruise missile had landed near the city of Eilat in the country’s south, the first time the group has successfully breached Israeli air defences .

“A cruise missile coming from the direction of the Red Sea fell in an open area, the target was being monitored by Air Force forces,” said a statement from the Israeli military. “There were no casualties and no damage was caused. The incident is being investigated.”

Although there were no deaths or injuries, it represents a demonstration of long-range attack capability for the Iran-backed militia.

The missile was launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen, about 1,600km from the target.

The longest-range US cruise missile, the AGM-158B-2, has a range of about 1,900km.

Houthi cruise missiles used before the current Gaza war were thought to have a range of about 1,300km, based on their use on targets in Saudi Arabia during Yemen's civil war.

The group's longest-range missile, the Quds-3, has a claimed range of 2,000km and is the only type capable of flying to Eilat.

The Houthis have another long-range missile, the Toufan, but unlike a low-flying cruise weapon that sneaks under radar beams, it flies at high altitude and is more vulnerable to air defences.

Houthi arsenal

The Houthis have also fired volleys of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at Israel since the Gaza war began on October 7, but none of the projectiles hit their targets.

On October 23, a Houthi drone exploded in the Egyptian town of Taba, injuring six, while in November a drone struck Eilat from the direction of Syria, from where it was fired by Iran-backed militias.

Previous ballistic and cruise missile attacks by the Houthis against Israel have been intercepted by US and Israeli warships, jet aircraft and land-based air defences.

Cruise missiles such as the one that struck Eilat on Tuesday can be tracked and shot down by jets – a tactic the Israelis have used – but that depends on keeping aircraft present in the air for long periods, a costly operation.

Cruise missiles fly low to the ground – rarely higher than 150 metres – making them hard for radar beams to detect at long range, due to hills and the Earth's curvature. They can also navigate and change direction at low level, complicating the task of air defence forces.

The Houthis fired Quds-3 cruise missiles towards Israel last year but they were shot down by the USS Carney warship over the Red Sea.

Ballistic missiles, by contrast, fly at high altitude, generally on a predictable “ballistic arc”, giving air defences such as the US Patriot or the Israeli Arrow ample time to spot and intercept them.

Increased accuracy?

The relatively successful deployment of the cruise missile, which succeeded in getting past Red Sea naval air defences despite not hitting a target, could be a milestone in Iranian power projection.

“Iran is likely taking the opportunity to test weapons systems in an actual theatre of war. They do this by providing their advanced weapons systems to their proxy forces,” Mick Mulroy, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for the Middle East, told The National.

The Houthis say their intervention in the Gaza conflict, by blockading the Red Sea, is intended to pressure Israel into a ceasefire. Mr Mulroy, a former CIA officer, said Iran “directly contributed to the conflict in Gaza” by supplying Hamas with most of its military capacity.

In 2019, Houthis used Iranian-designed cruise missiles – according to a UN investigation – to hit oil infrastructure in Khurais, Saudi Arabia, about 800km from Houthi-controlled territory.

The Quds-1 missile was used, which experts say is a slightly modified version of the Soumar cruise missile, an Iranian weapon, part of a pipeline of Iranian arms established for the Houthis as far back as 2009, the UN found.

The Quds-3 is an evolution of the Quds-1, extended for more fuel capacity, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

While the weapons prove challenging to shoot down, the US has invested heavily in upgrading Patriot air defence missile systems to hit low-flying cruise missiles, systems that have been supplied to Israel by the US and Germany.

While the Israelis did not confirm what was used to track the missile, it also has the David's Sling missile defence system, which like the Patriot is capable of choosing not to intercept missiles that are heading for open ground – as may have been the case in Eilat.

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WEAPONS TRANSFERRED TO THE HOUTHI MILITIA AND EMPLOYED IN THE CONFLICT IN YEMEN (2015-ongoing)

Quds-1 Cruise Missile

The Quds-1 is a guided missile that remains in the atmosphere and flies the major portion of its flight path at approximately constant speed. According to experts, the Quds-1 could be a copy of the Iranian Soumar missile or the Russian KH-55. The Soumar is Iran’s attempt at reverse-engineering the Soviet-designed KH-55 cruise missile, several of which the country illegally imported between 1999 and 2000 from Russia. Differences between the Quds-1 and the Soumar include the size (much smaller), the wing position, the shape of the nose cone and the fuselage, the position of the stabilizers and its shorter range, due to having less room aboard for fuel, and due to being a ground-launched rather than an air-launched cruise missile. → armscontrolwonk.com/quds-1

(?) Assembled by the Houthis

Assuming the limited industrial capacity and technology of the Houthis, it is highly probable that the Quds-1 and all the other weaponry have an Iranian origin and its components have been specifically modified to not show any link with Iran. The government of Teheran has been repeatedly accused of providing an increasingly potent arsenal of anti-ship and ballistic missiles, deadly sea mines and even explosive boats that have attacked allied ships in the Red Sea or Saudi territory across Yemen’s northern border. The cruise missiles shares the name of the Quds Force (al-Quds, “Jerusalem Force” in English), a special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), specializing in unconventional warfare and military intelligence operations, reporting directly to the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran. Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian general killed due to a drone strike ordered by Donald Trump on January 3rd, 2020, was the Iranian Major General in the IRGC and, from 1998 until his death in 2020, commander of its Quds Force. Analysts estimate that the unite is composed of 10,000–20,000 members. (iranprimer.usip.org, Dec. 2019)

Both the KH-55 and the Soumar use fuel-efficient turbofan engines, while the Quds-1 is powered by a TJ100 Turbo Jet engine suitable for UAVs and missiles: the apparatus seems to be an unlicensed copy of the one manufactured by the PBS Velká Bíteš, a Czech hi-tech manufacturer of power units and other equipment in the field of aerospace, although the company denies any involvement. (pbs.cz, May 2015)

Direction of the attack to one of the tower of Khurais oil Field at min. 0:05 (BBC)

(Investigation Non-Verified)

The Repository is based on data extracted from SIPRI , Military Wiki and news sources.

This Groundbreaking Ballistic Missile Intercept Was Also the First Combat in Space

For the first time, a medium-range ballistic missile was intercepted by Israel’s Arrow system as it plummeted towards its target in low earth orbit.

It finally happened: for the first time, this Halloween, warfare on Earth made its way into space.

The medium-range ballistic missile, fired from Yemen, was intercepted more than a 100 miles above the Earth by an Israeli Arrow-3 anti-ballistic missile. The Houthi missile warhead was technically in space when it was destroyed, making it the first hostile action to take place off-planet .

The Missile Attack

In October, the Houthi rebels controlling much of Yemen changed gears from their missile and drone attacks against longtime foe Saudi Arabia . Instead, they lobbed a mix of long-range kamikaze drones and surface-skimming cruise missiles northwest over the lengthy Red Sea toward Israel—nearly 1,100 miles away.

The Iran-backed Houthis control much of western Yemen —including the capital Sana’a—and have been eager to show support for Hamas since the Gaza-based group launched an assault on Israeli settlements, and subsequently experienced fierce Israeli counterattacks.

The Houthis have long employed a variety of missile weapons that are quite similar—but not identical—to Iranian systems. Those include the Quds cruise missile ( very similar to Iran’s Soumar cruise missile , which was inspired by the Soviet Kh-55 missile) and, most recently, the Aqueel and Toufan medium-range ballistic missiles (which appear derived from the Iranian Qiam and Ghadr missiles).

But the Houthi missile campaign failed to land a single successful strike in the face of a gauntlet of ground-, air-, and sea-based air defense platforms from the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel. That is, unless you count a drone and missile that crashed in Egypt and Jordan, respectively, rather than Israel.

The Houthis launched another attack on October 31. It included two Quds-4 long-range cruise missiles and, for the first time, a supersonic, high-arcing medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) thought to be patterned on Iran’s Zolfaghar or Ghadr MRBM.

According to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), an Israeli-American Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile destroyed the Houthi missile warhead in mid-flight. This is the first known intercept of an MRBM, which have a range of 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers or 620 to 1,860 miles.

A recording from an F-35 fighter released by the IDF of the anti-missile system, known as Hetz , shows the intercept:

The system was only used in combat once prior—in the downing of an errant Syrian S-200 air defense missile in March of 2017.

The IDF claims that the ballistic missile was downed “at the most appropriate operational time and place.”

Another first, for the F-35: Meanwhile, the two cruise missiles were shot down by Israeli fighters, and at least one was downed by an Israeli F-35I stealth fighter —the first ever cruise missile killed by an F-35 in combat. A recording (seen below) from the F-35’s AN/AAQ-40 electro-optical sensor display shows the missile in flight, apparently overland. Sparks fly as the fighter releases the missile which can then be seen slamming into the cruise missile and destroying it. The F-35 likely used a short-range AIM-9X Sidewinder, which has an infrared-imaging seeker to help it acquire more difficult targets, and a thrust-vectoring rocket engine, which would have allowed the missile to execute very sharp turns away from the launch aircraft’s vector. The F-35 Lightning II stealth jet is ordinarily thought of more as a strike plane than an interceptor—with its lower maximum speed and range, as compared to heavier F-15 non-stealth fighters. However, the F-35’s ability to integrate multiple sensors via a device called the Distributed Aperture System may assist it in engaging tricky targets like cruise missiles, with their small radar-cross section and tendency to approach at low altitude. Evidence that the F-35 can intercept at least subsonic cruise missiles in real combat will comfort Lightning operators in Europe and Asia who have beheld (with alarm) Russia’s extensive cruise missile attacks targeting Ukrainian cities.

The Science Behind the Intercept

Ballistic missiles are so named because they follow a ballistic trajectory, using a rocket motor to send a warhead high aloft that then falls back to Earth, hitting the target. Missile operators can use knowledge of Earth’s rotation, the influence of gravity, and other factors to aim the missile precisely at a target thousands of miles away.

There are three phases to a ballistic missile flight:

• The first is the boost phase, in which the missile is riding rocket motors, warheads in tow, as the missile rises into the air.
• In the second phase, known as the midcourse phase, the rocket motors run out of fuel, burn out, and the missile tumbles back to Earth. The warheads, however, continue on to their destination, coasting along in low earth orbit until it’s time to descend to the target.
• The descent to the target is known as the terminal phase, with the warheads screaming down onto their targets at Mach 15… or faster.

The Houthi missile reportedly traveled 1,000 miles, making it also the longest range ballistic missile attack ever. The farther a ballistic missile needs to travel to its target, the higher the altitude it must achieve. Medium-range ballistic missiles, intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and intercontinental ballistic missiles sprint into the atmosphere, through the increasingly thin air, and eject their warheads to fly the rest of the way to the target.

An MRBM warhead reaches an altitude of at least 200 miles . Low earth orbit begins at an altitude of 124 miles . This means the Houthi missile warhead temporarily became a satellite, rushing through space before plunging down onto its target at hypersonic speed.

Except it never arrived.

Arrow, Israel’s Ballistic Missile Killer

While Israel’s Iron Dome air defense has prominently defended the country against attacks by unguided rockets from militant groups, it was actually preceded by another joint U.S.-Israeli system. This prior system was intended to defeat more advanced threats—supersonic ballistic missiles lobbed by other Middle Eastern states, like those Iraq launched at Israel during the 1991 Gulf War .

The Arrow began development in Israel in the early 1990s. It proceeded with significant involvement and interest from the U.S.—which, until 2002, was forbidden by treaty from operationally deploying its own anti-ballistic missile defenses. The first operational Israeli system, the Arrow-2, entered service in 2000 and was designed to counter short- to medium-range ballistic missiles . It uses two-stage rockets to attain Mach 9 speeds, and releases a “kill-vehicle” with its own built-in radar and infrared seekers, as well as proximity-blast warhead.

The subsequent Arrow-3 interceptor was devised to defeat faster, higher-flying intermediate- and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles—and satellites, if they could be intercepted beyond the atmosphere. Its kill vehicle lacks an explosive warhead, as it relies purely on improved accuracy and kinetic energy to complete its missions.

Both Arrow systems are initially guided to target using the huge, ground-based ELM-2080 Green Pine radar (range 500 miles), which receives instructions via two control systems known as Citron Tree and Hazelnut.

Each Arrow battery can engage 14 simultaneous intercepts and dispose of four to eight launchers, with six Arrow missiles each. Israel is thought to have three Arrow batteries deployed altogether, complementing six medium-range Patriot batteries, six David’s Sling batteries, and ten Iron Dome batteries .

A new Arrow-4 missile is under development to replace the Arrow-2, with enhancements likely aimed at tackling maneuverable, hypersonic weapons and missiles that release multiple independent warheads. Meanwhile, Germany is moving forward aggressively with plans to spend $4.3 billion purchasing Arrow-3 missiles for the missile defense of Europe starting in 2025.

Future Implications

Given extensive testing of Arrows, it shouldn’t be surprising that it was successful in defeating the Houthi attack. However, the now-tangible evidence of Arrow’s utility may force Iran to reconsider the possibility that its modest arsenal of around 50 medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles might not achieve much.

Iran may seek to devise missiles that are significantly harder to intercept—like a recently touted Fattah hypersonic missile —or to build such a large number of medium-range missiles that they outnumber Israel’s inventory of Arrow interceptors. But even if Israel ran out of Arrows, other Israeli air defenses like the Patriot and David’s Sling could still likely help pick off some incoming ballistic attacks (though with lower odds of success).

The Takeaway: Not the Space War You’d Expect

The first battle in space (for humans, anyway) wasn’t between two satellites, or two spaceships, or even two astronauts armed with laser pistols. It was a battle of missiles between a rebel army and Israel.

A psychological barrier, the idea of space as a domain unspoiled by mankind’s vicious infighting, has been breached, and there is no going back. Space, along with the land, air, sea, and cyber domains, is now a battlefield.

Sébastien Roblin has written on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including 19FortyFive, The National Interest, MSNBC, Forbes.com, Inside Unmanned Systems and War is Boring. He holds a Master’s degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. You can follow his articles on Twitter . 

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• International

February 6, 2024 Israel-Hamas war

By Amir Vera , Jack Guy, Antoinette Radford, Aditi Sangal , Elise Hammond , Tori B. Powell and Helen Regan , CNN

Houthis fire missiles at cargo ships in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, US military says

From CNN's Rashard Rose

Iran-backed Houthi militants on Tuesday fired six anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen toward commercial vessels, US Central Command said.

One missile exploded in the Gulf of Aden near the MV Star Nasia, causing minor damage to the Marshall Island-flagged, Greek carrier, CENTCOM said. No injuries were reported.

Other Houthi missile attacks likely targeting MV Morning Tide, a Barbados-flagged, UK-owned cargo ship operating in the southern Red Sea, "impacted the water near the ship without effect," CENTCOM said.

In a statement Tuesday , a spokesperson for the Houthis vowed the militants would increase their attacks on US and UK ships if Israel's war in Gaza does not stop.

"Why did they not warn the residents?": Family of Iraqi student killed in airstrikes blames US

From CNN's Mohammed Tawfeeq

The brother of an Iraqi student killed as a result of US airstrikes on Iraq and Syria on Friday says the family holds the United States responsible for his death.

Abdulrahman Khaled, 20, was killed in the town of Al Qaim, on the Iraq-Syria border, in what the family believes was a secondary explosion after the strikes hit three houses being used by an Iran-backed Shia militia to store weapons.

“When we all started hearing more explosions, Abdulrahman decided to go out and check on our dad, who was alone in his house,” Abdulrahman's eldest brother, Anmar Khaled, told CNN. “If the American administration knew there were weapon warehouses there, why did they not warn the residents in the area? At least drop leaflets before the attack so we have enough time to leave our houses."

According to the Iraqi government, Abdulrahman is one of at least 16 people killed as a result of the strikes, which the US conducted on 85 targets across seven locations in the two countries last week in response to a deadly drone strike by Iran-backed militants on a US military outpost in Jordan  

Read the full story.

Saudi Arabia: No diplomatic relations with Israel "unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized"

From CNN's Hamdi Alkhshali

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry said in a Wednesday  statement  that the kingdom will have no diplomatic relations with Israel without an independent Palestinian state being recognized.

“The Kingdom has communicated its firm position to the US administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital," the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a  statement . Another condition would be that, "Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip stops and all Israeli occupation forces withdraw from the Gaza Strip," the statement said.

Some context: Most Arab and Islamic states don’t recognize Israel and the demand for the establishment of a Palestinian state is a long-held Saudi position .

But just weeks before Hamas launched its October 7 attack on Israel, Riyadh said it was  inching closer  to normalizing diplomatic ties with the Jewish state. Experts say the price that Saudi would demand in exchange for normalization would be higher now than before the Gaza war, as Riyadh may feel compelled to extract more concessions from the United States and Israel.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday that Saudi still has a “strong interest” in normalizing relations with Israel.

Correction: An earlier version of this post mischaracterized the statement from Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry.

Iran provided short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to Houthis, Pentagon agency says

From CNN's Oren Liebermann 

Iran has provided the Houthis with a "diverse arsenal" of weapons, including short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, since 2015, according to a new report that details the group's use of weapons published by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)

Between 2015 and 2023, the US and its partners have interdicted at least 18 Iranian vessels trying to smuggle weapons to the Houthis, the report said. Those shipments have contained ballistic missile components, drones and anti-tank guided missiles, the report said, as well as thousands of assault rifles.

Here's what the report found:

• The Houthis have used the Asif anti-ship ballistic missile against international shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman since late November, according to the DIA report. The Asif has a claimed range of 250 miles and a payload of more than 1,000 pounds. It's nearly identical to Iran's Fateh-110 anti-ship missile.
• The Quds-4 , a Houthi land-attack cruise missile, is a derivative of Iran's Paveh missile, the report said. The two missiles share similar features, including the engine, rear fins and booster. The Houthis have used the Quds missiles to attack Israel, and debris from the Houthi missile in October of last year matches debris from an Iranian missile fired against Saudi Arabia in 2019.
• The report noted the "nearly identical" features between the Houthis' Saqr surface-to-air missile and Iran's 358 missile . The Houthis have used the Saqr missile to attack US drones near Yemen and in the Gulf of Oman.

The Defense Intelligence Agency provides military intelligence to the Department of Defense and the intelligence community, according to its website.

US House of Representatives fails to pass standalone package for $17.6 billion in Israel aid 

From CNN's Manu Raju, Melanie Zanona and Haley Talbot

The US House of Representatives failed to pass a stand-alone funding bill that would have provided $17.6 billion to Israel, after a late shift by members on both sides of the aisle to sink the bill. 

Because of resistance among members of the right-flank House Freedom Caucus, House Speaker Mike Johnson was forced to bring up the bill under a procedure that requires 2/3 majority of the House – including at least 72 Democrats – to approve it.

That support did not come, defeating the measure by a 250-180 vote.

Read more about the Israel aid bill

Pentagon reports 146 US casualties in Iran-backed attacks in Iraq, Syria and Jordan since October

From CNN's Haley Britzky

There have been 146 US casualties — the majority of which have been determined to be non-serious injuries — in the ongoing attacks by Iran-backed groups in Iraq, Syria and Jordan since October 18 of last year, according to a Pentagon spokesperson.

"Of those 146 casualties, three were killed in action, two sustained very serious injuries, nine had serious injuries, and 132 had non-serious injuries," Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Pete Nguyen said Tuesday.

As of Tuesday, there have been at least 168 attacks on US and coalition forces since October 17 — the majority of which have occurred in Iraq and Syria.

Three US soldiers were killed in the only attack in Jordan at the end of January. 

Blinken arrives in Israel for high-stakes meetings on hostage release proposal. Here's what you should know

From CNN staff

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has arrived in Israel ahead of high-stakes meetings with top officials to discuss a proposal for a sustained cessation in the Gaza fighting in exchange for Hamas' release of hostages held since October 7.

Hamas gave a “positive” response to the proposal, according to a short statement Tuesday, but offered few details. 

Blinken said the United States is reviewing the Hamas response , as is Israel's intelligence service, according to a statement from Mossad released by the prime minister's office.

US President Joe Biden described the Hamas response as “a little over the top” in remarks to the press, but did not provide further details. “We’re not sure where it is. There’s a continuing negotiation right now,” he said.

The framework of the proposal calls for a first phase of civilian hostage releases to take place over a six-week pause, with three Palestinian prisoners held by Israel released for each civilian hostage returned from Gaza.

That ratio would be expected to go up for Israel Defense Forces soldiers and a longer pause is possible beyond the six weeks for the later phases.

Here are other headlines you should know:

• More on the hostage proposal: Hamas’ counteroffer  to a hostage and truce framework is “reasonable,” a source familiar with the discussions told CNN. It does not include two of its most prominent and public demands: that Israeli soldiers leave Gaza or for a deal to end the war. 
• Saudi Arabia's position: Before arriving in Israel, Blinken said Saudi Arabia still has a "strong interest" in normalizing relations with Israel, but that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made clear that the war in Gaza must end and there should be "a clear, credible, time-bound path to the establishment of a Palestinian state."
• Senate border bill: US President Joe Biden said Tuesday that those who oppose a  Senate border bill  are “denying aid” to Palestinian people who are “really suffering.” The bill includes security assistance for Israel and humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza and the West Bank.
• Meanwhile in Gaza: There was fighting between between Israel and Hamas in multiple parts of the Gaza Strip, with operations in Khan Younis and "targeted raids in the northern and central Gaza Strip," the Israel Defense Forces said . Journalists working for CNN in Gaza reported that Israeli fire, including the shelling of an apartment block, caused multiple casualties across the territory since Monday.

Blinken arrives in Israel ahead of key meetings with top Israeli officials

From CNN's Jennifer Hansler

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has arrived in Israel ahead of meetings Wednesday with key government officials to press for a “humanitarian pause” as international pressure to end the conflict in Gaza continues to mount.

The stakes are high for Blinken's discussions in Tel Aviv and were made even higher by news Tuesday that Hamas has put forward a response to a proposal meant to secure the freedom of the remaining hostages and a sustained cessation of the fighting in Gaza.

Blinken said Tuesday he would discuss the counterproposal with Israeli officials. 

“There’s still a lot of work to be done, but we continue to believe that an agreement is possible and, indeed, essential. And we will continue to work relentlessly to achieve it,” Blinken said at a news conference in Doha on Tuesday.

The US diplomat is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as key officials in the Israeli war cabinet.

In those meetings, Blinken is expected to focus on pushing Israel toward a “humanitarian pause,” as President Joe Biden's administration calls it.

Israel’s intelligence agency says officials are evaluating Hamas’ response to a potential hostage deal

From CNN’s Ivana Kottasova and Zahid Mahmood

Officials involved in negotiations for a potential hostage deal in Gaza are evaluating Hamas’ response to it, Israel’s intelligence agency said Tuesday.

“Hamas's reply has been conveyed by the Qatari mediator to the Mossad,” said the statement, carried by the Israeli Prime Minister's office. "Details are being thoroughly evaluated by the officials involved in the negotiations."

Earlier on Tuesday, Hamas gave a “positive” response to a framework agreement on a hostage deal, but offered few details in a short statement.

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Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah”: Implications of Houthi Missile and Drone Improvements

Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.

As the Iran-backed rebels make further range leaps that bring them closer to reaching Israel and other countries, the United States needs to start viewing them as a proliferation challenge beyond Yemen’s civil war.

On March 25, Yemen’s Houthi militia attacked Saudi Arabia with eighteen explosive drones and eight ballistic missiles, among other weapons, striking energy targets as far away as the oil-rich Eastern Province (around 900 miles from the launch points) and the Red Sea coast (up to 650 miles away). Such attacks are becoming a weekly occurrence, underlining the presence of a mature missile/drone assembly industry in Houthi-held areas of Yemen and foreshadowing further range increases that could allow the Iran-backed rebels to reach new targets if they so desire —perhaps Israel given their known enmity toward that country, or even Egypt and Jordan as part of a wider effort to exert themselves in the Red Sea (e.g., hindering international shipping, targeting Suez Canal infrastructure). Accordingly, U.S. diplomats and military planners will need to factor this threat complex into their future calculations beyond the current Yemen war.

Evolution of Houthi Missiles and Drones

Six years into the current conflict, the maturation of Houthi drones, missiles, and shorter-range rockets has been well-documented in multiple reports by the UN Panel of Experts, the U.S. government, specialist technical consultancies, and other sources. Their full suite of long- and short-range strike systems has evolved in three stages:

Initial systems. The Houthis’ early supply of rockets and converted air defense systems came through two sources: forming an alliance with deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh, and raiding or seizing military depots. A 2015 Saudi air campaign against known armories removed some long-range missiles from the Houthi arsenal, and the rest of this initial arsenal was expended by 2017, with assistance from a minor advisory effort by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). At least six OTR-21 Tochka and 18 FROG-7 artillery rockets (called Zelzal by the Houthis) were fired at close-range targets in Yemen and the Jizan and Najran border provinces of Saudi Arabia, while four surviving prewar R-17 Scud-B or Hwasong-6 (North Korean Scud-C) missiles were fired into the kingdom at ranges up to 500 miles. The Houthi long-range mainstay during this period was the Qahir-1, a converted Yemeni S-75/SA-2 surface-to-air missile capable of hitting ground targets around 190 miles away, albeit with very poor accuracy and a small payload.

Developing new systems. The Qahir-1 conversion was the first strong indicator of Iran’s role in mentoring Houthi missile forces, mirroring Tehran’s own conversion of Soviet S-75/SA-2 missiles into the Tondar-69 short-range ballistic missile. In 2017-2018, IRGC advisors were integral to the development of several advanced new platforms well beyond the capacity of Yemeni technicians:

• The Qasef-2K, a clone of Iran’s Ababil-T explosive drone (or loitering munition), intended for use against targets inside Yemen and up to 120 miles off the Red Sea coast.
• A precision strike version of the solid-fuel Badr artillery rocket that could be assembled almost entirely inside Yemen and fired at Saudi border provinces at ranges of around 100 miles.
• The Sammad series of loitering munitions, which emerged in 2018 and could mount symbolic strikes on Saudi targets as far away as Shaybah (750 miles) and Ras Tanura (900 miles), as well as Abu Dhabi International Airport in the United Arab Emirates (850 miles).
• The liquid-fuel Burkan-2H medium-range ballistic missile, which combined Scud parts and Iranian Qiam missile parts with the express purpose of reaching Riyadh and Yanbu (650 miles). In February 2021, an extended-range version (Burkan-3 or Zolfaqar) struck Ras Tanura at a range of 900 miles.

Maturing capabilities, increasing strikes. Given the number of attacks that have been launched in recent years using all of these systems, it is clear that Iran and the Houthis have developed a small but effective military industry in Sanaa and Saada. As the UN Panel of Experts documented , this industry fuses imports from Iran (e.g., drone engines, guidance systems, liquid/solid-fuel components) with domestically available military items and imported industrial materials (e.g., fiberglass). Through such methods, the Houthis can sustain a prolonged campaign of rocket, drone, and missile strikes. According to The Washington Institute’s count of announced attacks, the rate of launches is greatly accelerating—this March alone, 70 major weapons systems were fired into Saudi Arabia (24 Sammad-3, 25 Qasef-2K, 17 Badr type, 3 Burkan-3, and 1 Quds-2 cruise missile), compared to 25 in February and 3 in January.

Next Stages in Houthi Strike Operations

On or just before March 12, the Houthis showcased a number of new systems and variants at an arms exhibition in Sanaa. These and other revelations indicate that the next steps in Houthi strike capabilities will likely include the following:

• Increasing accuracy in artillery rockets. Houthi artillery rockets have progressed from the Badr-1 (unguided), to the Badr-1P and Badr-F (guided with a claimed circular error probable of 3 meters), to new variants called Sair, Qasim, and Nakal (the Houthis claimed to use a Sair in the March 25 strike). If the latest systems can combine accuracy with slightly extended range, they could seriously disrupt the Saudi airbase in Khamis Mushait, the linchpin for the defense of Marib .
• Use of Sammad-4 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs). A bomb-dropping UCAV variant of the Sammad like the one shown at the exhibition would allow the Houthis to use a single drone for repeated attacks against a wide variety of Red Sea targets, including ships and air defense systems.
• Use of delta-wing attack drones and Quds-2 cruise missiles. Also shown at the March exhibition, Waid is the Houthi name for the loitering munition that Iran used to attack Saudi pipelines and the Abqaiq oil facility in May and September 2019, respectively. Those attacks came from Iraq at a range of up to 600 miles; in Houthi hands, a weapon with such reach would improve their strike capabilities against Red Sea coastal targets and possibly parts of Riyadh. The Quds-2 cruise missile, the Houthi name for Iran’s 430-mile-range Ya-Ali missile, was highlighted at the exhibition as well, and will likely turn up in Yemen in greater numbers soon, further threatening Red Sea targets.
• Potential development of Burkan-4. The range jump from Burkan-2H (650 miles) to Burkan-3 (900 miles) was a worrisome 38% increase. Eilat, at the southern tip of Israel, is just 1,100 miles away from certain Houthi launch areas, and the rest of Israel (along with various parts of Egypt and Jordan) are within 1,250 miles. In other words, with an additional range increase of just 20%, Houthi missiles (or Sammad drones) would be capable of striking Israel—which may explain why some of that country’s overstretched missile defenses are already redeploying to face Yemen.

Policy Implications Beyond the Yemen War

If the Houthis overrun Marib, Yemen’s energy hub, they will effectively win the war they launched in 2014 when they overran Sanaa. Even without Marib, they now control the capital, two major Red Sea ports, and most of the population, which they can use as cannon fodder on the battlefield and human shields off of it. Thus, either a win or a draw would ensconce the Houthis as a new “southern Hezbollah” on the Red Sea—mirroring the position of Lebanese Hezbollah on the Mediterranean—with a growing arsenal of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones capable of threatening the Suez Canal, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Gulf states, the Red Sea states, and perhaps even Israel. To counter this threat during the remainder of the war and afterward, the United States should take the following steps:

• Prevent further Houthi expansion. U.S. interests are not served by the Houthis controlling Marib, which may be a springboard for further expansion southward and eastward. Washington should leverage a full range of tools to prevent this outcome, such as: designating various leaders of Ansar Allah (the Houthi movement’s formal name) under Executive Order 13611, the authority used for blocking the property of individuals who threaten “the peace, security, or stability of Yemen”; undermining Houthi leaders by disclosing intelligence on their corruption or Iranian ties; and conducting nonlethal U.S. demonstrations of force in support of Marib’s defense, such as information operations broadcasts and resupply airdrops to the defenders.
• Tighten the screws on Houthi strike forces. The United States and its partners should intensify their efforts to map out missile and drone procurement networks and expose them to kinetic, cyber, financial, and counter-smuggling operations. Southeast Yemen and Oman are the primary import locations, so they should receive the most scrutiny. Separately, any international peace deal and sanctions relief must be conditioned on the Houthi part of Yemen removing Iranian technicians and coming back into compliance with the Missile Technology Control Regime—which means giving up all of its missiles.
• Build shared early-warning networks in the Red Sea. Given the growing threat that the emerging “southern Hezbollah” poses to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, and Jordan, Washington should quietly convene a closed-door meeting of this Red Sea security quartet and develop medium-term plans for southward-facing defensive cooperation .
• Think the unthinkable. Although the war to roll back the Houthi coup has become a political lightning rod in the United States, Washington should undertake a dispassionate review of its policy toward the Houthis, assessing their future intentions toward not only U.S. personnel and facilities in the region, but also Israel, international shipping, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Hezbollah. If such a review concludes that the Houthis are likely to be a U.S. adversary in the future regardless of how the Yemen conflict ends, then officials should start thinking about a containment strategy now rather than later. Given the group’s growing long-range arsenal and its commitment to its official motto of “Death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam,” such contingency planning already seems prudent.

Michael Knights, the Bernstein Fellow with The Washington Institute, has visited Yemen and the Gulf coalition states multiple times to observe military operations during the war. Institute research assistant Henry Mihm provided data analytics for this PolicyWatch.

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IDF intercepts cruise missile likely fired from Iraq

The idf confirms that a missile fired from the east was intercepted; no organization has yet claimed responsibility for the launch, but it is likely to have been fired by pro-iranian militias in iraq .

Cruise missile, apparently fired from Iraq, shot down over northern Israel – IDF

I sraeli air defenses shot down a cruise missile fired at the southern Golan Heights “from the east,” the Israel Defense Forces said Thursday.

The army has described past attacks from Iraq as “from the east.”

The projectile had originally been thought to be a drone and triggered sirens.

No injuries or damage were caused in the attack.

There was no claim of responsibility from Iran-backed militias in Iraq. The groups have claimed a number of drone attacks on the southern city of Eilat in the last several months.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq — a loose formation of armed groups affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces, itself a coalition of former paramilitary forces integrated into Iraq’s regular armed forces — has claimed dozens of drone attacks on Israel amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Many of the militia’s claims have been exaggerated, but in one case it managed to hit an Israeli Navy base in Eilat, causing damage. The Iran-backed group said it had struck a “vital target” in Israel “with appropriate weapons,” without elaborating further.

Along with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, Iran-backed groups in Yemen and Syria have claimed to have launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel during the ongoing war sparked by Hamas’s devastating October 7 terror onslaught.

Additionally, Lebanon’s Hezbollah has attacked communities and IDF positions in northern Israel on a near-daily basis in attacks it says are in support of Gazans amid Israel’s war against Hamas.

Iran also carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel last month with hundreds of drones and missiles.

Also on Thursday, Israeli air defenses mistakenly shot down an IDF drone over the northern border community of Shlomi.

The IDF said it was investigating the incident.

Sirens had sounded in Shlomi due to fears of falling shrapnel.

Before that incident, an apparent drone launched from Lebanon was intercepted by the Iron Dome over northern Israel.

The post Cruise missile, apparently fired from Iraq, shot down over northern Israel – IDF appeared first on The Times of Israel .

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Ukraine Fires AIM-9X Sidewinder Missiles from NASAMS

Recently released footage shows an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile being fired from Ukrainian NASAMS fire unit.

Ukraine has begun using the AIM-9X Sidewinder AAM (Air-to-Air Missile) as a ground-launched AD (Air Defense) missile from the NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System), going by a promotional feature released by Ukraine recenlty.

In a clip, the missile goes on to destroy the target in a WVR (Within Visual Range) engagement, consistent with its orientation as a short-range anti-aircraft air-launched missile.

The missile’s operation is shown as a part of an eight-and-a-half minute long news feature about United24, about Ukraine’s air defense efforts before Russia’s missile barrages. The feature begins with the missile leaving the six-canister launcher and quickly turning direction to end in a fireball. This indicates an aerial target has been intercepted.

Militarnyi reported that the NASAMS 3 system was used in the firing. Only this version of the system can fire the ‘X’ variant of the AIM-9 (AIM-9X).

“We have (shot down) 252 confirmed targets, including 114 drones and 137 cruise missiles,” said “Baron,” an officer interviewed as a part of the news feature.

The high interception rates however also come with a downside of expending those many missiles. As will be explained subsequently and stated by the subjects themselves in the feature, the missile’s service essentially represents an industrial issue, where replenishing it is difficult, while Russia’s military factories are churning out arms unabated.

⚡🇺🇦💪🚀💥Ukraine has received the AIM-9X Sidewinder RVV for use with their NASAMS SAMs. The AIM-9X is the latest version of the AIM-9 and confirms that Ukraine has received the most advanced NASAMS 3 SAMs. pic.twitter.com/TwblEF9qGl — 🇺🇦 UkraineNewsLive🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) May 28, 2024

AIM-9X – AAM-Turned-SAM

The AIM-9X is a short-range air-to-air missile with an infrared homing warhead, suited for intercepting high-pressure aerial targets. When launched from the ground, this missile’s range is however limited to 12-km. Ukraine also uses the original NASAMS, that fires the AIM-120 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile). It was developed jointly by Norway’s Kongsberg and Raytheon (now RTX).

The ‘X’ is the most advanced version of the AIM series of short-range AAMs in the US inventory. A product of RTX, it has a solid-state infrared homing system. It also features a high off-boresight focal-plane array seeker mounted on a highly maneuverable airframe with a greatly improved infrared counter-countermeasures feature. It has an advanced ‘Block II’ subvariant that entered full-rate production in September 2015. A ‘Block III’ iteration too is under development.

“The AIM-9X incorporates many AIM-9M legacy components (rocket motor, warhead and active optical target detector), but its performance far exceeds the legacy Sidewinder. Unlike previous AIM-9 models, the AIM-9X can even be used against targets on the ground,” according to NAVAIR (Naval Air Systems Command).

The missile and the launcher have also been fused before, when in May 2019 , the Royal Norwegian Air Force tested an AIM-9X Block II from a NASAMS at the country’s Andoya Test Range.

War of Mass Manufacturing

The video has Ukrainian military personnel speaking in the background – as the AIM-9X hits the target – about that being the third target being shot down. The identity of the target is not known. But Russia usually uses a combination of coordinated long-range stand-off missile fires.

These include the Kh-101 ALCM (Air-Launched Cruise Missile) fired from the Tu-95 and the Tu-160 strategic bombers; the Iskandker and Iskander-M battlefield tactical missiles; the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile and the Geran-2 (or Geranium-2) derived from the Iranian Shahed-136 . These projectiles are fired in coordination across the nearly 965-km frontline into Ukrainian rear military targets or power-generation and civilian-military targets into its cities.

A previous analysis, based on Western reports , showed how even rising shoot downs of Russian drones and cruise missiles, while being celebrated by the Ukrainian Air Force, was also exhausting its stock of Western SAMs. This was then concluded to be a Russian strategy of allowing the tactical losses of its missiles for the larger strategic goal of depleting Ukraine’s Western missiles.

Three aspects put this phenomenon in perspective. One, the missiles were neither manufactured nor assembled in Ukraine. Its defense industry too is unable to undertake any large-scale production of capital weapons, as most of it has been destroyed by Russia in its officially stated “demilitarization” goal. Secondly, these missiles come from US and European NATO militaries’ own armories, which is effectively weakening them further. Moreover, the current defense industrial problems in the US and Europe, that currently cannot undertake large-scale mass arms production for conventional wars, are only beginning to be addressed.

It will be a while until their private arms industries’ new factories and manufacturing lines approved over the last year will be up and running. Even then, it is possible that the factories might be flooded with orders to replenish their militaries’ original inventories that were emptied after donating to Ukraine.

‘Russia Overwhelms AD Systems’

“Baron” himself touched upon this state of affairs. While highly rating the Russian and Soviet SAMs and revealing he commanded the “seriously” effective S-300 once, he said he would still prefer Western systems like the Patriot, NASAMS, or the IRIS-T. But he added that Russians are now “selecting one, two or three targets and carrying out a combined strike exclusively at them, rather than attacking everything at once.”

“They simply overload the air defense system,” he added. The narrator then touched upon the “lack of air defense systems and the missiles for them in Ukraine.” “Over the last six months” there were instances where Baron’s unit “saw targets but had nothing to shoot them down with.” Baron said earlier in the interview that sometimes they “loaded the launcher twice” during an enemy strike.

Their “record” is “16 launches in one battle,” of which they “destroyed 12 targets.” The “juiciest target” is the “Kh-101.” The heavy-hitting ALCM that has been recorded to have variants releasing decoys and sporting dual warheads – possibly developed and fielded during the war.

“There were times when nine cruise missiles were flying towards me and I only had three shots left,” Baron added. But the “Russians have a trump card,” which is the “missile stock.” “They can even afford shooting at (Ukrainian) artillery with anti-aircraft missiles.” Think tanks like CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) and Atlantic Council have noted that Russia’s defense production remains largely unaffected, as the Western sanctions have had limited impact.

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• Cruise Missiles

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Ukraine's Air Force downs 7 cruise missiles and 32 Shahed drones overnight

The Russians have launched missile and air strikes on military facilities and critical infrastructure in Ukraine on the night of 29-30 May, using 19 missiles and 32 Shahed drones. All drones and seven cruise missiles have been successfully downed.

Source: Ukraine’s Air Force

Details: In particular, the Russians launched eight S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft missiles at Kharkiv Oblast, 11 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95 MS strategic bombers (Russia’s Saratov Oblast) and 32 Shahed drones from the Russian city of Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Cape Chauda in temporarily occupied Crimea.

Quote: "As a result of combat efforts, seven Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 32 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs were downed within Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Kherson, Kyiv and Vinnytsia oblasts."

Details: Anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force, mobile fire groups and electronic warfare units of Ukraine’s Defence Forces were involved in repelling the Russian attack.

Background:

Four strategic bombers took off from the Olenya air base (Murmansk Oblast, Russia) on the night of 29-30 May. Later it was reported that they launched cruise missiles.

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