the tour championship expert picks

Tour Championship Betting Picks and Predictions

The PGA Tour is in Atlanta, Georgia, for the Tour Championship. OddsChecker's golf handicapper and expert Andy Lack gives us his best picks for the 2023 Tour Championship.

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The remaining 30 players on the PGA Tour head to Atlanta, Georgia for the final event of the 2022-2023 season. This tournament has undergone a number of structural changes over the years. Starting in 2007, it was the final event of the four tournament FedEx Cup playoffs, with eligibility determined by FedEx Cup points accumulated throughout the season. From 2019 onward, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events, and the Tour Championship moved from mid September to late August. What also changed in 2019 was the addition of a staggered start. The PGA Tour wanted to ensure that the winner of the tournament this week would also be the winner of the FedEx Cup. 

The player with the most FedEx Cup points leading into this week ( Scottie Scheffler ) will begin the tournament at 10-under par. The player with the second most points ( Viktor Hovland ) will begin at eight under par. The player with the third most points ( Rory McIlroy ) will begin at seven under par, and so on down to the fifth at five under par. Player ranked six through 10 will begin at four under, 11 through 15 will begin at three under, and so on, all the way down to numbers 26-30, who will begin at even par. East Lake Golf Club has been the Tour Championship’s home since 2004, and it is once again sure to provide a stern test for the game’s very best.

Before we get into our picks for the Tour Championship, make sure to take a moment to check out these awesome sports betting offers for this week. We have teamed up with OddsChecker to ensure that you claim $1000s in first-bet bonuses so that you can bet on these 2023 Tour Championship selections with more confidence this week.

Tour Championship: Course Preview

East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia was designed by Donald Ross in 1913, but it received a substantial renovation by Rees Jones over the last fifteen years. Rees enacted his usual method of pinching in the fairways, adding bunkers and adding length, and East Lake now features the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour. Jones’ methods have not necessarily made the course more challenging however, as last year it ranked 24th out of 38 courses in scoring difficulty, and we saw 17 rounds of 65 or better. Of course, much of that has to do with the fact that much of the fat has been trimmed, and all 30 players that have made it to this week are here for a reason. 

East Lake still features some gnarly and unpredictable Bermuda rough, and it ranked ninth out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and sixth out of 38 courses in rough penalty. Unlike other mid scoring to tougher courses Bermuda courses such as TPC Southwind, TPC Sawgrass, and PGA National, East Lake is not defined by its water hazards. Water only comes into play on four holes and East Lake ranked 32nd out of 38 courses last year in penalty strokes. East Lake is a death by 1,000 paper cuts course, far more in the same vein as Innisbrook than the aforementioned water intensive tracks. 

Outside of the Bermuda rough, East Lake’s greatest defense is its stout quartet of par threes, which all play over 200 yards. While playing from the fairway is certainly essential at the Donald Ross design, nearly 40% of strokes gained over the last two years have come via approach. We’ve even seen inaccurate drivers find some modicum of success here with elite approach play. The green complexes here, unlike other Ross courses, are actually incredibly benign and provide very little pushback. East Lake ranked amongst the easiest on the PGA Tour last year in strokes gained around the green and putting difficulty. The formula this week is accurate driving combined with a mix of precise short iron and long iron play. The starting strokes obviously throws an interesting wrench into the betting markets this week, but East Lake remains a proper ball-striker’s course where we can take our chances with the flat-stick.

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Tour Championship Key Stats

• Driving Accuracy Percentage
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• Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda Courses

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Tour Championship: Outright Winner

Scottie Scheffler (+162) (Bet $100 to collect $262) Bet365 has the best Scottie Scheffler odds

There is really only one fitting solution to this PGA Tour season, and that’s Scottie Scheffler running away with the FedEx Cup after his historic ball-striking run. With another top-five finish at the BMW, his 12th of the season, Scheffler was up to his old tricks once again. The former Masters Champion gained over 13 strokes ball-striking at Olympia Fields, which is the best that he’s hit the ball since the Memorial. Once again, his flat-stick prevented him from crossing the finish line. 

Fortunately for him, East Lake features some of the easiest and most straightforward greens on the PGA Tour, and it is a difficult golf course to chase on. Scheffler generally spots a stroke or two on the field every week with his putter while lapping the field in tee to green. Even if he gives back one or two on the greens, it’s hard to imagine that anyone catches him on this golf course. Scheffler remains the number one driver of the ball, and number one approach player in this entire field, and East Lake is the perfect golf course to accentuate his ball-striking prowess and mask his putting woes. We’re due for a runaway, and this is the week we’ll get it.

As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the  Tour Championship odds at OddsChecker.

Scottie Scheffler is now best-priced at +162 at Bet365, +150 at BetRivers, +140 at DraftKings, and +135 at FanDuel, a stark $27 to $12 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Scottie Scheffler pick with OddsChecker.

Russell Henley (Without Starting Strokes) (+3300) (Bet $100 to collect $3,400) Go to Bet365 to get the best Russell Henley odds

Considering I feel strongly that Scottie Scheffler is going to run away with the actual FedEx Cup, let’s turn our attention to hunting for value in the “Without Starting Strokes” market. While it is to let fly under the radar, there are few players in the world playing better golf right now than Russell Henley. The Georgia alumni just put together his third top-10 finish in a row at the BMW Championship, where he finished second in an elite field to only Scottie Scheffler in tee to green. Henley now travels to a golf course in East Lake that should be far better suited for his game than Olympia Fields. 

The three-time PGA Tour winner is one of the biggest risers both from tee to green and with the flat stick when placed on Bermuda golf courses, and his four top-10 finishes in a row at the Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club should be translatable to success at East Lake as well. While Henley has not played the Atlanta staple since 2017, he has a 12th and a third in two starts at East Lake, gaining over four strokes to the field in both occurrences. This is unsurprising, considering that he is the only player to rank top-five in this field in both accuracy and overall approach play. I am completely enamored by Henley’s course fit, and I see a tremendous amount of value on him to shoot the lowest 72 hole score in his native state of Georgia.

A PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York, Andy Lack has contributed to sites such as Golf Digest, GolfWRX, OddsChecker Rotoballer, the Score, and now Golf Monthly. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. When he’s not writing, Andy can likely be found somewhere on a golf course pursuing his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur.

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Tour Championship expert picks: 4 wagers we really like this week

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Do you like Rory McIlroy this week? Our expert does.

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And then there were 30.

With each passing week of the FedEx Cup Playoffs , the fields have shrunk and the purses have swelled.

Now comes the grand finale, the Tour Championship , at East Lake Golf Club, in Atlanta, where a gaggle of guys will vie for a giant pot of gold. First place pays a cool $18 million, and dead last isn’t a hardship either. The golfer at the bottom of the leaderboard will walk off with $500,000, and a guaranteed spot in all four majors next year.

Here are the starting positions for all 30 players at the Tour Championship

It’s not just any event. And it’s not the same-old format. The Tour Championship features a staggered start , based on the current FedEx Cup standings. The current points leader begins the competition at 10 under; second place begins at eight under; third place at seven under and so on down the line. If you’re keeping score at home, that means Scottie Scheffler will have a two-stroke head start over Patrick Cantlay , followed by Xander Schauffele and Sam Burns — a pack of the world’s best, chasing the current world-number one.

As for our format, we’re keeping it the same by asking our expert prognosticator, Andy Lack, to supply us with his four favorite wagers. And because we like to track public opinion, too, we’re also including data from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform (and GOLF.com affiliate) that allows fans to engage with the action through a range of games. You can check out those Chirp stats at the bottom of this page.

Here’s to a profitable final week of the season.

ANDY LACK’S PICKS

Outright winner (with starting strokes): rory mcilroy (14/1).

Odds Available at BetMGM 

Let’s rewind to the Tour Championship in 2019, when McIlroy started four strokes off the lead, and went on to win by five in runaway fashion. It’s undeniable that the World No. 3 faces an uphill battle this week, starting six strokes behind Scottie Scheffler. Still, my recommendation would be to embrace the variance, as there is little value in betting the leaders.

McIlroy has a sterling resume at East Lake, with six top-10s in eight appearances, a runner-up, and two wins. From a strokes gained and overall consistency standpoint, the four-time winner has been the best player in the world this year. No player has gained more strokes to the field in the four major championships, and McIlroy has put himself in position constantly, finishing in the top 10 in 50% of his starts this season.

Last week, he could have claimed his second victory of the year had the putter been more cooperative, as McIlroy gained 5.9 strokes off the tee and 2.4 strokes on approach. The Northern Irishman’s dominance off the tee is a given, but his iron play this season has also been remarkable. McIlroy has gained over a stroke and a half on approach in 10 straight starts. East Lake is a ball-striker’s course through and through, and there’s no reason to believe that Rory won’t continue to thrive in Atlanta. 

Outright Winner (Without Starting Strokes): Corey Conners (35/1)

Odds Available at BetMGM

While Conners is likely too far back to win the FedEx Cup, I expect him to greatly improve his position on the leaderboard. The Canadian is coming off a fifth-place finish last week at the BMW where he gained 3.6 strokes off the tee, and 5.1 strokes on approach. Conners has the ball on an absolute string right now, and he remains one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the world. East Lake consistently ranks top five every year in missed fairway penalty due to its sticky and unpredictable Bermuda rough. There may not be a player in this field I trust more to keep the ball in the short grass off the tee this week than Conners, and if the putter can cooperate, the former Valero Texas Open can easily shoot the lowest gross score. 

Top 10: Collin Morikawa (+270)

Odds Available at FanDuel

Morikawa’s 44th-place finish last week at the BMW Championship was misleading, to say the least. Heading into the final stretch on Sunday, the two-time major winner was only three strokes off the lead, before he proceeded to four putt for double bogey from 15 feet, and dunk two wedge shots into the water on the next hole. Outside of one disastrous hole, where last year’s Open Championship winner lost a whopping 4.7 strokes on approach, Morikawa struck his irons extremely well. East Lake is a golf course that rewards accurate driving and elite middle to long iron play, and even in a down year, Morikawa remains one of the world’s best in both of those categories. 

Matchup: Scottie Scheffler (-130) over Patrick Cantlay

Odds Available at DraftKings

This price just feels too cheap on Scottie Scheffler. I believe that the reigning Masters champion will outperform Cantlay this week, even if they were starting on even footing. Yet consider the fact that Scheffler is starting the week already two ahead of Cantlay, and this matchup feels like a slam dunk. Cantlay’s win at the BMW Championship was certainly impressive, but I still have major concerns about him on Bermuda-grass courses. The eight-time PGA Tour winner lowers his baseline on Bermuda significantly, and outside of one strong performance at East Lake last year where he was in peak form, Cantlay has found little to no success at East Lake, and on southeastern Bermuda courses in general. I expect Scheffler, who is coming off an elite ball-striking performance in his own right, to take care of business. 

WHO FANS LIKE TO WIN

The Trifecta game on Chirp calls for users to make three picks: a favorite, a contender, and a long shot. Nearly 500 Chirp users have already made their choices. Here’s a look at the three top vote getters in each category, along with the percentage of support they have received. (Want to play for yourself? Click here! )

Favorites (players ranked 1-20)

Scottie Scheffler (35.43)

Rory McIlroy (30.15)

Patrick Cantlay (16.08)

Contenders (players ranked 21-60)

Xander Schauffele (36.43)

Justin Thomas (20.60)

Will Zalatoris (12.56)

Long Shots (players ranked 61 and higher)

Hideki Matsuyama (20.10)

Cameron Young (19.35)

Sungjae Im (12.06)

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2023 Tour Championship Expert Picks: Trust the chasing pack

By brett hoffman | aug 23, 2023.

We’ve reached the Tour Championship, the final tournament of the PGA Tour season.

The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings descend on the renowned East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. This tournament features the largest purse in golf, $70M, with the winner cashing $18M.

The Tour Championship features a starting strokes format, meaning the leader of the season-long FedEx Cup standings, Scottie Scheffler, begins the tournament at 10 under par, with those behind him starting with scores on a staggered scale. (No. 2, Viktor Hovland, starts at 8 under, No. 3, Rory McIlroy, at 7 under, etc., all the way down to the final five in the standings, who begin at even par, 10 shots behind Scheffler.)

The golfer who finishes the tournament with the lowest score, incorporating the starting strokes, will win both the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup.

The betting market is offering two options to bet; one is factoring in starting strokes and the other is betting on the winner without starting strokes. For this betting preview, the focus is on Winner Without Starting Strokes , and we’re targeting 3 players in Atlanta.

2023 Tour Championship: Picks and Best Bets for East Lake.

Note: All listed odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. For more betting content and insights for all sports check out Betsided.

(Tournament Winner Without Starting Strokes)

Sungjae Im (+3500)

The South Korean ace famously torched East Lake to end the 2022 season, nearly winning the tournament despite starting at 4 under, 6 shots back. The sun is starting to rise at the most critical point of the season (Finished 7th at the BMW, and 6th in Memphis).

Im lives in Atlanta too, so he’ll be comfortable. Sungjae has the ammo to track down the leaders.

Jordan Spieth (+3500)

When everyone jumps off the Jordan roller coaster, that’s when I like to ride it. Spieth will begin play at even par, so he’ll be playing loose and with house money, making him a danger man.

Spieth excels at East Lake, he won here in 2015, finished T2 in 2013, and T7 in 2017. With tons of Tour Championship experience, Spieth will climb up the board in Atlanta this weekend.

Next. 2023 Tour Championship Power Rankings. dark

Tom Kim (+4000)

This will be Tom Kim’s maiden voyage to East Lake, so no course history to lean on, but that hasn’t stopped the young man in the past. Tom Kim has recorded wins at two properties he never played on before ( Sedgefield at the Wyndham Championship in 2022, and TPC Summerlin at the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open).

Kim has been flashing lately, posting three top 10s in his last 4 starts, and he certainly has the moxie to navigate East Lake and the big stage.

2023 Tour Championship expert picks, betting rankings and fantasy golf tips

The 2023 Tour Championship is here, and we're back with our PGA Tour expert picks and betting tips for the PGA Tour event at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga.

Every week, we share our PGA Tour player rankings, and they are agnostic of competition. Whether you're betting on golf, playing in a fantasy golf leagues or competing in a DFS (DraftKings, FanDuel) event, our picks highlight the top players to watch this week.

Here are our 2023 Tour Championship rankings and expert picks, as we do each week of the PGA Tour season.

2023 Tour Championship preview

The Tour Championship is this week, and the playoffs conclude this week with the PGA Tour stop in Atlanta at East Lake. Of course, we have the staggered strokes system to start, so the top-ranked players have an advantage. However, we're looking at our top 10 as the 10 best players before starting strokes come into play.

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2023 Tour Championship rankings: Top 10 expert picks

1. Rory McIlroy : Rory has been consistently strong since late spring, and he's the favorite to win a fourth FedEx Cup.

2. Scottie Scheffler : Scheffler fixed some of the woes of the last few weeks, and he's out for revenge after punting this away last year.

3. Viktor Hovland : Hovland has evolved into a totally different player in the last 12-13 months, and he can win anywhere at anytime.

4. Jon Rahm : Rahm has the driving game that should thrive in this environment, and he has some good Georgia vibes this year.

5. Max Homa : Homa has been solid for several months, and he's still very much in the FedEx Cup fight.

6. Patrick Cantlay : Cantlay is a tremendous PGA Tour-style player, and that should extend here to the season finale.

7. Brian Harman : The Open champion knocked off the rust at Olympia Fields, and he might be fresh for East Lake.

8. Xander Schauffele : Xander keeps putting himself into decent position going into the last round of the year, so maybe he'll do that again.

9. Sungjae Im : Sungjae continues to play just shy of brilliant golf, and he keeps finding a way into the Tour Championship.

10. Russell Henley : Henley has been brilliant the last several weeks, and he's hanging around some elite company.

About the author

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for nearly 20 years. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He is currently a +2.6 USGA handicap, and he has covered dozens of major championships and professional golf tournaments. He likes writing about golf and making it more accessible by answering the complex questions fans have about the pro game or who want to understand how to play golf better.

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Betting Analysis

Tour Championship picks 2022: Why Xander Schauffele will chase down Scottie Scheffler

Another week, another win. After two of our experts – Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo – correctly predicted Will Zalatoris’ victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Powers hit again on Patrick Cantlay at the BMW Championship, as did Lee Alldrick. We’re hot. Scorching hot, some would say.

Unfortunately, the PGA Tour regular season is coming to an end just as we’re starting to peak. Or, to put it another way, it’s ending just in time, because we can’t stay this hot for long.

We can, however, stay hot for one more week. Can anyone catch Scottie Scheffler at this week’s Tour Championship at East Lake? A few of our experts think so, at least in the starting-strokes format. We’ve also selected two winners for the “without” starting strokes format, forgoing our normal top-10 section. Let’s bring this thing home, shall we?

Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2022 Tour Championship.

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Tour Championship picks 2022: Winner WITH starting strokes

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week : Scottie Scheffler (+225, DraftKings) — I know that’s not going out on a limb at all. But I think he’s the bet. He has proven he can win from ahead. He’s in good form after a narrow miss last week at the BMW. It would be icing on the cake, and he’d lock up POY honors.

Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst : Xander Schauffele (+550, DraftKings) — I’m backing Xander without starting strokes this week. Considering he’s only starting four strokes behind Scottie Scheffler, I’ll back him in this market, too.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor : Xander Schauffele (+650, FanDuel) — Xander’s success at East Lake and in no-cut events isn’t a secret by this point. He’s long and accurate off the tee, a crucial combo for this course, and he is starting at six under. With Will Zalatoris’ withdrawal, that puts him behind just two golfers to start the week.

Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder : Patrick Cantlay (+300, DraftKings) — The second half of the season for Cantlay has been nothing short of magnificent. Over his last 11 starts, he has two wins, two runner-up finishes and five more top 15s. Those 42 rounds have produced more than two strokes gained per round. Not only has he been one of the best putters on tour during that stretch, he’s gained at least 0.25 strokes per round in all four major categories. He doesn’t have a flaw in his game and will look to successfully defend his FedEx Cup this week.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor : Rory McIlroy (10-1, PointsBet) — Rory came from five back in 2019 to win by three shots, and given his prodigious length off the tee and his prolonged consistency this summer, he could absolutely do it again.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor : Sam Burns (22-1, DraftKings) — While I do think Scottie wins with ease, I can’t bring myself to bet it. Bermuda Burns at 22-1, however, is very intriguing. He’s only five back, in the prime “lurking” zone, and he has 72 holes to make up the deficit. We’ve seen guys make up bigger deficits in 36 holes, so it’s not out of the question. If he can recapture the scorching-hot iron play we saw in Memphis two weeks ago, he’ll make enough putts to seriously challenge Scheffler and Cantlay at the top.

Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports : Scottie Scheffler (+225, DraftKings) — Despite his win last week I don’t fancy Cantlay this week which gives Scheffler a four-shot advantage over his next nearest competitor and a six-shot lead over all but four players in the field. That’s a big advantage. I’m happy to take the short odds considering he comes into this event ranked top 10 for SG/putting on Bermuda greens, SG/total at East Lake, SG/total at similar courses and Opportunities Gained over the last two months.

Past results: Golf Digest's betting panel is on FIRE. Last week, after both Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo hit on Will Zalatoris at 22-1 in Memphis, Powers went back-to-back by correctly predicting Patrick Cantlay’s BMW win at 14-1. That gives him four outright hits this season (Joaquin Niemann 60-1 at Riviera; Scottie Scheffler 22-1 at WMPO), which is tied for the most on the panel with Lee Alldrick, who also hit on Cantlay after recently predicting both of Tony Finau’s victories at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic as well as Rory McIlroy’s RBC Canadian Open win (8-1). Mayo’s Zalatoris cash was his third of the year, the first coming with Luke List’s 70-1 win at Torrey Pines and the second with McIlroy in Canada. Rick Gehman also picked up two wins in the fall by correctly predicting Sam Burns (16-1) to win the Sanderson Farms Championship and Viktor Hovland (19-1) to win the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Brandon Gdula also hit on Hovland at Mayakoba, as well as Justin Thomas at the PGA (16-1), and Stephen Hennessey cashed on Hideki Matsuyama (12-1) at the Zozo Championship.

Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (below) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts!

Tour Championship picks 2022: Winner WITHOUT starting strokes

Caddie: Cameron Young (30-1, DraftKings) — He has played well all year especially in big events with some decent finishes the last two weeks. It’s a golf course where a draw off the tee is very helpful, and he’ll be free-wheeling at least the first couple of days.

Mayo: Xander Schauffele (+750, DraftKings) — The 2017 winner at East Lake (And 2019, 2020 runner up (where he actually had the lowest 72-hole score)) had a hiccup at water logged TPC Southwind but rebounded quite nicely in Delaware. He finished third in SG/ball-striking, notching his third top-five finish over his past five starts. Worth noting, he’s never finished worse than seventh at East Lake in six tries.

Gdula: Viktor Hovland (27-1, FanDuel) — Hovland needs to make up ground in the net competition, as he starts at two under. In two starts at East Lake, he has gained strokes in all three tee-to-green areas in both years. His underlying putting data is really good, and we know he’s a strong birdie-maker.

Gehman: Matthew Fitzpatrick (18-1, DraftKings) — East Lake generally skews as one of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour schedule and shooting just a few under par each day is likely to put you in contention for the “Shadow Leaderboard” win. Fitzpatrick offers one of the most well-rounded games on tour. He’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in 10 of his last 11 and added more gains with his flat stick in eight of his last nine.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Smith (20-1, DraftKings) — These odds don’t really make too much sense to me. Smith’s been one of the best players in the world over the past 24 rounds, and approach will be important this week. The only thing that gives me pause is his penchant to miss fairways, but I’m willing to take a gamble on these odds in such a short field.

Powers, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (30-1, DraftKings) — The kid plays with reckless abandon on regular weeks. This week, he’s quite literally being asked to play with reckless abandon in order to have any chance of winning.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Xander Schauffele (+750, DraftKings) — Schauffele comes into this event ranked first for SG/total at East Lake and at courses similar to East Lake. It’s not surprising then to see that he has won the lowest 72-hole score here at East Lake twice in the last five years (finishing second, third and seventh the other three times). He also ranks sixth for SG/total in the field this week for SG/total over the last two months so his form is hot, too.

RELATED: Will Zalatoris withdraws from Tour Championship, will also miss Presidents Cup

Tour Championship picks 2022: Longshot/Sleeper to win (without starting strokes)

Caddie: Joaquin Niemann (30-1, DraftKings) — This would be another example of picking a player with a shot shape off the tee. Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Niemann all have that natural draw shape that will come in handy.

Mayo: Scott Stallings (80-1, DraftKings) — Every year, there’s the one player who fights his way from the back end of the standings, gets hot in August and makes a run towards the FedEx Cup. They rarely end up winning (thanks for nothing 2016 Ryan Moore and 2021 Kevin Na), but sometimes you get Billy Horschel and Bill Haas. While Aaron Wise or Corey Conners may make more sense, there’s no one from this tier hotter than Stallings entering East Lake. Plus, longer odds. That never hurts.

Gdula: Aaron Wise (42-1, FanDuel) — Wise starts at even par and will need to climb to earn points, so the aggression factor isn’t in question. He’s due for big-time putting regression and has above-average birdie-chance numbers.

Gehman: Tony Finau (16-1, DraftKings) — Starting six shots off the lead means that Finau has his work cut out for him, but if anyone is up for the task, it’s him. Finau will need to tap into his ceiling this week, but he has a ceiling higher than anyone else on tour. I’m not even exaggerating. There have only been seven occurrences this year where a golfer has gained 17-plus strokes to the field. Finau has three of them and no other golfer on tour has done it multiple times, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. He’s more than capable of closing this gap with a great week and these odds are too juicy to pass up.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Brian Harman (80-1, FanDuel) — This is a pick that will get nobody excited, but Harman has quietly been one of the most consistent golfers all summer with a third-place at the FedEx St. Jude, a sixth-place at The Open and an eighth at the Travelers. You know he’s going to find fairways, so he should be able to give himself a chance at these juicy odds.

Powers, Golf Digest: Sahith Theegala (80-1, DraftKings) — Last week, Theegala admitted he felt some serious heat on Sunday while he was sneaking his way into East Lake. Now that he’s here and he’s starting at even par, 10 back, he should feel no pressure and he’s free to fire away from the get-go.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Tony Finau (16-1, DraftKings) — Finau has been excellent over the last two months. He has two wins under his belt and comes into this event ranked first for SG/tee-to-green. He ranks eighth in the field for SG/total at East Lake and has two seventh-place finishes to his name here.

Tour Championship picks 2022: Players we're fading

Caddie: Tony Finau (14-1, BetRivers) — Sure, he has obviously proven he can play well anywhere. But he loves to cut the driver, and the ultra-fast greens at East Lake could cause him issues.

Mayo: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Too many strokes to claw back from at such short odds .

Gdula: Jon Rahm (14-1, FanDuel) — Rahm was last year’s co-leader in 72-hole scoring, but he’s starting at three under, two shots lower than the only come-from-behind winner we’ve had in this new format. I think he’s in a great position to play well – but not overcoming seven shots on Scheffler, five on Cantlay, etc.

Gehman: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Rahm is stuck in a math problem where he doesn’t necessarily possess the answer. Starting seven shots off the lead, a Rahm victory would be the largest comeback recorded in this format. If we start to calculate the paths to Rahm hoisting the FedEx Cup, we quickly realize that he needs to gain 17 strokes to the field over four rounds. That’s something he’s done exactly once in his career, when he won the 2020 Memorial. Barring the best four rounds of Rahm’s career, it’s unlikely he will find victory in Atlanta.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Ditto what the others said … he simply needs way too much to happen to make up those seven shots.

Powers, Golf Digest: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Not much to add here that hasn’t already been said.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Patrick Cantlay (+300, DraftKings) — Sure, he played very well last week, but East Lake does not suit his game. In 72-hole stroke play here Cantlay has finished in the bottom 10 three out of four tries. It’s not surprising then that he ranks second-to-last in the field this week for SG/total at similar courses. One of the main reasons for this is he is a poor putter on Bermuda greens, ranking just 19th in the field this week for SG/putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years.

RELATED: Tour Championship DFS picks: Why I’m not playing Scottie Scheffler

Tour Championship picks 2022: Matchups

Caddie: Billy Horschel (+105) over Collin Morikawa (DraftKings) — Billy has had success here and unfortunately Collin just cannot seem to find any consistency with the putter.

Mayo: Justin Thomas (+115) over Jon Rahm (DraftKings) — I have both JT and Rahm rated about equal this week, so we’re getting plus money on a coin flip. Thomas doesn’t have the best form at the moment, but in the 72-hole gross portion of this event, he’s finished with a top-10 score in each of his six starts.

Gdula: Scott Stallings (-142) over Sepp Straka (FanDuel) — We’re losing a stroke here to start and laying heavy odds, but Straka is the weakest long-term golfer in this field by a pretty wide margin. Stallings has about 0.7 strokes per round on him in my model, so he can make up that gap.

Gehman: Jordan Spieth (-125) over Max Homa (DraftKings) — Spieth was a roller-coaster again last week, contending for the lead before falling to T-19. Despite his sour weekend, Spieth still notched his third top-20 finish in his last four starts. Homa, who was once the hottest ball-striker on tour this summer, has cooled off significantly. He’s lost strokes on approach in five straight, something he hasn’t done in over two years. Now he heads to East Lake for the first time without his full complement of assets.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (-104) over Joaquin Niemann (FanDuel) — This is a bit of a fishy line. Hovland has far superior course history here, with Niemann losing a combined 17 strokes at East Lake in two appearances. Hovland had a fifth-place here last year, so despite oddsmakers hinting that they know something we don’t, I’ll take the bait with the course history.

Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns (+195) over Xander Schauffele (DraftKings) — I understand Xander has serious history here, but he’s only one stroke up on Burns, who feasts on Bermuda and has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last eight starts. This is just an absurd price.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Corey Conners (+105) over Collin Morikawa (Bet365) — Morikawa was all out of sorts during the final round last week and this seems to be a bit of a trend right now. He comes into this event ranked second-to-last for SG/putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years and sixth-to-last for SG/total over the last two months. Conners on the other hand ranks top 15 for SG/total over the last two months, Opportunities Gained over the last two months and SG/putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years.

Matchup Results from the BMW Championship: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Rahm (-110) over Thomas); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Scott (-125) over Harman); Powers: 1 for 1 (Cantlay (+100) over McIlroy); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (C. Davis (-110) over Riley); Caddie: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Mayo: 27-10-4 (up 15.52 units); Powers: 24-15-4 (up 8.64 units); Caddie: 23-17-3 (up 4.65 units); Alldrick: 23-18-2 (up 2.17 units); Gehman: 19-18-5 (down 0.49 units); Gdula: 20-20-1 (down 1.53 units); Hennessey: 21-21-1 (down 4.4 units) About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long- and short-form content, owner of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio .) Mayo ( @ThePME ) was named 2021 Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, while also being a finalist for Podcast of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year. Mayo won the 2020 FSWA Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award in 2020. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com .

Brandon Gdula , managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.

Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood .

Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains . His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.

TOUR Championship picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

By cody williams | aug 23, 2022.

Breaking down the TOUR Championship picks and best bets as we reach the season finale and try to cash our PGA Tour expert picks.

Talk about bittersweet. The end of the 2021-22 golf season is upon us with the 30 players remaining in the race for the FedExCup descending upon East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the TOUR Championship this week.

For those unfamiliar, the TOUR Championship changed its format to a staggered start based on the FedExCup standings after the penultimate playoff event. So now the leader in the standings, Scottie Scheffler in this year’s tournament, starts at 10-under. Thereafter, second place (Patrick Cantlay) starts at 8-under, Will Zalatoris would’ve started at 7-under if not for his WD due to a back injury, fourth place at 6-under, fifth at 5-under and then pods of five (places No. 6-10, No. 11-15, etc.) will start at 4-under all the way down to No. 26-30 in the FedExCup race starting at even par.

That makes betting and making TOUR Championship picks a bit more complicated than a normal week as most bookmakers are including the staggered scoring start into the odds that are being given. That’s why Scheffler is at a meager +200 to win because of where he’s starting.

We were close with Xander Schauffele to win and Jon Rahm to Top 5 last week but our only hit was Joaquin Niemann as a solid One and Done play. The card is a bit lighter this week but we dive into our last PGA Tour expert picks of the season with our TOUR Championship best bets to try and finish this year strong.

Note:  All odds are courtesy of WynnBet  unless noted as consensus odds. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided .

PGA Tour expert picks for TOUR Championship: Winner, Top 5, One and Done

Top 5 pick for TOUR Championship: Scott Stallings (+1100)

As we come into the TOUR Championship, Stallings is starting the week at 3-under and T10, meaning an opening birdie while the rest of the 3-unders par would immediately get him into the Top 5. But more importantly, the PGA Tour veteran is playing a brand of golf that just lends itself to having success at East Lake.

Not only did Stallings contend last week but he’s the third-best player in this field on approach in the last 20 rounds, gaining an eye-popping 0.98 strokes per round over that span. He has also gained 0.35 strokes or more in every other major category in that same timeframe and has been driving the ball fairly accurately too. After seeing a 3-under and 2-under starter make the Top 5 last year, the value on Stallings in his current form is too great for me to ignore and not back.

One and Done Pick for TOUR Championship: Sepp Straka

This isn’t where I thought I’d end up with this pick but, as I’ve mentioned, my strategy in One and Done left a lot to be desired and the names I could use are limited.

Straka is intriguing, though. Even if he doesn’t have history at East Lake, he’s been playing extremely well over the past two weeks, including losing to Zalatoris in the playoff in Memphis. He’s been striking the ball beautifully and thrived on the Bermuda grass at the FedEx St. Jude, so that plays in his favor as well. With him starting at 4-under, I like the value he presents as a solid starter in this tournament.

Pick to Win TOUR Championship: Xander Schauffele (+700)

I’m sticking to my guns with Xander Schauffele like I was on last week. But the case is even stronger as we head to the TOUR Championship.

His history at East Lake is astounding. He had the lowest score to par (15-under) in 2020 and also hasn’t finished outside the Top 5 in the new format in addition to winning the vent under the old format in 2017. Last week, he gained 2.15 strokes per round ball striking and putted well. Now at a place where he has arguably the best course history of anyone in the field — even better than Rory McIlroy, he starts at 6-under just four strokes off the lead and I think he makes up that ground to win.

TOUR Championship picks and best bets

Xander Schauffele to finish Top 5 (-111)

Doubling down on Schauffele, I love his odds not being that far removed from even to finish inside the Top 5 when he’s already starting in that position. When you then combine his recent form and his history at this event an venue, I don’t know how you don’t like the value he presents at this number.

Viktor Hovland to finish Top 10 (+190 consensus odds)

Hovland has been pretty frustrating to wager on as of late, but I love his pedigree as a ball-striker at a course where he made a run into the Top 5 last year. He’s starting at 2-under and T15 for the week with the staggered scoring but he was double digits under par for the tournament last season in just 72-hole stroke play. I love for him to find his ball-striking form again as he’s been inconsistent and vault just slightly up into the Top 10 to cash this ticket.

Joaquin Niemann over Jordan Spieth (Matchup, +100 consensus odds)

Fading Jordan Spieth early at the BMW was costly last week but I’m still ready to do it again. These two start at 2-under together but I don’t see how you can look at the steadiness and ball striking of Neimann and not think that even odds is superb value in relation to the unreliable Spieth, particularly the way he’s hit it off the tee with no semblance of consistency.

Longshot pick to win TOUR Championship: Sam Burns (+2500)

For the TOUR Championship, longshots are relative given the short odds for the leaders. So it’s wild to me that the player starting outright in fourth and five strokes off the lead, Sam Burns, is at +2500 this week. He’s an elite ball-striker who doesn’t get his due still, despite his wins over the past two seasons, and his game should be suited to thrive at East Lake. This is worth a little sprinkle given the value on the number in relation to the gap he has to make up in the staggered scoring.

dark. Next. Tiger Woods’ caddie gives update on The Cat’s potential pre-Masters schedule

For more from The PGA Tour , make sure to follow FanSided and stay tuned to our golf hub for all the latest news and results.

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The memorial tournament 2024 golf odds, pga picks, props and featured groups.

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DUBLIN, OHIO: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland, Adam Scott of Australia and Viktor Hovland of Norway ... [+] walk off the 18th tee during the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

A marquee Signature Event this week in the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village should provide a strong test for the limited field of 72 top golfers ahead of next week’s U.S. Open . The top 50 players plus ties make the cut, and players odds, profiles, matchups, tee times and featured groups are provided and updated as leading online sportsbooks and analysts provide more information by Wednesday.

Known as Jack's Place , the Nicklaus-designed masterpiece at Muirfield Village has been a regular stop on Tour since 1976. This is the 49th edition and fourth since the second course renovation in 2020, which included rebuilding of all 18 greens, relocation of several greens, contour changes on bentgrass greens, rebuilding bunkers, relocating, leveling and seeding tees, and renovating and seeding bentgrass fairways.

Hole-By-Hole Course Description And Overview

• The Memorial Tournament - June 6-9
• Muirfield Village Golf Club - Dublin, Ohio
• 7,569 yards, Par 72
• Purse: $20 million, $4 million to the winner

The course conditions and scoring have toughened since the 2020 renovation.

Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of 2024

Best 5% interest savings accounts of 2024, the memorial tournament 2024 odds.

Leading favorites and contenders golf odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

Odds leaders: 28 of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field.

• +360: Scottie Scheffler (Round 1 leader +1200)
• +850: Rory McIlroy (Round 1 leader +1800)
• +900: Xander Schauffele (Round 1 leader +1800)
• +1400: Collin Morikawa (Round 1 leader +2200)
• +1800: Viktor Hovland (Round 1 leader +2500)
• +2200: Ludvig Aberg (+220 top 10)
• +2500: Patrick Cantlay (+230 top 10)
• +3000: Justin Thomas (+240 top 10)
• +3500: Tommy Fleetwood (down from +4500, and +240 top 10)
• +4500: Hideki Matsuyama (+320 top 10)
• +5000: Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Russell Henley
• +5500: Jordan Spieth, Sahith Theegala, Matt Fitzpatrick
• +5500: Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Max Homa, Byeong Hun An
• +6000: Sungjae Im, Alex Noren, Si Woo Kim
• +6500: Tony Finau
• +7000: Billy Horschel, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, Cameron Young
• +7500: Will Zalatoris, Shane Lowry
• +8000: Jason Day, Denny McCarthy
• +9000: Brian Harman, Tom Hoge
• +10000: Harris English

72-Hole Winning Score: Over/Under 276.5 (Par 72)

Power rankings, golf stats and player profiles and performances are included as golfers take aim at a prestigious title at the Memorial.

The Memorial Tournament is presented by Workday, whose PGA Tour Ambassadors include Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick Matt Kuchar and Brandt Snedeker.

Types Of Bets And How To Read The Odds

Review the results and top players performances at the 2024 PGA Championship, won by Xander Schauffele. The course at Valhalla in Louisville plays similar length to Muirfield Village with bentrass greens and similar size, averaging 5,000 square feet.

Approach play stats are still more significant than driving stats at Muirfield Village when evaluating strokes gained data. Longer approach shots for proximity to hole stats are worth identifying on golfers as they also sharpen their Around the Green game with more rough around the smaller greens at Muirfield and limited runoff areas making hitting greens more difficult.

Missing the fairway’s has resulted in Muirfield having the second-lowest birdie percentage from the rough of any course on the PGA Tour.

• SG: Around the Green (fast)
• SG: Approach and Ball Striking
• SG: Putting (on bentgrass)
• SG: Tee-to-Green, Off the Tee
• Par-4 Scoring (focus 450-500 yards)
• Proximity to Hole (150-200+ yards)

In the 2023 tournament at Muirfield, 51% of approach shots came from beyond 175 yards.

Making birdies on Par 5’s is where scoring is made for your player picks at Muirfield. The four par 5s are the only holes which feature a scoring average below par. The SG: Par 5 leaders over their last 36 rounds on bentgrass greens and diffucult courses include Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Andrew Novak, Shane Lowry and Sahith Theegala.

Note that 14 of the past 16 winners have ranked inside the top-10 of SG: Approach for the week at Muirfield. That includes past winners Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, and Justin Rose.

Titleist has also unveiled the new GT2, GT3 and GT4 drivers on the PGA Tour this week. According to the company, Titleist drivers have been the No. 1-played models on the PGA Tour for the last five years. No word yet on which players might be making the switchover.

Leading golf analysts and contributors picks to win and top finishing position in the 2024 Memorial Tournament. Check back Tuesday and Wednesday as picks become available.

• Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (3), Collin Morikawa (2), Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and longshots Byeong Hun An, Sahith Theegala, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick
• SportingLife: Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa, Sam Burns and big longshots Rickie Fowler, Austin Eckroat
• Golf Bet: Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and longshots Si Woo Kim and Will Zalatoris with top-10 finishes Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns and Morikawa
• FanDuel : Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and top 10/20 Russell Henley, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley

Golf.com also picks Denny McCarthy to win this week after just missing in a playoff last year to Viktor Hovland (-7) with Scottie Scheffler finishing T3, Si Wook Kim and Jordan Spieth (T4), Rory McIlroy and Adam Schenk (T7) and Matt Fitzpatrick, Adam Scott and Rickie Fowler finishing top-10. McCarthy is also the only top-1o finisher last year who also finished top 10 in the 2022 event at Muirfield Village when he was T5 behind winner Billy Horschel (-13). And Patrick Cantlay (-13) beat Collin Morikawa in a playoff to win the 2021 Memorial with Scheffler T3 and Shane Lowry, Max Homa, Si Woo Kim and Xander Schauffele all finishing top-11.

Many legends of the game have won the Jack Nicklaus-hosted Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village ... [+] Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio including 5-time winner Tiger Woods. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Update : World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has finished in 3rd place in the 2023 and 2021 Memorial Tournament. Lead Data Analyst and The Athletic contributor Justin Ray adds that Scheffler had one of the more incredible statistical weeks in modern golf history at the 2023 Memorial. Scottie gained 20.69 strokes on the field tee-to-green, the 2nd-highest total over 72 holes since the PGA Tour started tracking the statistic in 2003 (Vijay Singh gained 21.14 at the '04 Deutsche Bank).

Scheffler led the field in:

• Greens in regulation
• SG Off the Tee
• SG Approach
• Proximity to the hole
• SG Around the Green

But Scottie was dead last in the field in SG: Putting, which cost him the chance to win while finishing 1-shot behind winner Viktor Hovland.

Tournament Matchups

Additional golf betting odds and matchups from FanDuel and leading online sportsbooks are updated and adjusted througout the tournament along with props and live betting.

The last two weeks tournament matchups are 3-0 on these pages in the RBC Canadian Open and Charles Schwab Challenge .

Check back Tuesday and Wednesday as matchups are posted by sportsbooks and others added.

• Schauffele (-130) vs. McIlroy (+110)
• Scheffler (-200) vs. McIlroy (+160) - Bet McIlroy
• Matsuyama (-120) vs. Theegala (+100)
• Schauffele (-130) vs. Morikawa (+105) - Bet Schauffele
• Lowry (-110) vs. Horschel (-110)
• Hovland (-125) vs. J. Thomas (+105)
• Sungjae Im (-110) vs. Sam Burns
• Conners (-130) vs. Clark (-105)

How To Watch The Memorial Tournament

All times Eastern. Tournament June 6-9 (estimated times, to be finalized)

• Thursday-Friday: 2-6 p.m. (Golf Channel/Peacock)
• Saturday: 12: 30-2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel/Peacock), 2:30-6 (CBS)
• Sunday : 12:30-2:30 p.m. (GC), 2:30-7 (CBS)

Streaming coverage online available at PGA Tour Live on ESPN+, Peacock and Paramount+.

Thursday and Friday pairings and tee times .

Featured Groups

Thursday PGA Tour Live on ESPN+

(Marquee groups ** showcase every shot from each player in the group)

• 8:55 am Hole #1 : Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick
• 9:45 am Hole #1 : Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley
• 10:05 am Hole #1 : Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay **
• 10:20 am Hole #1 : Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland **
• 10:30 am Hole #1: Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Åberg
• 9:35 am Hole #1 : Rickie Fowler, Max Homa
• 9:45 am Hole #1: Jason Day, Justin Rose
• 9:55 am Hole #1 : Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas
• 10:05 am Hole #1: Brian Harman, Jordan Spieth **
• 10:20 am Hole #1: Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa **

Featured holes Par 3’s at No. 4, 12, 16 and Par 5 at No. 15

Odds To Win 2024 U.S. Open

Check out more golf news , picks and information you can bet on for the Memorial Tournament and weekly PGA Tour golf tournaments. Next week it’s the U.S. Open, where betting on golf’s most grueling test will be even more popular with fans firing for fairways and greens on their favorite players, props and picks.

You can bet on it.

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Memorial tournament picks, predictions, odds & best bets - who to back over scheffler, share this article.

The Memorial Tournament, considered by many as the “Fifth Major,” tees off on Thursday at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio. A modest field of just 73 golfers includes most of the world’s top golfers, including the top three in Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy, and we have assembled our best 2024 Memorial Tournament picks and expert predictions to help guide you.

The Memorial is considered a great tuneup for next week’s 2024 U.S. Open Championship, but more than holds its own as a big-time tournament. The winner takes home $4 million of the $20 million purse.  Scheffler is a massive favorite in the latest Memorial Tournament odds, at +360 to win. Schauffele and McIlroy are next on the board at +900.

Bookies.com veteran golf handicapper Adam Thompson has revealed his top Memorial Tournament picks, and we have included some of the top Memorial Tournament betting promos.

2024 Memorial Tournament Picks & Predictions | Best Memorial Tournament Bets

Xander schauffele to win (+900 at betmgm).

It’s important to get off the tee well on this course, but also be prepared to rebound if in the rough near the green. Nobody can match Schauffele’s success in both spots. He ranks No. 2 on the PGA Tour in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and in Scrambling. And he’s playing as well as anyone, including Scheffler, coming off a victory at the PGA Championship.

Scheffler is just as good in the key spots, but Xander’s price offers far more value on BetMGM, one of the best at golf betting sites . And if you sign up before making your Memorial Tournament picks with the BetMGM bonus code , you will get a first-bet offer worth up to $1,500.

Xander Schauffele Top-10 Finish (-115 at DraftKings)

In 12 tournaments in 2024, Schauffele has finished in the Top 10 a whopping 75% of the time. The three he didn’t may have been due to motivation at “lesser” tournaments. The PGA Championship, The Masters, The Players Championship, the Wells Fargo Championship – all solidly Top 10. This is easily one of our best 2024 Memorial Tournament picks.

Si Woo Kim Top-20 Finish (+140 at Caesars)

Kim hasn’t finished in the Top 10 of an event since the Players Championship in March. But he’s been in the Top 20 in five of his last eight events. This field is half the size of a typical PGA event and Kim is a great Tee-to-Green golfer. The odds on sports betting apps offer value for Kim, who has missed just one cut all year, to stick around and compete into Sunday.

Ludvig Aberg Top-10 Finish (+210 at DraftKings)

The Swede Aberg is just one year into his pro career, but he’s made a big splash on the PGA. He had four-straight Top-14 finishes before missing the cut at the PGA Championship. He can get back on track here on a Muirfield course that suits his strengths. Aberg ranks Top 15 in Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Tee and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Only Scheffler and Schauffele can also boast such a run. There is a lot of value in this Memorial Tournament pick.

Matchup: Alex Noren over Matt Fitzpatrick and Denny McCarthy (+165 at DraftKings)

Noren ranks No. 1 on the tour in Scrambling, a key measure of potential success at Muirfield. Four of the last five winners on the course ranked in the Top 5 of the stat that week. He’s also 11th in Tee-to-Green, another stat I’ve relied on here. Fitzpatrick doesn’t rank in the Top 80 in either, and McCarthy is 145th off the tee. If you are looking at making a matchup bet with your Memorial Tournament picks, look no further.

Memorial Tournament DFS Picks

$10,000 or higher.

Xander Schauffele ($10,900) will be the highest-priced golfer in most of my lineups. He checks all the boxes to compete for a win this weekend. So does Scheffler, but his $12,500 price tag is too tall. We also prefer Xander over Rory ($11,000).

$8,000-$9,999

Ludvig Aberg ($9,500) is ranked No. 6 in the World Golf Rankings and the sixth-priciest golfer this weekend. He has the game to match those expectations.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) checks most of the same boxes of Aberg, including his ability to smash the ball from the box, but rebound if he misses. We prefer him over Colin Morikawa ($9,800), especially with price in consideration.

Alex Noren ($8,100) is a modest 63rd in putting but this course isn’t as penalizing for OK-not-great putters. His strengths match up here. He could be that mid-level bargain.

$7,999-Under

Si Woo Kim ($7,700) has hit on 14 of 15 cuts and hits it straight off the tee. He’s been sabotaged by putting this year but Muirfield isn’t as unrelenting as other locales.

Stephan Jaeger ($7,100) finished 76th at the PGA Championship then withdrew from the Charles Schwab Challenge. But he is back here, took 24th last year in this event and has taken a consistent 18th-21st in three of his last four events.

Kurt Kitayama ($7,000) has been even more consistent. In the last six tournaments, Kitayama has made the cut in all of them and finished from 19th to 36th in them all. We’d absolutely take that from a bargain-basement spot in our Memorial Tournament DFS picks.

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Expert Picks: TOUR Championship

Expert Picks

WILMINGTON, DELAWARE - AUGUST 19: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays his shot from the seventh tee during the second round of the BMW Championship at Wilmington Country Club on August 19, 2022 in Wilmington, Delaware. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

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Aside from the experts below, Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at this year's TOUR Championship in this week's edition of the Power Rankings . For more fantasy, check out Rookie Ranking , Qualifiers and Reshuffle .

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Sports Betting

The Memorial 2024 expert picks, odds, sleepers: Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas among the best bets

The Memorial Tournament now sits before the U.S. Open and will act as a proper warmup for the difficult conditions the players will face at Pinehurst No. 2 next week.

As a signature event, the field will be limited to 73 golfers with the top 50 and ties including players within 10 shots making the cut. This is the last signature event of the season to feature a cut as the Travelers played the week after the U.S. Open will be a no-cut event. Last week’s winner, Robert MacIntyre, will sit this one out after an emotional win with his father on the bag at the Canadian Open.

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A few players in the field will be racking up airline miles as they have to make their way to U.S. Open qualifying tournaments between the RBC Canadian Open and this week’s tournament. Cam Davis beat Adam Scott in a two-for-one playoff to qualify for the U.S. Open which leaves Scott hoping he can remain at 60th in the world rankings after this week to keep his streak of competing in major championships.

Muirfield Village Golf Club is an ever-evolving test for modern PGA Tour professionals. Jack Nicklaus has experimented with the bunkers over the years and redid the greens four years ago. Many of the fairways tighten at the 320-yard point which means the big hitters have to be accurate if they want the best chance into greens. Even though the course is long shorter drivers of the golf ball have been able to compete here with Denny McCarthy’s two straight top-five finishes a perfect example.

My model will still weight strokes gained tee to green more heavily even if driving distance doesn’t pop from year to year. Strokes gained on golf courses that measure over 7,400 yards will factor in and score average on difficult Par 3s. Course history will have its place in my model.

Course information

Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin, Ohio

Designed by: Jack Nicklaus

Yardage: 7,569 yards

Average green size: 5,000 square feet

Features: The hardest set of Par 3s of any golf course on the PGA Tour. The greens are small for such a long course and that plays out as the average greens in regulation is well below a normal PGA Tour stop. The Par 3 16th hole, which had the highest scoring average of any par 3 on the PGA Tour in 2017, 2020 and 2023, has been updated with a new tee box that is 30 yards to the right of the original tee box and changes the angle of the green as well as how deep it looks. The bent grass greens run at 13 or more on the stimp meter. The primary rough is cut to four inches and will be a nice test for the players.

Odds are from  BetMGM  and update live. Buy tickets to see your  favorite team on StubHub .

Betting slip

Collin Morikawa +1400 comes into this week with his swing finally starting to click on all cylinders. After gaining over two strokes off the tee in every measured event since The Players Championship in May, he was finally able to get consistent with his irons at the PGA Championship and the Charles Schwab Challenge. He gained over seven strokes on approach combined in those two tournaments. He won here for the Workday Charity Open in 2020 and finished in second place at The Memorial in 2021. He was on fire gaining over five strokes on approach last year before having to WD when he tweaked his back.

Patrick Cantlay +2500 has not been good this season by any stretch of the imagination. Even with that he has two top four finishes in signature events. In 2023, the driver was a weapon for Cantlay as he regularly gained over two strokes on the field off the tee. He hasn’t gained over two strokes off the tee in any week since The Sentry in January. His hands have still been really good around the greens as he has gained 1.2 or more strokes around the green in five straight. It’s hard to imagine getting Cantlay at this number at a place where he has won twice and finished third in the last five years.

Justin Thomas +3000 has been really good since his missed cut at the Masters. He hasn’t played particularly well here over the years, but his game should suit this course. He has gained over 1.1 strokes off the tee in three straight events and he has gained over 8.5 strokes around the green in his last three tournaments combined. Thomas was a cold putter away from contending at the PGA Championship.

Sam Burns +5000 has gained over 1.1 strokes off the tee in three out of his last four tournaments. He looks to have figured out his irons in the last few weeks as he gained over 7.4 strokes on approach combined over his last 10 rounds. He finished T16 here gaining strokes across the board.

Tony Finau +6500 hasn’t lost more than .3 strokes on the greens to the field in three of his last four events and he has found himself in contention with three top 18 finishes in that time. He gained over 12 strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments and drove the ball particularly well at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He gained over 10 strokes combined in ball striking the last two times he played The Memorial.

Scottie Scheffler $12,500 only gained 2.8 strokes on approach at the Charles Schwab Challenge. It was the first time he didn’t gain more than three strokes on approach since  February. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since The American Express in January. He finished third here in his last two tries and I don’t see a reason you can’t afford him this week.

Xander Schauffele $10,900 has had some interesting quotes this week after winning the PGA Championship. His comments on what he was thinking as he played No. 18 on his way to his first major championship were some of the most honest I have seen from a major winner. He hasn’t finished better than 11th in his last six golf tournaments here despite gaining more than 4.5 strokes on approach in four out of his last five trips.  He’s gained over 25 strokes ball striking combined over his last two tournaments.

Collin Morikawa $9,800 See above.

Patrick Cantlay $9,400 See above.

Justin Thomas $9,200 See above.

Wyndham Clark $8,900 is in the middle of a downswing of his season. It’s tough to know if it has to do with the back injury he suffered at The Players Championship or not, but the statistics seem to support that. He hasn’t gained more than two strokes off the tee since the Houston Open and he hasn’t gained more than .5 strokes on approach in any tournament since his second-place finish at The Players Championship. He has lost strokes around the green in four out of his last five tournaments as well. If he bounces back this week it will be out of nowhere.

Max Homa $8,700 has struggled with his driver since the Masters. He has two straight top six finishes here and seems to like the new greens as he has gained over 10.5 strokes combined putting in his last two tournaments here. I’ll gamble on Homa figuring out his driver struggles and bouncing back from his missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Jordan Spieth $8,600 has gained 1.9 or more strokes off the tee in four straight tournaments. He hasn’t had a top 10 since the Texas Open because he struggled with his iron game and putter. The wrist injury could be the reason he is struggling with both and it’s tough to back him even with his nice course history here.

Byeong Hun An $8,400 loved to play at Muirfield Village early in his career as he had four straight top 25 finishes before he started to struggle in 2020. Once he regained his PGA Tour card he went right back to enjoying his golf at Muirfield Village as he gained over 7.3 strokes ball striking in 2023.

Sam Burns $8,300 See above.

Alex Noren $8,100 pops up in my model despite his missed cut last week. He has had an excellent season overall and has played well here before finishing T13 in 2021. I don’t love his price this week and that has me pausing before using him in some lineups.

Russell Henley $8,000 has gained over 11.5 strokes on approach combined over his last three tournaments. I think Henley may go overlooked in this price range. He has gained with his putter in seven of his last eight tournaments and has been excellent around the green as well.

Shane Lowry $7,900 bounced back from a bad first round at the RBC Canadian Open to make the cut and play well on the weekend. He was never going to gain over 9 strokes with his putter like he did at the PGA Championship, but he did gain slightly which was nice to see. He has gained more than 2.4 strokes on approach in five of his last six tournaments here.

Tony Finau $7,900 See above.

Tom Kim $7,800 finally gained strokes on approach at the Canadian Open. He gained over four strokes on the field on approach for the week. He gained more than five strokes combined around the green in his last two tournaments as well.

Keegan Bradley $7,700 has three straight top 21 finishes and has gained over 11 strokes combined off the tee in his last two tournaments. He has gained over three strokes on approach in four out of his last five tournaments. He really likes the new greens here as he has gained over 8.6 strokes putting the last two years.

Si Woo Kim $7,700 has struggled with the putter lately losing over 12 strokes combined over his last three tournaments. He has four straight top 18 finishes here and he has gained with his putter in three out of his last four trips here.

Will Zalatoris $7,500 hasn’t been as good since the Masters. I like that he gained more than 3.5 strokes on approach at the PGA Championship, but he has lost over six strokes combined around the green in his last three tournaments. I’m not fading him with his upside, but I would be careful of rostering him too much.

Billy Horschel $7,400 comes into the week in good form as he has gained strokes around the green in six of his last measured events. He won in Puntacana and finished T8 at the PGA Championship. He won here in 2022 and has five other top-15 finishes.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,300 missed the cut at the PGA Championship but has played well here with three straight top 40 finishes. His short game sets him apart in this price range.

Low-priced options

Taylor Pendrith $6,700

Austin Eckroat $6,700

Adam Svensson $6,600

Lee Hodges $6,500

One and Done

Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Reference  this spreadsheet  tracking who we have used.

• Hugh Kellenberger: $7,250,018.63
• Brody Miller: $6,862,921.16
• Dennis Esser: $2,534,966

Esser: The next three weeks are make or break for many one-and-done players as we have a major championship sandwiched between two signature events. Collin Morikawa comes into this week in the best form he has shown all year and he gets to tee it up at a place where he has played well over the years.

Miller: The hard part is it’s a signature event and I don’t have any great options left of the top stars. Collin is off the table. Hovland still cannot be trusted yet. Driving the ball is so crucial that it feels like the perfect Ludvig Aberg week, but he played poorly at Valhalla with the bad knee. Screw it. Life is too short. Give me Ludvig to get his first big boy when at Muirfield Village!

Kellenberger: I’ll go with Wyndham Clark , who performed very well at this tournament a year ago and has been lurking in the weeds for the last little while. Muirfield Village is a good place for him to pounce.

(Photo of Justin Thomas: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

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Dennis Esser is a contributor to The Athletic, covering golf through the lens of sports betting and fantasy sports. A resident of New Jersey, Dennis' writing has appeared in numerous fantasy and betting outlets.

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2024 U.S. Open picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions from proven PGA golf model that has hit 12 majors

Sportsline's proven model simulated the u.s. open 2024 10,000 times and revealed its surprising pga tour golf picks.

Rory McIlroy hasn't won a major since 2014, but he's come close. The 26-time PGA Tour winner has finished second in three of his last 20 majors since taking home the Open Championship in 2014. McIlroy finished second at last year's U.S. Open, one shot behind Wyndham Clark, for his fourth straight top-10 showing at the U.S. Open. Does this mean you should include the four-time major winner in your 2024 U.S. Open picks? McIlroy is 9-1 in the 2024 U.S. Open odds. He has the second-shortest odds in the 2024 U.S. Open field despite going winless over his last 20 major events, so is there value in playing him to win the U.S. Open 2024?

The 2024 U.S. Open tees off from Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina beginning on Thursday, June 13 and Scottie Scheffler is the 4-1 favorite. Should you bet one of the favorites or could there be a longshot among the 2024 U.S. Open golfers like Max Homa (30-1) or Jordan Spieth (35-1) to include in your 2024 U.S. Open prediction? Before locking in any 2024 U.S. Open picks of your own, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, or finalizing U.S. Open props and U.S. Open Pick 6 or PrizePicks entries, be sure to see the 2024 U.S. Open golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now with the U.S. Open 2024 approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

Top 2024 U.S. Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 U.S. Open: Brooks Koepka (12-1), a two-time U.S. Open champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10. Koepka has five major championships overall but he hasn't been much of a factor in major tournaments since that last victory at the 2023 PGA Championship. In his four majors since then, his best finish is tying for 17th at last year's U.S. Open. Koepka has finished outside the top 25 in each of his last three major starts, which is one shy of tying a career-long drought.

He's finished outside the top 15 in four straight appearances at majors and has struggled overall this season. Over his last eight tournament starts, he has twice as many finishes outside the top 25 (four) as he has inside the top 10 (two). Add in that he shot over par in his lone previous start at Pinehurst No. 2, and there are much better values to utilize U.S. Open 2024 bets on.  See who else to fade here .

Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 33-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win than his long odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Thomas has recorded seven top-25 finishes in his first 11 events of the season, including a T8 in the PGA Championship, T5 in the RBC Heritage and T6 in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Thomas ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in both strokes gained: approach to green and birdie average, making him a dangerous player when he gets on a roll. Thomas is a two-time major champion who has a pair of top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open during his career. His recent form and experience winning majors make him an appealing longshot wager for the 2024 U.S. Open, according to the model.  See who else to back here .

How to make 2024 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship .

2024 U.S. Open odds, field

Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets, and predictions here

Scottie Scheffler 4-1 Rory McIlroy 9-1 Xander Schauffele 10-1 Brooks Koepka 12-1 Jon Rahm 12-1 Ludvig Aberg 14-1 Viktor Hovland 18-1 Collin Morikawa 18-1 Bryson DeChambeau 20-1 Patrick Cantlay 22-1 Wyndham Clark 22-1 Joaquin Niemann 25-1 Cameron Smith 25-1 Max Homa 30-1 Justin Thomas 33-1 Cameron Young 35-1 Dustin Johnson 35-1 Jordan Spieth 35-1 Hideki Matsuyama 35-1 Shane Lowry 40-1 Sahith Theegala 40-1 Tom Kim 40-1 Tony Finau 40-1 Sungjae Im 40-1 Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1 Jason Day 45-1 Tommy Fleetwood 50-1 Min Woo Lee 50-1 Tyrrell Hatton 50-1 Brian Harman 55-1 Corey Conners 60-1 Sam Burns 60-1 Patrick Reed 60-1 Si Woo Kim 65-1 Justin Rose 65-1 Sepp Straka 70-1 Louis Oosthuizen 75-1 Abraham Ancer 75-1 Rickie Fowler 75-1 Adam Scott 75-1 Talor Gooch 75-1 Russell Henley 90-1 Daniel Berger 100-1 Keegan Bradley 100-1 Keith Mitchell 125-1 Ryan Fox 125-1 J.T. Poston 125-1 Billy Horschel 125-1 Tiger Woods 125-1 Sergio Garcia 125-1 Thomas Pieters 150-1 Kurt Kitayama 150-1 Phil Mickelson 150-1 Mito Pereira 150-1 Denny McCarthy 150-1 Harris English 150-1 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150-1 Adam Schenk 175-1 Emiliano Grillo 175-1 Austin Eckroat 175-1 Robert MacIntyre 175-1 Marc Leishman 175-1 Adam Hadwin 175-1 Lucas Glover 200-1 Nick Taylor 200-1 Davis Riley 200-1 Mackenzie Hughes 200-1 Jason Kokrak 200-1 Harold Varner III 225-1 Seamus Power 225-1 Taylor Moore 250-1 Ben Kohles 250-1 Gary Woodland 250-1 Aaron Wise 250-1 Francisco Molinari 350-1 Joel Dahmen 350-1 Martin Kaymer 500-1 Bernhard Langer 750-1

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