fragile tourism industry

Towards resilience and sustainability: Travel and tourism development recovery

The travel and tourism sector is slowly beginning to recover. Image:  Unsplash/Eva Darron

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• The World Economic Forum has published its inaugural Travel and Tourism Development Index .
• It focuses on the growing role of sustainability and resilience in travel and tourism growth.
• Recovery for the sector is uneven and tourist arrivals in January 2022 were still 67% below 2019 levels, according to the World Tourism Organization.
• Here are some key findings from the index on how the sector can build back better.

In 2018, international tourism grew for the ninth consecutive year. Tourist arrivals reached 1.4 billion and generated $1.7 trillion in export earnings, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

Travel and tourism: post-pandemic

The picture looked very different two years later, as COVID-19 lockdowns hit the travel and tourism (T&T) sector hard. In 2020 alone, it faced losses of $4.5 trillion and 62 million jobs , impacting the living standards and well-being of communities across the globe.

While the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines and easing of restrictions means a recovery has now started, it’s proving gradual and uneven largely due to variations in vaccine distribution, and because of Omicron and its BA.2 subvariant. And customers are not only being more cautious when it comes to health, but also around the impact of travel on the environment and local communities.

International tourist arrivals rose by 18 million in January 2022 compared with a year earlier. This equals the increase for the whole of 2021 from 2020, but January’s numbers were still 67% below the same month in 2019, according to the UNWTO.

The war in Ukraine has added to instability and economic disruption for the sector. Against this backdrop, the World Economic Forum’s inaugural Travel and Tourism Development Index reflects the growing role of sustainability and resilience in T&T growth, as well as the sector’s role in economic and social development more broadly.

The TTDI benchmarks and measures “the set of factors and policies that enable the sustainable and resilient development of the T&T sector, which in turn contributes to the development of a country”. The TTDI is a direct evolution of the long-running Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), with the change reflecting the index’s increased coverage of T&T development concepts, including sustainability and resilience impact on T&T growth and is designed to highlight the sector’s role in broader economic and social development as well as the need for T&T stakeholder collaboration to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, bolster the recovery and deal with future challenges and risks. Some of the most notable framework and methodology differences between the TTCI and TTDI include the additions of new pillars, including Non-Leisure Resources, Socioeconomic Resilience and Conditions, and T&T Demand Pressure and Impact. Please see the Technical notes and methodology. section to learn more about the index and the differences between the TTCI and TTDI.

The Travel and Tourism Development Index 2021

The index covers 117 economies, which accounted for around 96% of the world’s direct T&T GDP in 2020. It measures the factors and policies that will enable sustainable and resilient development of the sector.

These include everything from business, safety and health conditions, to infrastructure and natural resources, environmental, socioeconomic and demand pressures.

“As the sector slowly recovers, it will be crucial that lessons are learned from recent and current crises and that steps are taken to embed long-term inclusivity, sustainability and resilience into the travel and tourism sector as it faces evolving challenges and risks,” says the publication, a collaboration between many of the sector’s stakeholders.

The index consists of five subindexes, 17 pillars and 112 individual indicators, distributed among the different pillars, as shown below.

On average, scores increased by just 0.1% between 2019 and 2021, reflecting the difficult situation facing the sector. Only 39 out of 117 economies covered by the index improved by more than 1.0%, while 27 declined by over 1.0%.

Nine of the top 10 scoring countries are high-income economies in Europe or Asia-Pacific. Japan tops the ranking, with the United States in second, followed by Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Australia, the United Kingdom and Singapore. Italy completes the top 10, moving up from 12th in 2019.

Viet Nam experienced the greatest improvement in score, with a rise of 4.7% lifting it from 60th to 52nd on the overall index. Indonesia achieved the greatest improvement in rank, increasing its score by 3.4% to climb from 44th to 32nd, while Saudi Arabia achieved the second greatest improvement in rank, moving up to 33rd from 43rd as its score rose by 2.3%.

Rebuilding travel and tourism for a sustainable and resilient future

Here are some of the key findings from the publication:

1. The need for travel and tourism development has never been greater

The sector is a major driver of economic development, global connectivity and the livelihood of some of the populations and businesses most vulnerable to, and hard hit by, the pandemic. In 2019, T&T’s direct, indirect and induced GDP accounted for about 10% of global GDP . For many emerging economies, T&T is a major source of export revenue, foreign exchange earnings and investment. Research has shown that T&T growth can support social progress and create opportunities and well-being for communities, so supporting travel and tourism development and recovery will be critical.

2. Shifting demand dynamics have created opportunities and a need for adaptation

In the shorter term, challenges such as reduced capacity, geopolitical tensions and labour shortages are slowing recovery. However, opportunities have been created in markets such as domestic and nature-based tourism, the rise of digital nomads and “bleisure” travel – the addition of leisure activities to business travel. Many countries have provided incentives to boost domestic tourism. For example, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong SAR, China, have rolled out programmes that provide discounts, coupons and subsidies for domestic travel. The trends towards more rural and nature-based tourism offer an opportunity for less-developed economies to harness the benefits of travel and tourism given that the distribution and quality of natural assets are less tied to performance in economic development, with natural resources being one of the few pillars where non-high income economies typically outperform high-income countries. The travel and tourism sector stakeholders’ ability to adapt under these conditions highlights its capacity for adaptation and flexibility.

3. Development strategies can be employed to help the sector build back better

Amid the current challenges, shifting demand dynamics and future opportunities and risks, a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient travel and tourism sector can be – and needs to be – built, says the publication. But this calls for thoughtful and effective consideration. It also requires leveraging development drivers and strategies. This can be done by: restoring and accelerating international openness and consumer confidence through, for example, improved health and security; building favourable and inclusive labour, business and socioeconomic conditions; focusing more on environmental sustainability; strengthening the management of tourism demand and impact; and investing in digital technology.

A note on the methodology

Most of the dataset for the Travel & Tourism Development Index (TTDI) is statistical data from international organizations, with the remainder based on survey data from the World Economic Forum’s annual Executive Opinion Survey, which is used to measure concepts that are qualitative in nature or for which internationally comparable statistics are not available for enough countries. The index is an update of the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), but due to the altered methodology, framework and other differences, the 2021 TTDI should not be compared to the 2019 TTCI. To help address this, the 2019 results were recalculated using the new framework, methodology and indicators of the TTDI. Therefore, all comparisons in score and rank throughout this report are between the 2019 results and the 2021 results of the TTDI. Data for the TTDI 2021 was collected before the war in Ukraine.

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Global Tourism Sees Upturn in Q3 but Recovery Remains Fragile

• All Regions
• 28 Nov 2021

After a weak first half of 2021, international tourism rebounded during the Northern Hemisphere summer season, boosting results for the third quarter of the year, especially in Europe.

According to the newest edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) increased by 58% in July-September 2021 compared to the same period of 2020. However, they remained 64% below 2019 levels. Europe recorded the best relative performance in the third quarter, with international arrivals 53% down on the same three-month period of 2019. In August and September arrivals were at -63% compared to 2019, the best monthly results since the start of the pandemic.

Between January and September 2021, worldwide international tourist arrivals stood at -20% compared to 2020 , a clear improvement over the first six months of the year (-54%). In some sub regions – Southern and Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean, North and Central America – arrivals actually rose above 2020 levels in the first nine months of 2021. Some islands in the Caribbean and South Asia, together with a few small destinations in Southern and Mediterranean Europe saw their best performance in Q3 2021 according to available data, with arrivals coming close to, or sometimes exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

We cannot let our guard down and need to continue our efforts to ensure equal access to vaccinations, coordinate travel procedures, make use of digital vaccination certificates to facilitate mobility and continue to support the sector

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “Data for the third quarter of 2021 is encouraging. However, arrivals are still 76% below pre-pandemic levels and results across the different global regions remain uneven.” In light of the rising cases and the emergence of new variants, he added that “we cannot let our guard down and need to continue our efforts to ensure equal access to vaccinations,  coordinate travel procedures, make use of digital vaccination certificates to facilitate mobility and continue to support the sector.”

The uplift in demand was driven by increased traveler confidence amid rapid progress on vaccinations and the easing of entry restrictions in many destinations. In Europe, the EU Digital Covid Certificate has helped facilitate free movement within the European Union, releasing significant pent-up demand after many months of restricted travel. Arrivals in January-September 2021 were only 8% below the same period of 2020 yet still 69% below 2019. The Americas recorded the strongest inbound results in January-September, with arrivals up 1% compared to 2020 but still 65% below 2019 levels. The Caribbean recorded the strongest results by subregion with arrivals up 55% compared to the same period in 2020, though still 38% below 2019.

Slow and uneven pace of recovery

Despite the improvement seen in the third quarter of the year, the pace of recovery remains slow and uneven across world regions. This is due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveler confidence. While Europe (-53%) and the Americas (-60%) enjoyed a relative improvement during the third quarter of 2021, arrivals in Asia and the Pacific were down 95% compared to 2019 as many destinations remained closed to non-essential travel. Africa and the Middle East recorded 74% and 81% drops respectively in the third quarter compared to 2019. Among the larger destinations, Croatia (-19%), Mexico (-20%) and Turkey (-35%) posted the best results in July-September 2021, according to information currently available.

Gradual improvement in receipts and expenditure

Data on international tourism receipts show a similar improvement in Q3 of 2021. Mexico recorded the same earnings as in 2019, while Turkey (-20%), France (-27%) and Germany (-37%) posted comparatively smaller declines from earlier in the year. In outbound travel, results were also moderately better, with France and Germany reporting -28% and -33% respectively in international tourism expenditure during the third quarter.

On the upside, tourism spending per trip has increased significantly due to large savings and pent-up demand, softening the blow to economies. International receipts rose from an average of US$ 1,000 per arrival in 2019 to US$ 1,300 in 2020 and could exceed US$ 1,500 in 2021. However, higher spending is also the result of longer stays, rising transport and accommodation prices.

Looking ahead

Despite recent improvements, uneven vaccination rates around the world and new Covid-19 strains could impact the already slow and fragile recovery. The economic strain caused by the pandemic could also weigh on travel demand, aggravated by the recent spike in oil prices and disruption of supply chains. According to the latest UNWTO data, international tourist arrivals are expected to remain 70% to 75% below 2019 levels in 2021, a similar decline as in 2020.

Revenues from international tourism could reach US$ 700-800 billion in 2021, a small improvement from 2020 but less than half the US$ 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. The economic contribution of tourism is estimated at US$ 1.9 trillion in 2021 (measured in tourism direct gross domestic product) well below the pre-pandemic value of US$ 3.5 trillion.

The safe resumption of international tourism will continue to depend largely on a coordinated response among countries in terms of travel restrictions, harmonized safety and hygiene protocols and effective communication to help restore consumer confidence. This is particularly critical at a moment when cases are surging in some regions and new Covid-19 variants are emerging in different parts of the world.

Related links

• Download the news release in PDF
• Report: The Economic Contribution of Tourism and the Impact of COVID-19
• General Assembly - Twenty-fourth session
• New COVID-19 Surges Keep Travel Restrictions in Place
• EXCERPT: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Volume 19, issue 6, November 2021
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Volume 19, issue 6, November 2021
• UNWTO Tourism Data Dashboard

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The future of tourism: Bridging the labor gap, enhancing customer experience

As travel resumes and builds momentum, it’s becoming clear that tourism is resilient—there is an enduring desire to travel. Against all odds, international tourism rebounded in 2022: visitor numbers to Europe and the Middle East climbed to around 80 percent of 2019 levels, and the Americas recovered about 65 percent of prepandemic visitors 1 “Tourism set to return to pre-pandemic levels in some regions in 2023,” United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), January 17, 2023. —a number made more significant because it was reached without travelers from China, which had the world’s largest outbound travel market before the pandemic. 2 “ Outlook for China tourism 2023: Light at the end of the tunnel ,” McKinsey, May 9, 2023.

Recovery and growth are likely to continue. According to estimates from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) for 2023, international tourist arrivals could reach 80 to 95 percent of prepandemic levels depending on the extent of the economic slowdown, travel recovery in Asia–Pacific, and geopolitical tensions, among other factors. 3 “Tourism set to return to pre-pandemic levels in some regions in 2023,” United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), January 17, 2023. Similarly, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts that by the end of 2023, nearly half of the 185 countries in which the organization conducts research will have either recovered to prepandemic levels or be within 95 percent of full recovery. 4 “Global travel and tourism catapults into 2023 says WTTC,” World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), April 26, 2023.

Longer-term forecasts also point to optimism for the decade ahead. Travel and tourism GDP is predicted to grow, on average, at 5.8 percent a year between 2022 and 2032, outpacing the growth of the overall economy at an expected 2.7 percent a year. 5 Travel & Tourism economic impact 2022 , WTTC, August 2022.

So, is it all systems go for travel and tourism? Not really. The industry continues to face a prolonged and widespread labor shortage. After losing 62 million travel and tourism jobs in 2020, labor supply and demand remain out of balance. 6 “WTTC research reveals Travel & Tourism’s slow recovery is hitting jobs and growth worldwide,” World Travel & Tourism Council, October 6, 2021. Today, in the European Union, 11 percent of tourism jobs are likely to go unfilled; in the United States, that figure is 7 percent. 7 Travel & Tourism economic impact 2022 : Staff shortages, WTTC, August 2022.

There has been an exodus of tourism staff, particularly from customer-facing roles, to other sectors, and there is no sign that the industry will be able to bring all these people back. 8 Travel & Tourism economic impact 2022 : Staff shortages, WTTC, August 2022. Hotels, restaurants, cruises, airports, and airlines face staff shortages that can translate into operational, reputational, and financial difficulties. If unaddressed, these shortages may constrain the industry’s growth trajectory.

The current labor shortage may have its roots in factors related to the nature of work in the industry. Chronic workplace challenges, coupled with the effects of COVID-19, have culminated in an industry struggling to rebuild its workforce. Generally, tourism-related jobs are largely informal, partly due to high seasonality and weak regulation. And conditions such as excessively long working hours, low wages, a high turnover rate, and a lack of social protection tend to be most pronounced in an informal economy. Additionally, shift work, night work, and temporary or part-time employment are common in tourism.

The industry may need to revisit some fundamentals to build a far more sustainable future: either make the industry more attractive to talent (and put conditions in place to retain staff for longer periods) or improve products, services, and processes so that they complement existing staffing needs or solve existing pain points.

One solution could be to build a workforce with the mix of digital and interpersonal skills needed to keep up with travelers’ fast-changing requirements. The industry could make the most of available technology to provide customers with a digitally enhanced experience, resolve staff shortages, and improve working conditions.

Would you like to learn more about our Travel, Logistics & Infrastructure Practice ?

Complementing concierges with chatbots.

The pace of technological change has redefined customer expectations. Technology-driven services are often at customers’ fingertips, with no queues or waiting times. By contrast, the airport and airline disruption widely reported in the press over the summer of 2022 points to customers not receiving this same level of digital innovation when traveling.

Imagine the following travel experience: it’s 2035 and you start your long-awaited honeymoon to a tropical island. A virtual tour operator and a destination travel specialist booked your trip for you; you connected via videoconference to make your plans. Your itinerary was chosen with the support of generative AI , which analyzed your preferences, recommended personalized travel packages, and made real-time adjustments based on your feedback.

Before leaving home, you check in online and QR code your luggage. You travel to the airport by self-driving cab. After dropping off your luggage at the self-service counter, you pass through security and the biometric check. You access the premier lounge with the QR code on the airline’s loyalty card and help yourself to a glass of wine and a sandwich. After your flight, a prebooked, self-driving cab takes you to the resort. No need to check in—that was completed online ahead of time (including picking your room and making sure that the hotel’s virtual concierge arranged for red roses and a bottle of champagne to be delivered).

While your luggage is brought to the room by a baggage robot, your personal digital concierge presents the honeymoon itinerary with all the requested bookings. For the romantic dinner on the first night, you order your food via the restaurant app on the table and settle the bill likewise. So far, you’ve had very little human interaction. But at dinner, the sommelier chats with you in person about the wine. The next day, your sightseeing is made easier by the hotel app and digital guide—and you don’t get lost! With the aid of holographic technology, the virtual tour guide brings historical figures to life and takes your sightseeing experience to a whole new level. Then, as arranged, a local citizen meets you and takes you to their home to enjoy a local family dinner. The trip is seamless, there are no holdups or snags.

This scenario features less human interaction than a traditional trip—but it flows smoothly due to the underlying technology. The human interactions that do take place are authentic, meaningful, and add a special touch to the experience. This may be a far-fetched example, but the essence of the scenario is clear: use technology to ease typical travel pain points such as queues, misunderstandings, or misinformation, and elevate the quality of human interaction.

Travel with less human interaction may be considered a disruptive idea, as many travelers rely on and enjoy the human connection, the “service with a smile.” This will always be the case, but perhaps the time is right to think about bringing a digital experience into the mix. The industry may not need to depend exclusively on human beings to serve its customers. Perhaps the future of travel is  physical, but digitally enhanced (and with a smile!).

Digital solutions are on the rise and can help bridge the labor gap

Digital innovation is improving customer experience across multiple industries. Car-sharing apps have overcome service-counter waiting times and endless paperwork that travelers traditionally had to cope with when renting a car. The same applies to time-consuming hotel check-in, check-out, and payment processes that can annoy weary customers. These pain points can be removed. For instance, in China, the Huazhu Hotels Group installed self-check-in kiosks that enable guests to check in or out in under 30 seconds. 9 “Huazhu Group targets lifestyle market opportunities,” ChinaTravelNews, May 27, 2021.

Technology meets hospitality

In 2019, Alibaba opened its FlyZoo Hotel in Huangzhou, described as a “290-room ultra-modern boutique, where technology meets hospitality.” 1 “Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba has a hotel run almost entirely by robots that can serve food and fetch toiletries—take a look inside,” Business Insider, October 21, 2019; “FlyZoo Hotel: The hotel of the future or just more technology hype?,” Hotel Technology News, March 2019. The hotel was the first of its kind that instead of relying on traditional check-in and key card processes, allowed guests to manage reservations and make payments entirely from a mobile app, to check-in using self-service kiosks, and enter their rooms using facial-recognition technology.

The hotel is run almost entirely by robots that serve food and fetch toiletries and other sundries as needed. Each guest room has a voice-activated smart assistant to help guests with a variety of tasks, from adjusting the temperature, lights, curtains, and the TV to playing music and answering simple questions about the hotel and surroundings.

The hotel was developed by the company’s online travel platform, Fliggy, in tandem with Alibaba’s AI Labs and Alibaba Cloud technology with the goal of “leveraging cutting-edge tech to help transform the hospitality industry, one that keeps the sector current with the digital era we’re living in,” according to the company.

Adoption of some digitally enhanced services was accelerated during the pandemic in the quest for safer, contactless solutions. During the Winter Olympics in Beijing, a restaurant designed to keep physical contact to a minimum used a track system on the ceiling to deliver meals directly from the kitchen to the table. 10 “This Beijing Winter Games restaurant uses ceiling-based tracks,” Trendhunter, January 26, 2022. Customers around the world have become familiar with restaurants using apps to display menus, take orders, and accept payment, as well as hotels using robots to deliver luggage and room service (see sidebar “Technology meets hospitality”). Similarly, theme parks, cinemas, stadiums, and concert halls are deploying digital solutions such as facial recognition to optimize entrance control. Shanghai Disneyland, for example, offers annual pass holders the option to choose facial recognition to facilitate park entry. 11 “Facial recognition park entry,” Shanghai Disney Resort website.

Automation and digitization can also free up staff from attending to repetitive functions that could be handled more efficiently via an app and instead reserve the human touch for roles where staff can add the most value. For instance, technology can help customer-facing staff to provide a more personalized service. By accessing data analytics, frontline staff can have guests’ details and preferences at their fingertips. A trainee can become an experienced concierge in a short time, with the help of technology.

Apps and in-room tech: Unused market potential

According to Skift Research calculations, total revenue generated by guest apps and in-room technology in 2019 was approximately $293 million, including proprietary apps by hotel brands as well as third-party vendors. 1 “Hotel tech benchmark: Guest-facing technology 2022,” Skift Research, November 2022. The relatively low market penetration rate of this kind of tech points to around $2.4 billion in untapped revenue potential (exhibit).

Even though guest-facing technology is available—the kind that can facilitate contactless interactions and offer travelers convenience and personalized service—the industry is only beginning to explore its potential. A report by Skift Research shows that the hotel industry, in particular, has not tapped into tech’s potential. Only 11 percent of hotels and 25 percent of hotel rooms worldwide are supported by a hotel app or use in-room technology, and only 3 percent of hotels offer keyless entry. 12 “Hotel tech benchmark: Guest-facing technology 2022,” Skift Research, November 2022. Of the five types of technology examined (guest apps and in-room tech; virtual concierge; guest messaging and chatbots; digital check-in and kiosks; and keyless entry), all have relatively low market-penetration rates (see sidebar “Apps and in-room tech: Unused market potential”).

While apps, digitization, and new technology may be the answer to offering better customer experience, there is also the possibility that tourism may face competition from technological advances, particularly virtual experiences. Museums, attractions, and historical sites can be made interactive and, in some cases, more lifelike, through AR/VR technology that can enhance the physical travel experience by reconstructing historical places or events.

Up until now, tourism, arguably, was one of a few sectors that could not easily be replaced by tech. It was not possible to replicate the physical experience of traveling to another place. With the emerging metaverse , this might change. Travelers could potentially enjoy an event or experience from their sofa without any logistical snags, and without the commitment to traveling to another country for any length of time. For example, Google offers virtual tours of the Pyramids of Meroë in Sudan via an immersive online experience available in a range of languages. 13 Mariam Khaled Dabboussi, “Step into the Meroë pyramids with Google,” Google, May 17, 2022. And a crypto banking group, The BCB Group, has created a metaverse city that includes representations of some of the most visited destinations in the world, such as the Great Wall of China and the Statue of Liberty. According to BCB, the total cost of flights, transfers, and entry for all these landmarks would come to $7,600—while a virtual trip would cost just over $2. 14 “What impact can the Metaverse have on the travel industry?,” Middle East Economy, July 29, 2022.

The metaverse holds potential for business travel, too—the meeting, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) sector in particular. Participants could take part in activities in the same immersive space while connecting from anywhere, dramatically reducing travel, venue, catering, and other costs. 15 “ Tourism in the metaverse: Can travel go virtual? ,” McKinsey, May 4, 2023.

The allure and convenience of such digital experiences make offering seamless, customer-centric travel and tourism in the real world all the more pressing.

Three innovations to solve hotel staffing shortages

Is the future contactless.

Given the advances in technology, and the many digital innovations and applications that already exist, there is potential for businesses across the travel and tourism spectrum to cope with labor shortages while improving customer experience. Process automation and digitization can also add to process efficiency. Taken together, a combination of outsourcing, remote work, and digital solutions can help to retain existing staff and reduce dependency on roles that employers are struggling to fill (exhibit).

Depending on the customer service approach and direct contact need, we estimate that the travel and tourism industry would be able to cope with a structural labor shortage of around 10 to 15 percent in the long run by operating more flexibly and increasing digital and automated efficiency—while offering the remaining staff an improved total work package.

Outsourcing and remote work could also help resolve the labor shortage

While COVID-19 pushed organizations in a wide variety of sectors to embrace remote work, there are many hospitality roles that rely on direct physical services that cannot be performed remotely, such as laundry, cleaning, maintenance, and facility management. If faced with staff shortages, these roles could be outsourced to third-party professional service providers, and existing staff could be reskilled to take up new positions.

In McKinsey’s experience, the total service cost of this type of work in a typical hotel can make up 10 percent of total operating costs. Most often, these roles are not guest facing. A professional and digital-based solution might become an integrated part of a third-party service for hotels looking to outsource this type of work.

One of the lessons learned in the aftermath of COVID-19 is that many tourism employees moved to similar positions in other sectors because they were disillusioned by working conditions in the industry . Specialist multisector companies have been able to shuffle their staff away from tourism to other sectors that offer steady employment or more regular working hours compared with the long hours and seasonal nature of work in tourism.

The remaining travel and tourism staff may be looking for more flexibility or the option to work from home. This can be an effective solution for retaining employees. For example, a travel agent with specific destination expertise could work from home or be consulted on an needs basis.

In instances where remote work or outsourcing is not viable, there are other solutions that the hospitality industry can explore to improve operational effectiveness as well as employee satisfaction. A more agile staffing model  can better match available labor with peaks and troughs in daily, or even hourly, demand. This could involve combining similar roles or cross-training staff so that they can switch roles. Redesigned roles could potentially improve employee satisfaction by empowering staff to explore new career paths within the hotel’s operations. Combined roles build skills across disciplines—for example, supporting a housekeeper to train and become proficient in other maintenance areas, or a front-desk associate to build managerial skills.

Where management or ownership is shared across properties, roles could be staffed to cover a network of sites, rather than individual hotels. By applying a combination of these approaches, hotels could reduce the number of staff hours needed to keep operations running at the same standard. 16 “ Three innovations to solve hotel staffing shortages ,” McKinsey, April 3, 2023.

Taken together, operational adjustments combined with greater use of technology could provide the tourism industry with a way of overcoming staffing challenges and giving customers the seamless digitally enhanced experiences they expect in other aspects of daily life.

In an industry facing a labor shortage, there are opportunities for tech innovations that can help travel and tourism businesses do more with less, while ensuring that remaining staff are engaged and motivated to stay in the industry. For travelers, this could mean fewer friendly faces, but more meaningful experiences and interactions.

Urs Binggeli is a senior expert in McKinsey’s Zurich office, Zi Chen is a capabilities and insights specialist in the Shanghai office, Steffen Köpke is a capabilities and insights expert in the Düsseldorf office, and Jackey Yu is a partner in the Hong Kong office.

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The COVID-19 travel shock hit tourism-dependent economies hard

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Gian maria milesi-ferretti gian maria milesi-ferretti senior fellow - economic studies , the hutchins center on fiscal and monetary policy.

August 12, 2021

The COVID crisis has led to a collapse in international travel. According to the World Tourism Organization , international tourist arrivals declined globally by 73 percent in 2020, with 1 billion fewer travelers compared to 2019, putting in jeopardy between 100 and 120 million direct tourism jobs. This has led to massive losses in international revenues for tourism-dependent economies: specifically, a collapse in exports of travel services (money spent by nonresident visitors in a country) and a decline in exports of transport services (such as airline revenues from tickets sold to nonresidents).

This “travel shock” is continuing in 2021, as restrictions to international travel persist—tourist arrivals for January-May 2021 are down a further 65 percent from the same period in 2020, and there is substantial uncertainty on the nature and timing of a tourism recovery.

We study the economic impact of the international travel shock during 2020, particularly the severity of the hit to countries very dependent on tourism. Our main result is that on a cross-country basis, the share of tourism activities in GDP is the single most important predictor of the growth shortfall in 2020 triggered by the COVID-19 crisis (relative to pre-pandemic IMF forecasts), even when compared to measures of the severity of the pandemic. For instance, Grenada and Macao had very few recorded COVID cases in relation to their population size and no COVID-related deaths in 2020—yet their GDP contracted by 13 percent and 56 percent, respectively.

International tourism destinations and tourism sources

Countries that rely heavily on tourism, and in particular international travelers, tend to be small, have GDP per capita in the middle-income and high-income range, and are preponderately net debtors. Many are small island economies—Jamaica and St. Lucia in the Caribbean, Cyprus and Malta in the Mediterranean, the Maldives and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean, or Fiji and Samoa in the Pacific. Prior to the COVID pandemic, median annual net revenues from international tourism (spending by foreign tourists in the country minus tourism spending by domestic residents overseas) in these island economies were about one quarter of GDP, with peaks around 50 percent of GDP, such as Aruba and the Maldives.

But there are larger economies heavily reliant on international tourism. For instance, in Croatia average net international tourism revenues from 2015-2019 exceeded 15 percent of GDP, 8 percent in the Dominican Republic and Thailand, 7 percent in Greece, and 5 percent in Portugal. The most extreme example is Macao, where net revenues from international travel and tourism were around 68 percent of GDP during 2015-19. Even in dollar terms, Macao’s net revenues from tourism were the fourth highest in the world, after the U.S., Spain, and Thailand.

In contrast, for countries that are net importers of travel and tourism services—that is, countries whose residents travel widely abroad relative to foreign travelers visiting the country—the importance of such spending is generally much smaller as a share of GDP. In absolute terms, the largest importer of travel services is China (over $200 billion, or 1.7 percent of GDP on average during 2015-19), followed by Germany and Russia. The GDP impact for these economies of a sharp reduction in tourism outlays overseas is hence relatively contained, but it can have very large implications on the smaller economies their tourists travel to—a prime example being Macao for Chinese travelers.

How did tourism-dependent economies cope with the disappearance of a large share of their international revenues in 2020? They were forced to borrow more from abroad (technically, their current account deficit widened, or their surplus shrank), but also reduced net international spending in other categories. Imports of goods declined (reflecting both a contraction in domestic demand and a decline in tourism inputs such as imported food and energy) and payments to foreign creditors were lower, reflecting the decline in returns for foreign-owned hotel infrastructure.

The growth shock

We then examine whether countries more dependent on tourism suffered a bigger shock to economic activity in 2020 than other countries, measuring this shock as the difference between growth outcomes in 2020 and IMF growth forecasts as of January 2020, just prior to the pandemic. Our measure of the overall importance of tourism is the share of GDP accounted for by tourism-related activity over the 5 years preceding the pandemic, assembled by the World Travel and Tourism Council and disseminated by the World Bank . This measure takes into account the importance of domestic tourism as well as  international tourism.

Among the 40 countries with the largest share of tourism in GDP, the median size of growth shortfall compared to pre-COVID projections was around 11 percent, as against 6 percent for countries less dependent on tourism. For instance, in the tourism-dependent group, Greece, which was expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2020, shrunk by over 8 percent, while in the other group,  Germany, which was expected to grow by around 1 percent, shrunk by 4.8 percent. The scatter plot of Figure 2 provides more striking visual evidence of a negative correlation (-0.72) between tourism dependence and the growth shock in 2020.

Of course, many other factors may have affected differences in performance across economies—for instance, the intensity of the pandemic as well as the stringency of the associated lockdowns. We therefore build a simple statistical model that relates the “growth shock” in 2020 to these factors alongside our tourism variable, and also takes into account other potentially relevant country characteristics, such as the level of development, the composition of output, and country size. The message: the dependence on tourism is a key explanatory variable of the growth shock in 2020. For instance, the analysis suggests that going from the share of tourism in GDP of Canada (around 6 percent) to the one of Mexico (around 16 percent) would reduce growth in 2020 by around 2.5 percentage points. If we instead go from the tourism share of Canada to the one of Jamaica (where the share of tourism in GDP approaches one third), growth would be lower by over 6 percentage points.

Measures of the severity of the pandemic, the intensity of lockdowns, the level of development, and the sectoral composition of GDP (value added accounted for by manufacturing and agriculture) also matter, but quantitatively less so than tourism. And results are not driven by very small economies; tourism is still a key explanatory variable of the 2020 growth shock even if we restrict our sample to large economies. Among tourism-dependent economies, we also find evidence that those relying more heavily on international tourism experienced a more severe hit to economic activity when compared to those relying more on domestic tourism.

Given data availability at the time of writing, the evidence we provided is limited to 2020. The outlook for international tourism in 2021, if anything, is worse, though with increasing vaccine coverage the tide could turn next year. The crisis poses particularly daunting challenges to smaller tourist destinations, given limited possibilities for diversification. In many cases, particularly among emerging and developing economies, these challenges are compounded by high starting levels of domestic and external indebtedness, which can limit the space for an aggressive fiscal response. Helping these countries cope with the challenges posed by the pandemic and restoring viable public and external finances will require support from the international community.

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Ethiopia’s fragile tourism industry at crucial juncture

Can Ethiopia boost economic growth and eradicate poverty without ruining the very treasure it wants to promote?

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia –  A small plaque on this tiny deserted hillock deep in the forests of Kaffa, a province in western Ethiopia, bears an inscription in Amharic and English indicating that this is the birthplace of Ethiopia’s gift to the world: Arabica coffee, as locals will also confirm.

The plaque, hidden in the grass of the overgrown vegetation and invasive forest border, symbolises what has long hampered Ethiopia’s tourism industry. Despite a cultural, historical and linguistic identity quite distinct from the rest of Africa, Ethiopia never became a major tourist destination on the continent.

Where other countries would proclaim the news, beckoning tourists to come, Ethiopia never seemed that bothered by this fact. But this modest attitude is beginning to change.

In August this year the Ethiopian Ministry of Culture and Tourism made a bold announcement that it intended to triple foreign visitors to more than 2.5 million by 2020, with an ultimate goal of making Ethiopia a feature in Africa’s Top 5 tourist destinations by 2020.

“Key tourism factors such as easy and fast growing air access, personal safety and local hospitality, rapid economic growth and, above all, fascinating discoveries to be made bode very well for rapid tourism growth,” said Mike Fabricius of South Africa-based The Journey, a tourism consultancy company.

Not everyone, however, is so sure about the wisdom of chasing those numbers.

Setting goals for Ethiopia tourism

In 2013, the government established the Ethiopian Tourism Organisation (ETO) – mandated to boost tourism destination development and marketing, and enhance the benefits of tourism in a sustainable and competitive manner. This signalled a decision to take tourism seriously as a means of generating revenue and helping eradicate poverty.

“There are many reasons tourism took a back seat but the number one thing was getting the basic infrastructure in place,” said Solomon Tadesse, the chief executive of ETO. “Now, the government can fully get behind it based on the economic growth of the last 10 years, with the added benefit of how this has also created a good impression with the outside world.”

Tourism in Ethiopia currently generates $2.9bn for the economy each year, close to a million jobs and about 4.5 percent of the gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.

That percentage, however, trails the likes of Rwanda’s 9 percent of GDP, and tourism accounting for about 11 percent of global GDP. In 2013, a travel and tourism competitive index compiled by the World Economic Forum ranked Ethiopia’s tourism industry as 120th globally and 17th in Africa.

“We know we are behind our neighbours and need to run and catch up,” Tadesse said.

Others within Ethiopia’s tourism industry, however, urge caution, arguing that Ethiopia doesn’t need to think in terms of catching up. It should rather embrace its own unique tourism development model. The numbers game misses the main point, they say.

Greta Iori, a conservation and tourism professional who has worked in Mexico, South Africa and Ethiopia, where she grew up, said Ethiopia in this manner, “could become the No 1 destination on the continent though not only by tourist numbers but for quality of the experience and the uniqueness of the landscape.” 

Ethiopian tourism infrastructure for foreign standards

Most of Ethiopia’s tourism treats – including nine UNESCO World Heritage sites, the most for an African country – are fragile and risk being destroyed by hordes of tourists, Iori noted.

An additional concern is that a too rapid an increase in tourists could also lead to cultural clashes between locals and foreigners, resentment towards tourism for benefiting only the elite few, segregation of local societies, spiralling prices, money grabbing locals and increased crime.

“Generally it’s up-market tourism that works seamlessly, with the cheaper end that gives problems, and at the moment Ethiopia does not know which way to go,” said someone involved in Ethiopian tourism for more than 10 year who asked not to be named, adding that mass tourism for Ethiopia could put its “golden goose in the pot”.

Those holding such concerns hope that Ethiopia takes a more sustainable, lower volume option – compensating lower numbers by selling a higher quality product at a higher price – while tackling the weak operational state of its tourism industry to ensure adequate facilities exist for tourists who respond to new, more proactive marketing.

For now, finding what are in other tourist-bound countries basic facilities – a well-maintained public toilet, a decent camping site, a rest spot with basic catering facilities – typically proves a frustrated endeavour in the likes of Ethiopia’s national parks and on much of its tourist trail.

“Building infrastructure that meets the expectations of foreigners is key, as there is a limit to how much people are willing to rough it,” said Greg Dorey, UK ambassador to Ethiopia.

“But the jury is out on whether it can build up the supporting infrastructure sufficiently well, given the huge obstacles it places in the way of foreign entrepreneurs investing in this sector,” said Dorey.

Vulnerabilities of a tourism industry

For all the exciting projections and talk of transformative powers, tourism remains a fickle business – especially in Africa.

Kenya, for instance, has seen tourist numbers decline since last year’s terrorist attacks and travel warnings issued by Western governments, resulting in deserted beaches and thousands of hotel rooms unoccupied.

“We’re starting from ground zero, though that’s not a weakness rather an advantage as we have learned from others’ mistakes,” Tadesse says. “Make Ethiopia your travel destination and you’ll never be the quite the same again,” he adds.

Therein probably lies Ethiopian tourism’s greatest strength – there are still so many diverse cultures, landscapes and wildlife to be developed for tourist itineraries: the Simien and Bale Mountains; the forests of the South; the Sof Omar Caves; the Danakil Desert location of Lucy, the oldest and most complete hominid skeleton ever found, lending weight to Ethiopia’s claim as the cradle of humanity.

But while there is hope tourism will benefit the country, with many Ethiopians sorely needing employment, it remains to be seen how Ethiopia will be affected by more and more foreigners flashing wallets. The capital, Addis Ababa, flushed with money and people on the make, is already beginning to make many observers feel wary. 

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Critical shifts in the global tourism industry: perspectives from Africa

• Published: 06 October 2020
• Volume 87 , pages 1245–1264, ( 2022 )

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• Zibanai Zhou   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7918-2200 1  

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The study investigates critical shifts impacting the international tourism space in contemporary times. Furthermore, the current study examines tourism policies and product development challenges faced by tourist regions as a consequence of market dynamics. Drawing upon a sample of thirty tourism experts in southern Africa, the critical shifts were identified and key among them include BRICS, terrorism, ageing population, and trophy hunting, are increasingly framing a new narrative for the future growth trajectory of the international tourism industry’s value chain in the context of Africa. A conclusion is reached that to attain long term sustainable development of the sunrise multi-trillion dollar industry, it is critical that tourism operators re-set and deploy sharpened strategies which are in synch with the realities obtaining in the broader operating environment. Policy recommendations and managerial implications are proffered.

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Introduction

Globally, tourism contributes significantly to the national economies in terms of employment creation and revenue generation (Musavengane et al. 2019 ; UNWTO 2018a , b ). Understanding travel motivations and shifts in the global tourism marketplace is critical for unpacking future travel patterns and consumption perspectives, and also for tourist destinations to leverage on tourism spin-offs. Anton et al. ( 2017 ) observed that growing competition in the tourism landscape has resulted in destinations increasingly becoming concerned with balancing tourists with attracting new visitors.

While it is true that tourism is sensitive to violent events, political instabilities, disasters and calamities as well as economic meltdown (Alvarez and Campos 2014 ; Woyo 2018 ; Dieke 2009 ), it could be argued that tourism is also highly responsive to dynamics in the tourism market place. Hapairai et al. ( 2018 ) state that political crises often lead to a decline in visitorship and public and private tourism organisations should constantly adjust policies, and product offerings in tandem with market dynamics. However, research examining the fundamental shifts in the international tourism landscape is limited. Primary source markets such as the United Kingdom (UK); European Union, (EU) and North America consider emerging tourist destinations like Africa as offering alternative authentic touristic experiences as compared to over trodden traditional destinations. Based on this, understanding the implications of the global tourism market place fundamental shifts on emerging tourist regions such as Africa is critical for the formulation of destination- specific management strategies.

Research gap

The current study is informed by Dieke ( 2013 ) who opined that in Africa while there is a general disappointment with the economic returns from the tourism sector, there is insufficient knowledge of the market mix of international tourism, the market-driven nature of the sector, and the inability of governments to react to market changes or market signals. This is the research gap addressed by the current study. The current study therefore seeks to update and respond to these three issues at regional level in relation to Africa’s tourism industry in view of tourism dynamics in the marketplace.

In addition, this study seeks to also make a contribution to the disproportionate in extant literature on the burgeoning of literature on western and mature tourism markets at the expense of Africa (Rogerson and Visser 2014a , b ). The other major contribution of the current study is on the geographical ecology of tourism literature that largely remains dominated by western writers. The current study therefore ties well with Mkono ( 2019 ) ’s call for more African voices on tourism issues. “A sizeable proportion of tourism research on Africa has been conducted by outsiders.” (Mkono 2019 , p. 3). “… Locals’ opinions are often not meaningfully represented in tourism studies.” Mkono 2019 , p. 3). “If tourism studies are to reflect a more balanced representation, then the lens for viewing needs to be adjusted and diversified by having more page space for Africans in scholarly works (Mkono 2019 ). Henceforth, the study would give a fresh African narrative in the current global tourism discourse.

In addition, Naude and Saayman ( 2005 ) and Kester ( 2003 ) observed that observed that the economic dimensions of tourism to Africa, and specifically the determinants of the demand for Africa as a tourist destination, are neglected in the economic research literature. It is on the strength of Naude and Saayman ( 2005 )’s observed scholarly literature gap pertaining to Africa’s tourism industry that the current study seeks to address. Furthermore, Christie and Crompton ( 2001 ) bemoaned the lack of appropriate empirical research on tourism to Africa that undoubtedly contributes to the ‘limited policy guidance to the sector in relation to tourism market dynamics.

In this respect, Rogerson and Visser ( 2011 ) argued that the imperative exists for strengthening the tempo of critical research on geopolitical developments, development debates, and global economic crises. In the past 2 decades, there is an expanding body of critical work on tourism in southern Africa, though still, very little is known with regard to the critical shifts in the global tourism sector. Another context underpinning this study is trophy hunting, a controversial phenomenon which has been the subject of extensive but inconclusive research from a variety of angles (Batavia et al. 2018 ; Batara et al. 2018 ; Mkono 2018 ). To add on, Scott et al. ( 2012 ) noted that one of the limitation of the tourism literature in Africa is that studies have tended to examine the travel and tourism industry only in terms of one element of the tourism system, usually at a nation state level, or tourism sub-sector level, rather than conducting the broader tourism system (see, Donaldson and Ferreira 2007 ; Mbaiwa and Stronza 2010 ; Buscher 2013 ; Kavita and Saarinen 2016 ; Tichaawa 2017 ; Hoogendorn and Fitchett 2018 ).

Research investigating these shifts have done so from a developed country context (see, Giraldi 2016 ; Debyser 2014 ; Maria-Irina 2017 ; Weston et al. 2019a ) leaving a theoretical gap in the context of Africa, as an emerging destination. Understanding such global shifts is critical not only for destination managers, but also for institutional investors and public sector because it helps in terms of forecasting travel patterns, weighing investment opportunities, and budgeting. Furthermore, the constructs of terrorism, BRICs, trophy hunting and an ageing population are yet to be measured and applied simultaneously with the interconnectedness of nation states in the context of an emerging tourist region like Africa. Though there is an emerging stream of literature focusing on factors shaping international tourism future trends at the global level (UNWTO 2019a , b ; OECD 2018a ), there is a general absence of literature regarding the specific lynchpin variables which pertains exclusively to emerging tourist regions like Africa. Furthermore, the tourism related challenges and opportunities spawned by such fundamental variables in emerging tourist destination contexts like Africa remains mostly unknown.

Study rationale and importance

The international tourism landscape is not only dynamic, but fraught with an environment that is constantly changing in a very unpredictable manner (Badulesani and Rusu 2009 ; Kyyra and Rantala 2016 ; UNCTD 2016 ). Whilst the UNWTO and practitioners acknowledge the centrality of the market dynamics in the global tourism space, there has not been a corresponding sufficient academic gaze in the current literature discourse dedicated to interrogating and unpacking such issues within the frame of Africa.

The tourism industry is considered a key growth sector in southern Africa economy. Safety and security are regarded as primary ingredients for tourism growth and destination competitiveness (Donalsdson and Ferreira 2009 ; Correia et al. 2013 ; Langfield et al. 2019 ); however tourism demand and factors impacting on it remain under-researched areas (Visser and Rogerson 2004 ). Since this study deals with the global dynamics in the areas of terrorism, BRICS, trophy hunting, and ageing population; it differs conceptually and contextually from other previous tourism development studies in tourism. This paper is therefore theoretically situated in the international tourism futures literature.

The research was inspired by the fact that the contemporary international tourism sector has matured since the 1950s. It has grown from being an exclusive preserve of advanced societies to becoming a multi-party phenomenon in which the emerging markets are now actively participating (UNWTO 2018a , b ). Another motivating factor was that the industry has been traditionally dominated by the most advanced economies, especially the G7 countries, in the global north at the expense of intermediate economies, however emerging markets are encouragingly catching up (Bhatia 2001 ; Cooper et al. 2008 ).

Document analysis, archival information and expert opinions were employed to solicit for information that enriched the international tourism discourse from Africa’s perspective. The study highlights the critical shifts that undergird tourism future development and growth trajectories.

Research purpose and objectives

The aim of this study is to enhance and build on (1) Christie and Crompton ( 2001 )’s observation that there is lack of appropriate empirical research on tourism to Africa, which undoubtedly contributes to the limited policy guidance to the sector; (2) Naude and Saayman ( 2005 )’s assertion that there is a neglect of the economic dimension of tourism to Africa; and (3) Rogerson and Visser ( 2011 ) in which they opined the existence of an imperative for strengthening the tempo of critical research on geopolitical developments, development debates and global economic crises; and (4) Dieke ( 2013 ) who stated that in Africa there is not only insufficient knowledge of the market mix of international tourism, but also the market-driven nature of the sector as well as the inability of governments to react to market changes or market signals.

The objective of this study is to understand the fundamental global shifts in the international tourism landscape with special focus on Africa. To achieve this objective, data were collected from 30 tourism experts drawn from southern Africa region. Specifically, this study seeks to answer the following research questions: (1) Why should emerging tourist regions like Africa be concerned with dynamics on the broader international tourism landscape? Of these factors, which ones significantly predict the future growth trajectories of the tourism industry in African context? Which specific tourism market shifts have impacted on Africa’s tourism sector? (2) What challenges and opportunities do emerging tourist destinations face in the advent of these global shifts? What challenges and implications do these shifts pose on Africa’s tourism product offering, marketing strategies and planning for her tourism sector. In addressing these research questions, this study advances the understanding of the long term consequences of the global shifts on Africa’s travel and tourism landscape. This study also adds to the debate focusing on travel motivations, trophy hunting (Baker 2010 ) crises (Steiner 2017 ; Al-Shorman et al. 2016 ), and mitigation strategies from a context-specific emerging tourist destination. The results of the survey can meaningfully inform the formulation of marketing messages aimed at repositioning Africa, thus making it even a more appealing tourist destination in spite of headwinds in the marketplace. In what way can Africa better prepare and anticipate the impacts of these shifts on custom, turn over, sales, investment etc.

Paper structure

The remaining sections are structured as follows: the next section briefly reviews key themes in relevant existing studies highlighting the sector’s economic significance at global level. This is followed by a brief description of the data and the empirical methodology. The analyses section provides a discussion of the empirical results using the content analysis highlighting the multi-faceted nature of tourism market dynamics. The final section provides overall conclusion and recommendations.

Literature review

Current state of tourism research in africa: a regional and international context.

Several studies have examined variables impacting international tourism at global level in different regional contexts, for example, tourism senior market (Naude and Saayman 2005 ; Alen et al. 2015 ); BRICs (Pop 2014 ; Abdou and Adawy 2018 ) using a number of relationships including data panel analysis, time series, arrivals and receipts; direction flows and distribution. However, studies examining the constructs of BRICs, terrorism, senior tourism market (ageing population demography), and trophy hunting controversy, from the African region perspective are limited. For example, existing studies have only investigated international tourism trends from advanced societies’ contexts; cases in point include Maria-Irina ( 2017 ), Debyser ( 2014 ), Weston et al. ( 2019a ) among others. Likewise, Rogerson and Visser ( 2011 ) argued for the continued need to understand the market dynamics fuelling tourism development trajectories in different tourist destination contexts. Additionally, previous studies that focused on tourism development in African tourist destinations have not only been restricted to a specific country or sub-region of continental Africa, but also limited in scope as they largely focused on specific segments and certain clusters of the tourism sector such as mega events, wildlife (Saarinen 2018 ), tourism and poverty alleviation (Spenceley and Meyer 2017 ), urban tourism (Rogerson 2013 ), ecotourism (Mbaiwa 2008 ) among others. While these studies provide in-depth analyses and insight into Africa’s tourism, there has not been an attempt to engage in other evolving issues with the potential to change the complexion of the region’s tourism sector.

On the international scale, there has been a sustained research on issues influencing the unpredictable dynamics of the international tourism ecosystem that hogged the global limelight, ranging from the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the US, Tsunami; SARs epidemic in Asia (Gaetano 2009 ; Schuurman 2019 ; Qui et al. 2018 ; Zeng et al. 2005 ; Bongkosh 2006 ; Tang et al. 2020 ); Asian financial crisis, the current Covid-2019 virus, Ebola outbreak in western Africa (Song and Lin 2010 ; Wang 2009 ; Gossling et al. 2020 ; Al-Tawfiqef et al. 2014 ; Maphanga and Henama 2019 ; Kongoley 2015 ); political conflicts in the Middle east; Icelandic ashes, the disappearance of Malaysian airplane (Al-Shorman et al. 2016 ; Steiner 2017 ; Benediktsson et al. 2011 ; Heimisdottir et al. 2019 ; Weng 2014 ; Fan et al. 2019 ); CITES’s trophy hunting ban, as well as climate change induced extreme weather patterns like hurricanes, cyclones and heat waves (Prideaux et al. 2009 ; Njerekai and Mabika 2016 ; Baker 2010 ; Pandy 2017 ; Moore 2010 ). Whilst acknowledging the diverse and richness of the current international tourism body of literature, the current study argues that very little attempts have been made to explore the policy and product development implications of the constructs of BRICS, terrorism, ageing population and trophy hunting in the context of Africa. Perspectives on these evolving issues from emerging tourist destinations contexts seem neglected in the academic gaze, yet in contemporary times these are the issues increasingly influencing dynamics in the tourism space.

None the less studies offering a regional perspective from emerging tourist destination context are limited; with existing studies only investigating specific segments of the tourism industry in Africa, for example, township tourism (Boyens 2010 ); conference tourism (Donaldson 2013 ); communities and trans-frontier parks (Ferreira 2006 ), and green guest houses (Hoogendorn et al. 2015 ), with very little attempt to relate these to market shifts.

Though there is a substantial research on tourism, the tourism marketplace, remains dynamic. Debyser ( 2014 ) analysed the challenges and policy responses to the tourism sector by the EU, whilst Tolkach et al. ( 2016 ) explored current and emerging tourism trends in the Asia Pacific region through a content analysis. Tolkach et al. ( 2016 ) study found that economic growth, favourable political environment and improved infrastructure were sustaining continual growth of the sector in the region. Furthermore, Maria-Irina ( 2017 ) examined tourism in the new member states of the European Union in which the focus was on the importance of tourism, factors and trends that affect the industry within the EU community. Still, Weston et al. ( 2019b ) provided an overview of the current state of affairs in European tourism, considering the latest developments, identifying future challenges and emerging opportunities. The study established that changes in tourist behaviour and generational issues were significant challenges. Even though there is a burgeoning tourism studies in the African contexts for the past 2 decades, for example, Ferreira ( 2004 ), Donaldson and Ferreira ( 2007 ), Ferreira et al. ( 2007 ), Booyens and Visser ( 2010 ), Rogerson ( 2011 ), Zhou ( 2014 ), Scholtz and Slabbert ( 2016 ) and Tichaawa ( 2017 ); still these researches apart from being disproportionately too low to tourism researches in Europe and The Americas, they have been consistently oblivious of the quartet of BRICS, trophy hunting, ageing population and terrorism as critical shifts in the tourism landscape, hence leaving a theoretical gap in emerging tourist regions like Africa. To put the issue into perspective, studies examining dynamics in the international tourism industry since 1950 in the context of Africa are limited. A case in point is the study by Signe ( 2018 ) who examined Africa’s tourism potential, renewed trends, key drivers, opportunities and strategies. The study found that there was huge potential due to the continent’s richness in natural resources and cultural heritage; and that west African countries had introduced a visa policy to enable free movement of people across member states. Furthermore, the study established that tourism was important to Africa as it was driving economic growth and job creation, infrastructure development, generating foreign exchange. Globalisation was the key driver of tourism. Challenges of poor infrastructure and weak institutions were cited, whilst opportunities were that Africa was the best candidate for investment. Similarly, Diakite et al. ( 2020 )’s study was country-specific. They examined tourism trends, opportunities and challenges in Guinea in which it was established that Ebola was a major challenge. In addition, Jaensson ( 2014 ) examined potential for tourism development in sub-Saharan Africa in cooperation with Sweden. The study results showed that the sector is important in poverty reduction, foreign exchange earnings, employment and economic growth.

Still, Zhou ( 2014 ) analysed recent trends and future prospects of tourism in southern Africa sub-region. The study’s focus was on tourism development and growth at sub-regional level, and the study found that the need for economic diversity, job creation, foreign currency generation were factors motivating southern Africa countries to develop the tourism sector. Hosting of mega events, establishment of nature parks and aggressive marketing campaigns were identified as key elements allowing for the resurgence of tourist arrivals in the sub-region. Dieke ( 2013 ) examined a production-nexus of tourism in sub-Saharan Africa. Dieke ( 2020 ) analysed tourism issues and prospects in Africa. The study focused on the current state of tourism to and within Africa, highlighting key themes and issues that confront the industry across the continent. The results of the study showed that human resources have had consequences for the sector, resulting in the further marginalisation of Africa in the global pleasure periphery. Taken together, these studies revealed that understanding the dynamics in the international tourism arena is critical for destination managers because it helps in terms of forecasting travel patterns, demand for tourism products, growth projections and investing in new product development, investment into new markets, trends among a host of others. Furthermore, from the analysis of previous studies it seems researches making a direct application of these critical shifts to a particular or specific emerging tourism region like Africa are lacking. Though there is an emerging stream of literature focusing on various facets of Africa’s tourism industry, (see Ferreira 2006 ; Boyens 2010 ; Slabbert and De Plussis 2013 ; Donaldson 2013 ; Rogerson 2014 ; Tichaawa 2017 ; Chiutsi and Saarinen 2017 ; Musavengane 2018 ; Mbaiwa 2018 ), there is a general paucity of literature regarding how the dynamics obtaining on the broader international tourism arena would mean for Africa’s tourism industry and how the continent should respond to such critical shifts at operational and policy making level, tactically and strategically. It is a compelling case to investigate how such dynamics inform tourism policy formulation, inform investment options into product development, inform investment into new markets, and inform re-calibration of marketing strategies; which in the context of Africa remain mostly unknown.

Alvarez and Campos ( 2014 ) and Woyo ( 2018 ) posit that tourism is sensitive to political, economic, ecological, technological, legal and socio-economic environment. However, research examining such critical shifts in the broader global tourism environment and their attendant implications to emerging tourist regions like Africa is limited.

Overview of international tourism and its socio-economic significance

The post world war two (WWII), boom factors chiefly the advent of jet engine, political peace and economic stability, dual family income, inclusive tours, coupled with ICTs and education, generally laid the ground work for the growth and development of the tourism industry (Bhatia 2001 ; Boniface and Cooper 2001 ; Lockwood and Medlick 2001 ). However, whilst these factors are still relevant, the tourism industry has mutated as new variables evolve, presenting a new set of opportunities and challenges for the tourism industry requiring a different approach from tourist destinations. International tourist arrivals world-wide grew over 1.4 billion in 2018, 1.5 billion in 2019 and most likely the threshold of 1.8 billion travellers is now likely to be exceeded in advance of 2030 (OECD 2020 ). Globally, international travel receipts reached $146.2 billion in 2018, and globally expenditures on travel have more than tripled since the turn of the century, rising to 1.5 trillion in 2018 (UNWTO 2019b , 2020 ).

Tourism is crucial to the global economy, and is regarded as a trillion dollar industry, contributing immensely to GDP, as well as employing one in every 11 people (UNWTO 2018a , b ). Tourism contributes to the world economy GDP directly and indirectly through provision of full time jobs, it has a multiplier effect on down and upstream economic sub-sectors (WTTC 2017 ; Zhou 2019 ; Musavengane 2018 ; Mbaiwa et al. 2019 ; Saarinen et al. 2009 ; Nyahunzvi 2015 ). The recent developments in the broader global economic environment underpinned by the emergence of BRICS, an ageing population demographic, calls for CITES reform cum ban on trophy hunting, and the scourge of terrorism are collectively recognised by the academia, tourism fraternity and policy makers as shaping the global tourism growth agenda and its development trajectory dynamics in the twenty-first century. Despite the severity and weight of these evolving issues, the global tourism industry is poised to grow in stature. While this is the case, there seems to be limited academic rigour on such phenomena, given that the available scholarship on global tourism industry dimension has not adequately explored the extent to which individual factors like the BRICS, population demographics, trophy hunting debate are shaping and influencing the global tourism industry growth trajectory.

The tourism industry is one of the fastest growing sectors of the global economy, and the sector is a benefactor of the globalisation process. In 1950 there were 25 million international tourists arrivals, in 2000 there were 1 billion tourists, in 2020 it is envisaged that 1.6 billion international tourists would engage in touristic activities, and further still in 2030 the figure is forecast to hit the 1.8 billion (UNWTO 2010 , 2019a , b ). However, despite these impressive aggregate arrivals figure, the sector has to grapple with a milieu of opportunities and threats born out of the ever evolving tourism market place.

On the employment front, tourism is extremely labour intensive and a significant source of direct, indirect and induced employment. It is among the world’s top creators of jobs requiring varying degrees of skills and allow for quick entry into the workforce for youths, women and migrant workers and the UNTWO indicated that the tourism sector provided 296 million jobs in 2019 (WTTC 2018 ; OECD 2018b ; UNWTO 2019a , b ). With over 1.2 billion people world-wide crossing international borders each year, tourism is increasingly becoming a major source of growth, employment and income for many countries including many of the world’s developing countries. Tourism has the potential to contribute to all of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) found within the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, including SDG 8 on inclusive and sustainable economic growth, SDG 11 on cities and human settlements, SDG 12 on sustainable consumption and production. This underlines the need to rightly place tourism as one of the key pillars of socio-economic development.

The World Bank ( 2014 ) and UNWTO ( 2018a , b ) posit that tourism will be one of the main drivers of economic growth in Africa over the next decade. An increasing number of countries, for example, South Africa, Kenya and Rwanda henceforth, have made tourism a central pillar of their economic development and reform program, and have made significant economic strides using tourism as a plank to boost their economies. Page ( 2018 ) and Coulibary ( 2018 ) concurred that tourism is an escalator of development. However, in order for Africa to reap tourism benefits, the region has to align its tourism offerings to marketplace dynamics.

Despite Africa’s documented perennial challenges, curtailing the growth and expansion of the tourism industry, that encompasses infrastructure underdevelopment, access issues, lack of direct flights, little appropriate promotional marketing strategies and investment budgets, portrayal of Africa as a land of war, disease, poverty, hunger, anguish and desperation by foreign mainstream media, 67 million tourists visited the region in the region, generating $194.2 billion worth of revenue (Diakite et al. 2020 ).

Tourism in Africa: socio-economic significance on African economies

Henceforth, tourism is a powerful vehicle for economic growth and job creation all over the world. Tourism’s main comparative advantage over other sectors is that visitor expenditures have a “flow-through” or catalytic effect across the economy in terms of product and employment creation (Christie et al. 2013 ; Schubert et al. 2011 ). Given the multi-sectoral nature of tourism, its success is dependent upon the external and internal dynamics on the environment. The potential for tourism growth in Africa is significant, anchored not only on the region’s abundant pristine wildlife coupled with expansive beaches, but also on its cultural heritage. Continental Africa is poised to realise $262 billion in revenue from 1 billion people travelling internationally. At first glance, it may appear that its smooth sailing for Africa, however, on closer inspection, such a bright future projection is made without taking into account the critical shifts panning out in the tourism market place. Africa’s adaptive capacity in relation to the risks and opportunities posed by market dynamics will ensure the success of its tourism sector. The fact that the BRICS, ageing population, terrorism and trophy hunting issues are taking root in the marketplace it is about time that emerging tourist destinations tourism starts a serious conversation to establish the implications of these dynamics on the tourism system.

It is no doubt that Africa has had an impressive average growth rate of her travel and tourism, which trends have continued into the twenty-first century, bolstered by a period of impressive economic growth and improvements in political stability and opportunities across the continent. The African Development Bank (AfDB) indicated that in 2015, Africa recorded 62.5 million visitors, contributed 9.1 million jobs directly and generated $39.2 billion international tourism receipts (AfDB 2016 , p. 4). Looking into the future, there is substantial room for growth in Africa’s travel and tourism market, particularly in light of current sectoral growth patterns, as international tourists are increasingly interested in developing countries as travel destinations, provide the region properly align its tourism sector to dynamics obtaining in the marketplace.

Tourism is a major global economic sector that is undergoing tremendous growth in emerging economies and is often touted as salient for the development and poverty alleviation in developing countries (Scott et al. 2012 ).

Tourism has been embraced largely due to its employment and foreign currency generative capacity, as it continues to make a substantial contribution to the economies of many countries around the world (Zhou 2014 ; Mkono et al. 2020 ). With the exception of 2020, each year, the tourism industry has outrun projected international tourist arrivals riding on the back of liberalisation of the aerospace, globalisation, and rising income levels. It is forecast that if the current momentum is maintained, international tourist arrivals are expected to reach 1.8 billion by 2030 (UNWTO 2020 ). Tourism is an important economic sector to many African economies in terms of its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), employment and trade (UNCTD 2017 ). At a time when the region is building its productive capacities, consolidating regional integration and pursuing economic diversification, tourism in Africa continues to grow. Apart from stimulating employment creation and enticing investment, tourism also contributes towards the preservation of ecosystems and biodiversity.

At continental level, the African Union’s Agenda 2063 recognise tourism’s importance in driving Africa’s socio- economic development and structural transformation through job creation. The Economic Development in Africa Report (2017) reported that tourism can be an engine for inclusive growth and economic development and that it can complement development strategies aimed at fostering economic diversification and structural transformation within the right policy context. However, conspicuously missing in the report is any reference to terrorism, ageing population, trophy hunting, and BRICS, and the extent to which they threaten the envisaged economic gains. To achieve this Africa must be cognisant of changes taking place in the global tourism market place. Tourism marketplace dynamics provide greater scope for the region to boost international travel into Africa, leveraging on Africa’s comparative advantage of its renowned tourism resource base. Market dynamics will inevitably alter the competitiveness of tourist destinations as well as the suitability of major tourism market segments. It is evident that all tourist destinations will need to adapt to market dynamics, whether to minimise risks or to capitalise on new opportunities associated with the constructs of BRICS, terrorism, trophy hunting and ageing population.

Methodology

Data were gathered through document analysis, combing archival information and expert opinions canvassed from key informants drawn from the broad travel and tourism industry who were knowledgeable about the dynamics and trends of the international tourism industry from Africa’s perspective. Regional market shares, and tourist arrivals from 1950 to 2020, UNWTO forecasts and projections were employed.

Key interview informants were qualified as tourism experts on the basis of their extensive working experience directly in various sub-sectors of the tourism industry at regional and international level, that is, hotels, tour operations, conventions, NTO as regional and international tourism markets, tourism attachés in charge of overseas tourism markets, tourism market development, planning and forecasting. Informants’ intimate knowledge on international tourism and market dynamics coupled with extensive working experience in the hospitality and tourism sector earned them the expert status. In order to participate in the study, respondents had to have over 20 years working experience in the tourism sector at senior management level in the marketing department in charge of regional and overseas tourism markets. To widen the pool of informants, the study included responses of tourism experts including representatives from government, international organisations and other tourism industry related government departments selected through snowball technique. This was also supported by a review of recent literature and data.

Resultantly, a total of 20 interviews were administered out of a total population of 30 potential informants (Krejciie and Morgan 1970 ). A pilot study was done before the actual data collection to ensure the comprehensiveness, readability and clarity.

In-depth interviews were conducted with 25 purposively sampled respondents. Interview session lasted an average of 30 min. Interviews were discontinued after data saturation was reached. The study was based on predominantly a series of open-ended, semi-structured interviews conducted with ten female, and fifteen males purposively selected from tourism representative bodies. Semi-structured interviews were chosen because they allowed the researcher to probe for additional information and to seek clarification. The above is in line with the assertion that semi-structured interviews offer insights “into respondents’ memories and explanations of why things have come to be what they are, as well as descriptions of current problems and aspirations” (Stake and Torrance 2005 , p. 33). The interviews that were conducted were restricted to people who gave their informed consent and each interview lasted on average 30 min. Items on the interview schedule were informed by literature and prior studies related to tourism growth in other touristic regions. The research participants were asked a broad range of questions in order to gain an understanding of the interplay between the global tourism industry and dynamics in the broader global operating environment in the context of Africa. The line of questioning explored, key variables driving tourism at global and regional level, critical shifts in the tourism market place influencing tourism development, tourist regions’ responsive strategies to market dynamics, implications of contemporary market dynamics to emerging tourist destinations among other aspects. Data were recorded manually (Saldana 2013 ). The interpretation and analysis of the qualitative materials was an on-going process that proved inseparable from the field work. In the field, after each interview, the data was analysed to inform subsequent interviews and to capture preliminary emergent themes as recommended by Mertens ( 2005 ). After fieldwork, the interview material was later, thematically analysed to reveal emergent themes, following Miles et al ( 2013 ) and Veal’s ( 2006 ) guidelines. In line with qualitative research, interviews were discontinued when theoretical saturation or data redundancy was reached (Jennings 2005 ); in this case five out of the 25 interviews held contained no new themes. The next section provides a detailed and concurrent presentation and discussion of the dominant themes that emerged during the interactions with the research participants. Four themes were identified in the analysis of the qualitative materials that were obtained from the interviews. These were BRICS, senior tourism market, CITES’ trophy hunting debate, and the scourge of terrorism. Each one of the five themes is discussed below.

Results and discussion

Recurrent themes which emerged from respondents’ narratives were grouped into five key themes, which were; BRICS, ageing tourism market, trophy hunting and terrorism.

Formation of BRICS economic grouping

A number of respondents found that the BRICs economic grouping was indeed a game changer in the tourism marketplace. BRICS being a post 2000 phenomenon was set to establish a new economic world order, competing with the G7 countries which traditionally dominated the tourism sector. In particular, informants described BRICS as revolutionary in tilting the balance of economic prowess in favour of the developing countries. This is a critical milestone in the historical development of the tourism industry in the sense that for the first time the global south is playing a significant role in the global tourism affairs. In light of such market realities and as a way of going forward it implies Africa should now improve its tourism infrastructure to match world class standards ahead of increased tourists from BRICS. Africa’s tourism product should also be now tailor made to accommodate new a new market with a new set of preferences, tastes and travel habits/behaviour different from the traditional western markets. This echoes the sentiments of UNWTO ( 2018a , b ) and Znojek ( 2012 ) that going forward emerging economies will drive the key economic sectors at global level, including tourism. To illustrate, respondents pointed out that China, India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa are increasingly emerging as key tourism source markets ahead of the traditional markets of western.

In contemporary times, countries from the global south, buoyed by an uptick in per capita income are poised to become leading contenders for the first time in international tourism growth matrix despite being insignificant in the broader global tourism industry in the 1950s.

Another insight revealed by respondents was that since WWII, the global financial sphere was been dominated by the Bretton-woods institutions, however, this was changing with the rise of the Asian Tigers, coupled with rapid economic transformation in the emerging markets fronted by BRICS. Tourism is driven by an economic boom, a characteristic feature punctuating the BRICS. Brazil of South America, Russia of Eastern Europe, India and China of Asia Pacific, and South Africa from southern Africa constitute the BRICS gamut. On the horizon, the five-nation state grouping is determined to set up a multilateral financial institution modelled alongside the century old International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) as a way of disrupting the status quo in the global financial services market systems. The implications of the BRICS bank after its eventual full consummation would be the source of funding of tourism developmental projects for the emerging markets. Such projects would be prioritised in terms of funding without the bureaucracy and exclusionary tendencies synonymous with the IMF and WB. It also imply that nation states from the global South would easily access loans as seed capital to shore up and stimulate economic development which will later on spur economic prosperity and eventually boost tourism. The birth of BRICS is changing the face of the international tourism in much the same way as the boom factors of the 1950s–60s did through enhanced tourism access, free flow of international tourism traffic and capital without restrictions, enticing of FDI, and boosting of demand in favour of the emerging markets.

Favourable implications on Africa are the characteristic features punctuating the BRICs which support tourism, that is, fastest growing economies, rapidly expanding middle classes and promising domestic markets, as well as the potential to overtake the G7 as the world’s best performing economies by 2040 (Pop 2014 ). Given the positive relationship between economic performance and tourism, this would mean that a huge boost for the BRICS nation state’s respective tourism industries with a potential spill over to the rest of African region. The emerging markets of the BRICS countries have long been highlighted as the future power houses of the travel and tourism industry. Abdou and Adawy ( 2018 ) contend that BRICS countries are the leading economies in the world as they are expected to cause a global economic shift and have power more than Europe economies and US in the near future.

Informants were excited by prospects of China and India morphing into citadels of commerce at global level. The BRICS premise is very significant to the tourism industry of emerging countries in several ways. China and India are set to mutate into hubs of manufactured goods and services globally, while Brazil and Russia will become leading suppliers of raw material. The BRICS is set to become the seat of influence on tourism affairs, from being the leading global tourism market, leading tourist destination, leading recipient of tourism related FDI unlike the period in the early 1960s. This finding is in line with projections made by the IMF and WB that in future China and India will become global centres of commerce and trade. One official had this to say:

Certainly, BRICS will upset the applecart, already there is a seismic shift in the tourism marketplace, where we see traditional tourist destinations becoming less and less popular, whilst emerging markets are shining

Currently, BRICS account for more than 40% of the world’s population, over 50% of world economic growth, 53% of world foreign investment (Zhao 2011 ; Znojek 2012 ), and has been deemed as a platform for the emerging economies to share a stronger voice on the international stage. To be specific, Brazil occupies a prominent place in world affairs, and is one of the world’s ten biggest economies, India is an emerging global power, South Africa is equally a regional power with global aspirations and has taken a more assertive continental role. It is Africa’s largest economy and regarded as a doyen of democracy, whilst at the same time it is a key player in the region’s stability (Carothers and Young 2011 ).

BRICS’ long haul objective is to accelerate the shift towards a multi-polar international order and to gain an adequate presence for emerging economies in reformed global institutions. Unlike before when the global tourism industry was dominated by the G7 countries, which are essentially proxies from advanced economies, the emerging markets of the BRICS have thus been regarded as the future powerhouses of the travel and tourism industry as evidenced by the increasing trend where upon the BRICS feature prominently in the World Travel Market Industry Report (World Travel Market 2012 ).

On inbound tourism China is increasingly becoming a leading tourist destination at global level, Brazil at second place challenging traditional leaders like France, Spain, and the US. To its credit, BRICS is well endowed with natural and cultural tourism resources, massive infrastructural developments in the way of air and ground transport, protected land areas, and richest fauna in the world. This gives it comparative advantage over the traditional G7 countries. In essence, this is driving the global tourism trends to gravitate towards the emerging markets as opposed to the traditional western markets.

Africa should take a cue on how BRICS is also shaping a new narrative in the event tourism space. The increasing importance of mega events particularly sporting events such as the Olympics and the FIFA world cups provide a window of opportunity for highly significant upgrades in infrastructures, human resources, products and quality. South Africa’s 2010 FIFA world cup was a resounding success, Olympics Winter Games in Russia Federation and FIFA world cup 2018 in Russia, FIFA world cup in 2014 in Brazil and the Olympics Summer Games of 2016 helped putting the BRICS on the global tourism map. There is no doubt that the growth of the global tourism industry is being driven by emerging economies, that is, BRICS. The present dynamics confirm that unlike in the twentieth century where economic growth was mainly driven by the developed world, in the twenty-first century, the growth engine has relocated to the emerging and developing markets, particularly the BRICS.

As per capita incomes increase, the services sector grows relative to the other sectors of the economy, and this dynamic is important as the BRICS countries are planning to go from middle to high income status. Resultantly, many countries world-wide are now actively courting tourist arrivals from the BRICS in particular China. Given its large population, and the fact that a growing percentage of people can now afford, both in terms of time and money to travel overseas has had a major impact on the global tourist market. Globally, on the economic and tourism front, there is a scramble for the BRICS as they represent tomorrow’s tourism sunrise economy. There is huge appetite world-wide to invest in the BRICS’ tourism sector, which in itself is an endorsement in terms of the shift of balance of power in tourism demand generating markets. The BRICS have indeed become a force to reckon with in international tourism affairs in the period post WWII just like the G7 countries. China and India, for example, buoyed by the population demographic factor are set to tilt the balance of power towards the Asia–Pacific as both a generator and recipient of outbound and inbound international tourism traffic. As such, BRICS have emerged as an important player in the global economic sectors, tourism included, with its services export growing faster than the developed countries. At the same time BRICS are generating an increasing number of tourists as per capita income rise and a relatively big share of this increase would be spent on tourism. In this milieu, the over trodden global north tourist destinations have now matured hence the focus has turned on exotic tourist destinations which are far flung from the beaten track.

Ageing tourism market

The majority of the respondents suggested that the elderly population presents a market of particular relevance to a large number of industries for its high purchasing power, comparatively higher than younger groups, more so to the tourism industry. It was apparent from the response that the tourism sector was emerging as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the ageing process as a result of changes in the lifestyle of the population. This finding conforms to Alen et al. ( 2015 ) and Cooper et al. ( 2007 ) who similarly established that the ageing baby boom generation was slowly becoming one of the most important markets in the tourism context. Indeed, the ageing of the baby boom generation marks an important milestone in the development history of the tourism sector in light of their purchasing power. Schroder and Widman ( 2007 ) deemed the senior tourism market demographic change as one of the biggest growth and most important markets in the tourism industry, turning it into the engine of growth for tourism. This is in consonance with the UNWTO ( 2018a , b )’s prediction that by 2050 there will be more than 2 billion international travellers aged 60 and above compared to 593 million in 1999 (Patterson 2006 ). Such demographic shifts will affect the structure of tourism supply and demand at regional level. The implication on Africa about the increasingly ageing population is that market tastes and vacation habits will change. The senior market clientele is experienced, more discerning and high spenders. This corroborates Glover and Prideaux ( 2009 )’s observation that population ageing affects the future choice of tourism activities and destinations, and ultimately future tourism growth projections like trends, patterns and traffic. As the global tourism market gravitates towards the senior market, so does its tastes, preferences and holiday patterns. This is in synch with Weaver and Oppermann ( 2000 ) and Salt ( 2003 ) who support the view that demand for tourism products and experiences change with age. The senior tourism market is keen to travel to exotic tourist destinations like Africa calling for an overhaul of Africa’s tourism product. Individual factors such as family status, employment, education, health status, travel experience and generational values change with age, henceforth tourist destinations have to pay particular attention to these and adjust product offerings accordingly (Glover and Prideaux 2000).

An ageing population implies that the demand for authentic tourism products and experiences most in emerging regions like Africa aimed at the senior tourism market or older population is likely to increase both in actual number and in proportion of all holidays as the number of older people grows. The senior tourism market, given its old age, takes more leisure trips more frequently courtesy of the availability of time and higher discretionary income. It is therefore instructive that if emerging tourist destinations are to remain competitive and successful they need to be aware of the differences that may be apparent in the demand profiles of specific generation gaps. From Africa’s perspective, the battle for the competitiveness and growth of the global tourism market share will be fought and won on the basis of them being capable to appeal to multi-generation markets. Tourist destinations in the global tourism industry vigilant to tourism market shift on tourism demand based on population demographics are poised to reap the benefits.

Prideaux et al. ( 2000 ) posit that the inability of tourist destinations from recalibrating current range of tourism products and services to reflect the aspirations and consumption patterns of senior market may result in a slow decline in visitor numbers in the coming years. Ideally, tourist destinations world- wide recognise that a change in demand is underway hence the need to start working on modifying the tourism product that resonates with an ageing population. In short, tourism demand would be a function of population demographics. An understanding of where the world and tourism market is heading is crucial for identifying opportunities that are brought about by that change.

Embedded in ageing are health issues such as hypertension, obesity, and heart diseases which increase in prevalence along with age. Ageing population equally has a business and financial dimension, that is, the elderly are better educated and wealthier than previous generations (Callister 2006 ). The elderly tourism market is keen to give back to the community or cultures they visit, they therefore combine tourism with volunteer work, aptly labelled as voluntourism (Furlong 2006 ; Thornhill and Martin 2006 ). The tourism industry must ensure that appropriate facilities are available to meet the needs of these consumers. Whilst developing countries are still comparatively characterised by young population, industrialised countries are confronted with an ageing population, and low birth rates (UN 2011 ; Goldin 2010 ).

CITES’ trophy hunting debate

Informants were unanimous that the tourism industry experienced an unprecedented poaching and decimation of wildlife on an industrial scale in the period post WWII, which was a cause of concern as it sends shockwaves on the tourism marketplace. The situation is grim in emerging markets mostly Africa.

Respondents were unanimous that the tide needed to be tamed as it was threatening the very foundation of tourism hence putting the future of the tourism sector at stake. The above sad state of affairs in emerging tourist regions fed into a post WWII tension increasingly mounting between the global south and global north on the emotive issue of trophy hunting, which falls under the auspices of CITES. Another respondent seemed to indicate that trophy hunting was more relevant to Africa given that the region’s tourism industry is anchored on wildlife. It was interesting to note that the draw card of emerging markets’ tourism industry was now at the centre of the contemporary global stand-off pitting the global north against the global south. Perspectives from Africa show that the region is much concerned about the power play on over-regulation, embargoing trophy hunting, and preservation of such wildlife in light of limited budgets characterising most African countries. Ironically the consumers of Africa’s trophy hunting products are tourists who come from the global north who are lobbying for a total ban. This creates an awkward position for Africa.

What this implies to Africa is that the region has to adjust and endeavour to co-exist with the global tourism family in the sense that if the region pulls out of CITES it risks a serious backlash from partakers of wildlife experiences. The current state of the tourism industry has been predicated on the huge wildlife resource base sprinkled across the breadth and length of tourist regions. However, post WWII upheavals in the wildlife sector characterised by increased poaching, alienation of local communities’ rights to the utilisation of wildlife resources, blanket imposition of a moratorium on trophy hunting and a plethora of other issues are set to continue fuelling a bruising contestation regarding the sustainable use of wildlife in the broader context of tourism development (Mkono 2018 ). Consensus on how the contentious and divisive trophy hunting issue should be handled to the full satisfaction of all CITES members and secure the sustainable future development of the tourism industry is still a challenge. Whilst emerging tourist regions like Africa feel hard done by CITES stance, with sentiments indicating that the issue seriously undermine wildlife conservation efforts, and ultimately the tourism experiences in nature parks and conservancies, it is critical to have a holistically approach on the issue.

Indeed, exotic tourism regions like Africa are well known for their pristine wildlife sanctuaries where tourists encounter with nature. World-wide the tourism phenomenon has been driven by flora and fauna, however given the increasing rate at which poaching and depletion of wildlife resources are happening, CITES justifiably came on the scene to regulate the use of wildlife within the tenets of sustainable tourism. To this effect CITES outlawed trophy hunting which arguably used to generate funds for the conservation and management of wildlife resources especially in emerging markets like Africa and Asia–Pacific. Subsequently, there has been a raging debate on trophy hunting which has divided global opinion. The future of the global tourism hinges on the reform of CITES’s stance on trophy hunting. Arguments proffered mostly by the emerging markets revolve around the urgent for a review of trophy hunting ban to avoid what they claim an impending wildlife catastrophe since the wildlife population has ballooned to unsustainable levels as a result of a moratorium imposed on trophy hunting. Yet on the other side of the spectrum, the global north is advancing the argument that a ban on trophy hunting should remain in force into the foreseeable future. The stalemate would definitely impact on global tourism trends and patterns, more so on Africa in a negative way.

Trophy hunting has thus become a delicate matter in the international tourism discourse since it can rally nation states towards the conservation of wildlife resources which are the bedrock of the tourism sector. Trophy hunting is a topical issue in international tourism affairs, so much that a divided global family of nations on it foments disillusionment, smacks fragmented approaches in fighting the poaching scourge and eventually lead to the decimation or a complete loss of the wildlife resource which is a key driver of the sector. Global consensus on trophy hunting and the way forward between the global south and north will define the new course of tourism growth in the foreseeable future. Without wildlife resources there is no tourism sector to talk about hence this is critical at this juncture. Poaching remains the greatest threat to the integrity of natural sites globally.

Terrorism and interconnectedness of the globe

Results showed that in the contemporary globalised village, emerging tourist destinations like Africa are no longer immune to the scourge of terrorism that traditionally was more pronounced in the western countries and North America. However, respondents indicated that Africa is increasingly becoming a target of terrorist, citing an example of Kenya in East Africa; Tunisia in North Africa. What it therefore implies is that it can no longer be business as usual but in essence emerging markets should start investing in ports of entry screening technologies and reviewing visa regimes with a view of strengthening security protocols.

Safety of international tourists is of paramount importance, hence this should be guaranteed. Future global tourism trends will be defined and influenced by the safety records of tourist regions, as well as their response systems to terrorist attacks. This finding corroborates Paraskevasa and Arendell ( 2007 ), Hoffman ( 1998 ) and Chalk ( 1997 ) who established that tourists rank safety and security highly when choosing vacation holiday. Given the ever increasing rate at which conflicts are erupting in emerging markets in particular and at global level in general as a result of the increasing chasm between the rich and poor, it is important that tourist regions reflect deeply on terrorism threats and the instability it poses to the development and growth of the international tourism industry. It is apparent that transnational tourism organisation like the UNWTO and WTTC quickly issue out advisories dissuading potential tourists from visiting destinations prone to terrorist activities, as they value the safety and security of vacationers. While at face value this may sound akin to destination de-marketing, tourists’ safety and security is of utmost priority. The burden lies with destinations to ensure the safety of visitors. Peace and security at tourist destinations would remain the single most important factor to guide tourism development going into the future. Globally, as revealed above, the security situation remains precarious, impacting negatively on tourism growth projections.

With such a remarkable shift, it therefore calls for a coordinated global approach in the fight against terrorism, a serious threat to tourism, which has become a global menace embedded in a modern society characterised by extremes of rich and poor in both the developed and the underdeveloped countries. Terrorism has been targeting popular tourism spaces, and given the lack lustre security systems in place in emerging markets there is need for collaborative efforts to tame the wave of terrorism in order to create a better world where tourism can thrive. Africa should realise that the interconnectedness of nation states celebrated under the auspices of a global village has opened up countries to global risks and vulnerabilities like terrorism, contagious diseases, for example, Covd-19 virus. This has huge implication on tourist regions’ immigration and border control issues, visa regimes, health issues with far reaching consequences for Africa’s tourism sector. Taken together, these issues are at the centre of curtailing the free flow of tourists. Emerging tourist destinations are in a dilemma on whether they should opt for a protectionist-cautious stance in terms of the free flow of people or a more liberal approach. Perspectives from Africa hold that improving security is a challenge, especially creating a more seamless experience and staying ahead of evolving threats is a true test facing the sector in the period post 2020; balancing the traveller’s safety with traveller experience will continue to define the challenge into the foreseeable future.

Respondents confirmed that as tourist spaces in exotic destinations become more popular with millions of tourists trouping, it becomes apparent that tourists are increasingly becoming easy targets of terrorism. The implication for emerging markets like Africa is that terrorism is now ubiquitous, as illustrated by a spike in terrorist incidences. Given the ever widening chasm between the political elites and the poor, fundamental different religious views and political opinions, these are fuelling terrorism irrespective of geographical location. Since time immemorial, tourism has been known as a peace sector. Another perspective is that whilst the end of WWII was generally interpreted as marking the dawn of political peace at global level and was hailed as a seed bed to nurture tourism development, it is increasingly being realised it was an illusion. To date global peace is becoming elusive because of indiscriminate acts of terrorism. Given the global publicity and media attention attendant to terrorist attacks on tourist destinations, the scourge dents the tourism phenomenon, especially for emerging tourism destinations whose safety and security systems are regarded as weak or inadequate. Indeed, the tourism phenomenon has been known to be resilient but the negative publicity associated with terrorist attacks adversely affect tourism trends and patterns. Terrorism has the potential to destroy tourism overnight despite its gigantic size.

The present day society is become heavily infested with terrorist groups who are increasingly targeting, attacking, kidnapping and killing international tourists (Stafford et al. 2002 ). Adeloye and Carr ( 2019 ) argue that terrorist attacks on tourists serve as unpleasant reminders of how fragile and vulnerable the tourism industry is to terrorism. The UNWTO ( 2018a , b ) advocates for tourist destinations to be proactive and institute quick response or rescue strategies in the aftermath of an attack. Alongside this, tourist destinations should have in place destination recovery plans and marketing strategies to restore market confidence in the post attack period. Terrorism influences tourists’ perceptions of risk and their resultant travel decisions.

In the twenty-first century the notorious terrorist groups threatening world peace and stability are the Islamic State, Hamas, Hezbollah, Boko Haram, Taliban, Al-Queda, and Al-Shabaab to mention a few. The tourism sector, economic growth and development of countries can be seriously threatened if tourist destinations increasingly become scenes of terrorist attacks. To this effect, tourist destinations need to invest in security protocols, which would put them in a stead to recover in a faster manner, provided the protocols are well created and implemented correctly (World Economic Forum 2015 ). Crisis protocols, recovery strategies, and strong emergency plans are indispensible for tourist destinations to recover fast and should become buzz words in future tourism development trajectories. Despite the resilience of the tourism sector, recurrent incidents of violence and terrorism at global level, increased insecurity and safety of tourists, as well as ruined perceptions deter potential tourists from fully and freely partaking in tourism. The scourge of terrorism imposes restrictions to visiting tourist destinations prone to attacks, henceforth matters of tourist safety and security are very critical when it comes to the future of the tourism industry.

Terrorism makes the tourism sector vulnerable and fragile making its future growth prediction uncertain (Abadie and Gardeazabal 2003 ). Conventional literature show that terrorism disrupts the entire tourism value chain where upon key stakeholders like travel agents would not actively promote tourist destinations perceived as being unsafe. Terrorist attacks have continually degraded and undermined the popularity of tourist destinations. In the aftermath of terrorist attacks, the tourism industry experiences significant down turn, the kidnapping of tourists by terrorist’s network groups also frightens tourists away.

From Africa’s viewpoint, terrorism’s effects on tourism are multi-faceted: a decrease in the number of tourist arrivals, reduction in FDI, cost of reconstruction of tourist facilities, safety and security upgrades costs, and increased marketing costs to attract visitors. This is in line with what was established by Barth et al. ( 2006 ) that there is a very strong connection between terrorism and tourism, tourist sites which are targeted by terrorists have their social order and economic stability greatly shaken. The tourism sector is increasingly becoming a target of terrorists; the resonance being that the tourism sector is the main source of income of many countries, so by damaging it the core function of the economic basis of the nation stops working, destroying tourism attractions is the best way for the terrorists to get their message delivered through-out media coverage, thus getting the attention they need, and the tourism sector has not focused on security matters (Tarlow 2003 ). Tarlow ( 2003 ) emphasise that security plus service and value for money will become the basis for twenty-first century services. Terrorism encompasses the murder of high profile journalists, and media personalities which are covered by the international media contributing to the negative image of tourist destinations. Potential tourists see such cases as indicators of lack of safety; this also shows that the security system at global level is fragmented and not sufficient to ensure the security of citizens. Threats on global peace will remain a major issue hampering tourism growth, and stifle tourist destinations to realise full potential for foreign visitors and under utilisation of tourist attractions. In the absence of safety and security, tourism will not flourish. The effects of terrorism have destroyed tourist destinations brands in the tourism market.

Conclusion and recommendations

In conclusion, the current study contributes to literature by investigating the global tourism industry dynamics and their implications to emerging tourist destinations. The study examined fundamental shifts characterising the global tourism landscape since the end of WW2. These were identified as the formation of BRICS countries, ageing population, trophy hunting debate and terrorism. At the inception of tourism, boom factors influenced the growth of the industry, driven by the G7 member countries, however, as time went by, emerging markets increasingly became more significant, largely driven by the BRICS. Contemporary tourism dynamics framed as the constructs of BRICS, trophy hunting, ageing population and terrorism have been applied simultaneously to establish the extent to which they are impacting tourism growth projections from the perspectives of emerging markets. These have impacted on the trends of international tourism in a profound way. It is apparent that emerging markets are now in the front foot dictating the pace of tourism development. In light of such fundamental shifts, it is recommended that tourist destinations recalibrate their tourism product offerings so that they reflect the contemporary market dynamics. On the investment front, the emerging markets represent the future of the tourism sector, and finally in light of the devastating effects of terrorism, emerging tourist destinations should refine their terror responsive strategies.

Apart from the above, another area in need of attention is policy reform, in which immigration regulations and visa regimes should be constantly revised to strike a balance between screening travellers, balancing liberalising and softening the border control formalities to allow free flow of traffic but without compromising on the security and safety matters of tourists. Finally, marketing and promotion efforts need to be directed and focused on emerging markets and less on mature tourist regions since the former represent the future of the global tourism industry. This study therefore made a contribution in the specific areas of emerging markets, tourism senior market, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), and terrorism as key aspects that can make or break the global tourism industry in the twenty-first century.

This research responded to the need for continuous research on Africa’s tourism sector and situate it in the global tourism industry (Naude and Saayman 2005 ; Christie and Crompton 2001 ; Rogerson and Visser 2011 ; Dieke 2013 ). To the best of the writer’s knowledge, this study presents new knowledge from an emerging tourist region context regarding the dynamics obtaining in the global tourism environment and their subsequent implications. The current study was done in the context of Africa an emerging tourist region, with a less influential influence in the international tourism stage. Therefore, this study provides a significant addition to literature currently dominated by insights and perspectives from advanced societies like western tourism markets.

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Zhou, Z. Critical shifts in the global tourism industry: perspectives from Africa. GeoJournal 87 , 1245–1264 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-020-10297-y

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November 1, 2022

What are the Biggest Challenges of Sustainable Tourism Today?

Tourism has experienced immense changes in the recent past. The COVID-19 pandemic and travel restrictions of 2020 and 2021 made the last three years very challenging. Now that we are rapidly unravelling the post-pandemic era, there is hope for a rapid shift toward sustainable tourism, but the industry still faces numerous challenges. What are these challenges? How can destinations and businesses address them? Whether you own/run a hotel, travel agency or planning to start one, this post highlights some of these biggest challenges. We also highlight the best answers to the challenges.

A Brief History of Sustainable Tourism 

To appreciate the challenges facing sustainable tourism , it is prudent to go back to the beginning and look at its definition. 

Sustainable tourism, according to the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) , is the development that meets the needs of present tourists, businesses, and regions involved while protecting and promoting opportunities for the future. It focuses on managing the resources in a manner that social, economic, and aesthetic needs are achieved without compromising essential ecological processes, cultural integrity , life support, and biodiversity. 

Between 1995 and 2020, tourism growth reached 25%, and it now accounts for approximately 10% of the global economic activity. Before COVID-19 struck in 2020, tourism arrivals had reached a peak of 900 million. In 2022, the numbers have gained momentum, but it has also become a major threat to biological diversity at all levels. As we are going to see shortly, threats such as overcrowding and excessive waste are already threatening to tear fragile ecosystems apart. 

As the list of challenges facing ecotourism grows, it only indicates why urgent solutions are required. This is why every industry player should be involved to try and cut down travel carbon footprint and take tourism to the next level.  

Challenges for Sustainable Tourism Today

There are many challenges facing sustainable tourism today, threatening to reverse the gains achieved over the last few decades. Let’s highlight them: 

Poor Understanding of the Concept of Sustainability

The biggest threat to sustainable tourism is a poor understanding of the concept. Although it has been around for some time, the idea of sustainable tourism still looks pretty complex to many players in the hospitality industry. This is why most of them consider it an additional cost and opt to forego it to optimise profitability. For example, efforts such as replacing energy-intensive lighting with more efficient models appear expensive, but the truth is that they help to cut down the overall cost and reduce travel carbon footprint in the long term.

Failure to understand the concept of sustainability implies that the hotel industry is unable to take advantage of available opportunities. For example, failure to improve the environment and communities around a hotel is likely to lower the sustainability rating of a facility. For your facility to be considered a green hotel, it should factor in all three areas of sustainability, including environmental, social, and governance (ESG). 

Greenwashing 

Today, guests and visitors looking forward to having a unique experience or holiday prefer green hotels because they are more sustainable. However, some hospitality facilities present themselves as sustainable, whereas they are not. This is known as greenwashing and it is a great threat because it discourages others who are focused on operating sustainably. 

The most common form of greenwashing is failing to factor in all impacts of a hotel’s operations. If your company has adopted strategies to cut down travel carbon footprint only in its facilities, this might not be enough to claim it has hit zero carbon emissions. To correctly present your travel carbon footprint , you have to look at the extended supply chain. For example, are the suppliers of your hotel having high rates of emission to produce what you need? 

Large Amounts of Waste Released into the Environment 

Like other organisations, hotels release a lot of waste into the environment. Once in the environment, these wastes rapidly damage different components, from polluting water resources to choking ecological systems . For example, approximately eight million tonnes of plastic find their way into the oceans per year. These are from water bottles, gloves, packaging materials, and packaging containers. 

The main challenge with plastic waste is that they clog the water systems, damage spawning sites for fish, and easily result in fatalities when ingested. They also damage the aesthetic appeal of beaches and other visitor sites.  

In addition to plastic, organic waste presents a huge challenge to sustainable tourism . The bulk of this comes from materials used to prepare delicacies and food remains. Although they are decomposable, many of them are dumped in open dumpsites, wilderness, and forests. The problem becomes worse when the organics are combined with harmful chemicals that poison flora and fauna. 

High Energy Consumption 

To run a hotel or motel, almost every aspect requires electricity and energy. From the gym to the kitchen and guest rooms, hotels use a lot of energy to ensure that guests are comfortable. However, the high levels of energy consumption can quickly raise the travel carbon footprint and compromise sustainability efforts. 

High energy consumption also means that you will be getting more power-related bills. This will not only eat into the hotel's profits but could also get your business into conflict with the law. For example, most governments have installed laws and policies to help cut down emissions and match the UN's target of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Therefore, you can be penalised for not following these policies or have the licence cancelled. 

High Consumption of Water 

Although about 70% of the earth is made of water, only about 3% is fresh. Indeed, way less than that is available for human use because the bulk of it is locked in glaciers. This is why conserving water is very important for all parties. In the hospitality industry , about 150 gallons of water are wasted per day by each guestroom. This high rate of water consumption means that the hotel industry is adding to the current precarious situation, where about two billion people do not have access to clean water globally. 

Working in Silos 

One crucial thing about sustainability is that it requires all parties to work in cooperation. However, players in the hospitality industry operate in silos, making it a serious threat to success. When working alone, it is almost impossible to make any significant progress on matters of sustainability. This problem comes from: 

• Direct competition from other threats.
• Fear of sharing important information with other stakeholders: 
• Limited focus on matters of sustainable 

Missing the Sense of Urgency in Addressing ESG Challenges 

Most hospitality facilities , like other businesses, are busy working on ways to grow profits and expand globally. As a result, some players do not see the urgency of addressing the challenges for sustainability. This is a major challenge because failure to improve the environment, such as parks and biodiversity, could result in reduced visitor numbers to your region, country, or facility. 

Solutions for Challenges Facing Sustainable Tourism

Now that we have listed most of the challenges facing sustainable tourism, the next question is, "what are the solutions?" The good thing is that there is a long list of things that you can do to not only improve your hotel's sustainability rating but also help make the planet a better place for all. 

One of the most recommended methods is improving the energy efficiency of your facility. Green hotels today are using CONTINEWM nets to cut down energy use in their HVAC systems. This is a device that improves efficiency of a HVAC system by clearing positive electrostatic charges that cause resistance to air flow. CONTINEWM is installed on the front part of the HVAC's heat exchanger. The device is affordable, easy to install, and can reduce AC bill by up to 25% on average.

Other solutions for addressing the challenges to sustainable tourism include: 

• Adopting a good sustainability plan for your facility which helps define clear goals for your hotel and partners. 
• Making sure to include parties in your supply chain for greater impacts from your sustainability efforts.  
• Partner with international organisations, such as Climate Fresk , for assistance with capacity building. The organisations have experts in matters of sustainability, and you can count on them to cut down your travel carbon footprint. 
• Support the local community’s initiatives, such as cultural events. This can help to make them part of sustainable tourism so that they can also benefit. You should also consider sourcing some of the materials, such as food, from them. 
• Support the development of legislation that promotes green hotels. This is crucial in ensuring that all hotels and players follow the same guidelines and principles for growth. 
• Encourage the adoption of sustainable tourism education at all levels of education. This can help to demonstrate the importance of protecting our planet so that more parties are involved. When taught from an early age, sustainability can become a stronger pillar to reduce the danger of further damage to the planet. 

In this post, we have highlighted the major challenges facing sustainable tourism . They have proved to be serious threats not just to the tourism industry but to almost every enterprise out there. This is why every party should be involved. The solutions we have listed above can help investors to cut down their travel carbon footprint and improve the sustainability rating of green hotels. Remember that sustainability is a progressive journey where every achievement becomes a support for the next action. 

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• PLANET POSSIBLE

Should some of the world’s endangered places be off-limits to tourists?

Experts weigh in on what can be done to mitigate overtourism.

Habitat loss, overtourism, and the consequences of climate change have put more and more travel destinations at peril, even as the pandemic’s forced shutdowns gave once tourist-trampled places a breather.

This prompted us to ask our newsletter subscribers and Facebook followers the question: “Should there be places on Earth that are closed off to visitation? Should the wilderness be restricted in some way?”

Responses swamped our inbox, with most making arguments for limiting tourism. “The last few decades have taught us so much about what happens to wild places when people trample them,” wrote Margaret Cervarich, pointing to the trash pileup at Everest base camp.

“Many pristine and protected areas should be off-limits to humans completely, in my opinion. And a carefully evaluated few should be allowed for scientific studies,” wrote Charlisa Cato. Several, including Alper Takci, felt the limitations need to go further: “We should seal the whole planet off to humans.”

Indeed, some places have closed to travelers temporarily, including Iceland ’s Fjaðrárgljúfur Canyon— made viral in a Justin Bieber video. Maya Bay, in Thailand’s Phi Phi archipelago, was overrun and its coral destroyed following the 2000 movie The Beach with Leonardo di Caprio. The beach, which has been closed since 2018, may soon reopen under stricter conditions. Other destinations have banned specific activities: In Hawaii , a new law   goes into effect on October 28 prohibiting swimming with spinner dolphins.

We put the same question to the experts. Most agreed that locking places away from people is not the answer. “I am opposed to the idea that you would, at face value, ban tourism to fragile places,” says Jeremy Sampson, of the UK-based Travel Foundation , a nonprofit working to improve the tourism industry. “The fact is that certain kinds of tourism can help protect natural resources or preserve heritage.”

Strategies to ease overcrowding

There are many cases where interventions have helped to mitigate overcrowding. Last July, Italy banned large cruise ships from entering Venice ’s waters and declared the city’s lagoon a national monument. Bhutan has for decades pursued a “ high-value, low-volume ” strategy, with prices only luxury travelers can afford, while investing in the preservation of nature and culture. Some destinations—including Amsterdam —have all but stopped actively marketing the city to tourists, switching objectives from “destination promotion” to “destination management” for the welfare of locals.

“We have many examples of visitor management systems that work to limit visitation in vulnerable places,” says Greg Klassen, a tourism strategist based in Vancouver. “For example, many national parks have areas open to visitors by first-come, first-served, lottery systems.”

Such measures have been gaining traction. In 2017, Peru limited access to Machu Picchu to two timed entries each day and restricted travelers to specific trails. Some of the new, stricter pandemic-era restrictions—visitors having to buy tickets for specific hours rather than half-day blocks, for example—will likely be permanent. In the U.S., Rocky Mountain and Yosemite National Parks recently introduced a timed-entry permit system to manage pandemic crowds. While temporary, they point to potential strategies for reducing congestion in the future.

( Can overtourism be made sustainable? )

Timed entry and lottery systems were also suggested by reader Wayne Woodman, who wrote, “I think a lot of our wilderness and national parks are being overwhelmed and need to be restricted. So yes. I would favor stringent controls with access based on a lottery basis so as not to restrict those less fortunate.”

Yet, lines and lotteries won’t solve everything. “It’s not just about the math. People always want to introduce a carrying capacity, and I think it’s just too simplistic. There could be other more nuanced solutions,” says Sampson. One idea is to make visitors promise to behave better. In recent years, destinations such as Iceland, New Zealand, Haida Gwaii , and the island of Hawaii have asked tourists to sign visitor pledges on or before arrival. The wording varies, but most ask visitors to tread lightly, protect nature, and respect the culture.

“Most visitors to Palau were not aware of what constituted reasonable behavior,” notes Klassen, who helped develop the Pacific country’s pledge. “A marine protected area covers the entire archipelago, yet visitors were taking home coral from the reefs, leaving debris and garbage behind, and in some cases behaving badly.”

The pledge outlines what visitors should and shouldn’t do (“Don’t collect marine life souvenirs . Do learn about the culture and people,” and unlike others, this one is enforced with fines of up to $1 million. “Even in places where they are voluntary, pledges still provide a level of education and commitment—even modest changes to visitor behavior can be helpful,” adds Klassen.

Growing a conservation economy

In some places, particularly in Africa , strictly controlled tourism is key to wildlife conservation, and its income is vital to residents who might otherwise resort to extractive industries to survive.

“In Rwanda , high-value tourism permits generate over $18 million per year, contributing to the repopulation of gorillas from a mere 254 in 1981 to 600 in 2019,” notes Tiffany Misrahi, vice-president of policy and research for the World Travel and Tourism Council.

Tourism is therefore crucial to the preservation of these wild places. “If these forgotten forests in the heart of Africa are not connected to the people of the world,” says Praveen Moman, founder of Volcanoes Safaris , which for 25 years has been bringing limited numbers of guests to Uganda and Rwanda to view mountain gorillas and chimpanzees, “there’s a very big danger that they could disappear altogether.”

Often left out of the conversation are the world’s Indigenous peoples— the ones who have kept the planet in balance for millennia.

“You can take a map of the environmental hotspots around the world and lay over it a second map of culturally endangered places, where indigenous peoples and their languages and traditions are struggling to survive. They are almost identical,” says Elizabeth Kapu’uwailani Lindsey , a Polynesian filmmaker, anthropologist, and National Geographic Explorer.

( Skip the crowds and visit these hidden gems instead. )

“So when we talk about place, we must also talk about people. We need the wisdom of those who have stewarded the land for thousands of years. We need to learn from them and nurture our own interconnectedness with the natural world.”

In Canada , on the coastal fjords of British Columbia , within the Great Bear Rainforest, lies a swath of land the size of Ireland that protects thousand-year-old trees and the rarest bear in the world. Within it, Spirit Bear Lodge —owned and operated by the Kitasoo Xai’xais Nation—welcomes visitors from all over the world whose dollars revitalize local communities and fund further conservation, including a successful effort to stop bear hunts.

“The elders always say, ‘What we have here is not ours, we’re just holding it for the next generations,’ and that’s really important in everything we do,” says Douglas Neasloss, chief councilor of the Kitasoo Xai’xais Nation. “The community has made clear it’s not just about money but about the future. We’ve been able to revitalize our culture and create a sustainable business model where we’re not pulling out a fish or cutting down a tree.”

To help connect social and conservation enterprises to travelers who might otherwise converge on the same fragile sites, the country of Jordan , along with the nonprofit Tourism Cares, created a “meaningful travel map” of the country. It pinpoints 12 experiences that tread lightly, disperse travelers, and have a big community impact. The program has been so successful that a similar map is planned for Colombia .

Closing off places to visitors should perhaps be left as the last resort, and some respondents to our original question agreed. “In order for endangered places to be preserved, there must be a minimum number of people allowed to wonder at and be fascinated by them,” wrote Ebrahim Hamad. “People will not protect what they do not know.”

Starting with the end in mind

Another idea: Build a destination from the ground up. Rising up in Saudi Arabia ’s coastal desert on the Red Sea , in an area the size of Belgium, is a city-to-be called Neom. Plans call for the preservation of 95 percent of nature, “with zero cars, zero streets, and zero carbon emissions.”

“It’s one of the first destinations in the world entirely driven by regenerative tourism principles,” says Paul Marshall, Neom’s chief environment officer. The destination plans to use technology to transform the way people engage with nature and conservation, instead of channeling them into a visitors center.

“We want to have an inside-out visitors center using technology such as AR/VR to project [an image] while people are outside in nature,” says Marshall. “This won’t be nature pretending to be in a building; this will be educational information projected onto the real landscape.”

There are other technology applications. Just as Instagram and other social media contribute to the destruction of fragile places as copycats follow influencers to places “for the ‘gram,” some are using the same methods to reverse the damage.

The Leave No Trace organization, along with destinations such as Jackson Hole , encourages travelers to use generic rather than specific geotags to reduce the chances of a specific site being overrun. And the virtual reality that kept travelers “traveling” to destinations during the pandemic could be easily deployed to ease the burden on fragile destinations. France’s famous Lascaux caves , closed since 1963, has been sharing the site’s remarkable prehistoric art through a replica cave, a high-tech traveling exhibition, and virtual tours on its website.

“Achieving a future that allows access to places without harming them is no easy task. Individuals mean well... but have you ever found a group of people who absolutely agree on everything?” asks reader Barbara Cool. Perhaps not, but it’s crucial that we act.

“The question we should really be asking is how can travel be used as a tool to solve these global problems? Because it can,” says Sampson.

HOW YOU CAN HELP

While on-the-go, keep in mind  these ways to travel sustainably . Avoid traveling to overtouristed places when you can. Mitigate crowding at fragile areas when you use social media. The Leave No Trace organization , along with some destinations, encourage travelers to use generic rather than specific geotags to reduce the chances of a specific site being overrun. If traveling to destinations such as Iceland, New Zealand , Haida Gwaii , and the island of Hawaii  be sure to sign and adhere to visitor pledges to tread lightly, protect nature, and respect culture.

Norie Quintos  writes and blogs about the world of travel from a cultural perspective. Find her on Twitter.

Related Topics

• SUSTAINABLE TOURISM
• SUSTAINABILITY
• OVERTOURISM
• CITIZEN SCIENCE

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Regional Collaboration Key to Recovery of Fragile Tourism Industry say UNDP and CDB

December 1, 2021.

Regional collaboration is vital for the continued recovery of the region and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean has recently formalised a partnership with the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) which will support Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in the tourism sector to recover and build forward faster from the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the fragile regional industry.

The support is in the form of capacity-building assistance in digitization comprising of open training, mentorship, one-to-one technical assistance and training of trainers. This is in line with the UNDP Future Tourism Projec t which began earlier this year and has seen 187 delegates fully complete the first round of training.

“As we continue the process of retooling MSMEs, digitization becomes a necessary next step in a more contactless world,” Valerie Cliff, Resident Representative UNDP Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean noted. “We need to leverage the various resources of the region and work together to build forward better as we rethink the way businesses operate in the Caribbean. For lasting change, regional collaboration is key.” She added, highlighting the importance of regional development agencies to collaborate on projects for the region’s collective good.

“The FUTURE-Tourism project was developed out of a need to adapt to the new post-COVID-19 environment and to build more resilient economic sectors. With our agreement with CDB, the project will enhance the region’s collective digital marketplace which will, in turn, build resilience for smaller operators who were directly impacted by COVID-19 restrictions, curfews and reduced capacities of establishments."

Also speaking on the collaboration, Lisa Harding, Coordinator, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise Development at CDB, stated, “CDB is delighted to collaborate with UNDP on this timely and important project which is aligned with the Bank’s continued efforts to pursue interventions aimed at strengthening the operational and technical capacity of MSMEs through digitization. The support to tourism related MSMEs is critical at this time, as they endeavour to implement new or adapt existing operational systems to sustain operations and enhance competitiveness within the current challenging technological business environment.”

The Future Tourism project aims to help governments identify and implement tourism revitalisation strategies as well as provide technical and financial support to MSMEs. Additionally, the project seeks to contribute to hastening economic recovery and the sustainable development of the region’s tourism sector by financially supporting the digitally enabled transformation of the business processes and value chains of MSMEs. With UNDP’s partnership with CDB, phase three of the project will allocate USD700,000 to 150 MSME beneficiaries providing the necessary support needed for them to become fully operational in a virtual marketplace.

At this time when exogenous threats like COVID-19 and natural disasters are impacting the region, it is vital that developmental efforts are continued to reinforce the need for regional resilience and building forward better. Leveraging partnerships is part of the work of UNDP Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean in its commitment to promoting economic diversification, job creation and resilience with the " Blue Economy for Green Islands " vision. As the Caribbean continues to seek solutions to support traditionally vulnerable groups, UNDP Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean, in partnership with governments and stakeholders, remains dedicated to the advancement of inclusive and sustainable development throughout the region and building resilient communities that can withstand shocks and crises through targeted projects and programmes. 

UNDP is the leading United Nations organisation fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated lasting solutions for people and planet. Learn more at www.bb.undp.org or follow at @UNDPBarbados

The Caribbean Development Bank is a regional financial institution established in 1970 for the purpose of contributing to the harmonious economic growth and development of its Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs). In addition to the 19 BMCs, CDB’s membership includes four regional non-borrowing members – Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela and five non-regional, non-borrowing members; i.e., Canada, China, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. CDB’s total assets as at December 31, 2019 stood at US$ 3.59 billion (bn). These include US$2.1 bn of Ordinary Capital Resources and US$1.49 bn of Special Funds Resources. The Bank is rated Aa1 Stable with Moody’s, AA+ Stable with Standard & Poor’s and AA+ Stable with FitchRatings. Read more at caribank.org .

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Hospitality and tourism industry amid COVID-19 pandemic: Perspectives on challenges and learnings from India

Vikrant kaushal.

a Indian Institute of Management Sirmaur Poanta Sahib, Himachal Pradesh, India

Sidharth Srivastava

b Banarsidas Chandiwala Institute of Hotel Management & Catering Technology, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi, India

COVID-19 outbreak has presented unprecedented circumstances before the fragile tourism and hospitality industry. The highly infectious novel coronavirus continues to thwart the sector and raises serious questions about the present and future survival of the sector. The research addresses two important concerns, first, pertains to the major challenges that hospitality and tourism industry faces amid current conditions; and second relates to the vital learnings for the industry. The study draws on the interviews with 15 participants in senior positions in hospitality industry, and tourism and hospitality education services. Responses to the interviews were content analysed, which resulted in 27 sub-themes that were further condensed into 4 major themes. The dominant sub-themes that emerged out of the qualitative enquiry included need of multiskilling and professional development of the employees, increased sense of hygiene, sanitation and related SOPs, optimism toward revival of the industry, media roles, and need of better crisis preparedness. Subsequent overarching themes included “Human Resource Management”, “Health and Hygiene”, “Continuity” and “Concerns”. The study critically discusses prominent themes in the light of the existing arguments from the literature and reflects on implications for the decision makers. The major implications of the study are in the form of determined themes adding to the evolving theory on COVID-19 pandemic and tourism & hospitality industry; and managerial recommendations to address host of issues while taking essential learnings stemming from the current circumstances. Limitations and scope of future research are also discussed.

1. Introduction

The decade 2020 started with a much unsettling and unfortunate occurrence of new disease in the line of over 30 novel infections that the world has experienced in past 30 years ( Nkengasong, 2020 ). This time the nomenclature given to the new severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was the novel corona virus. Later termed COVID-19, the disease represented an atypical pneumonia that started in China, and later spread across nations’ the world over. Countries like United States of America, Brazil, India, Italy, Spain, France, South Korea, Italy, Iran and many more are experiencing unprecedented spread of the disease and life loss from past several months.

The impact of current corona virus outbreak till date has long surpassed those that were observed during SARS epidemic in 2002−2003. Corona virus cases stand at over 10 million worldwide and the reported deaths due to the infection have crossed 500,000 ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ). The enormity of this outbreak can be imagined from the fact that even the leaders and prominent people couldn’t escape from the infection, for instance the virus infected British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who had earlier warned citizens of the United Kingdom to prepare for the potential loss of lives in the country.

Akin to COVID 19, the previous SARS outbreak was characterized by its rapid spread, which led to travel advisories issued by World Health Organisation (WHO) ( Chuo, 2007 ). Travel restrictions and advisories have again revealed the vulnerability of the tourism and hospitality industry ( De Sausmarez, 2004 ; Zhang et al., 2020 ). The isolation of a cruise ship in Japan carrying virus infected tourists marked only the beginning of latest tragedy that still continues to unfold. The outbreak brought fears among unsuspecting tourists who had to quarantine themselves while on board. The infections and deaths on board portended the future of delicate tourism and hospitality industry across the globe. Till date researches have prominently pointed at previous SARS outbreak (2002), whenever discussion on threat (health crises) to tourism and hospitality industry was discussed (see for example Table 1 ). However, this time onwards, COVID-19 pandemic is likely to become a prominent reference point in the related texts.

Review summary of relevant studies.

Tourism and hospitality industry thrives on the patterns of visitations and a considerable efforts are placed by decision makers to attract visitors to support the sector and enhance the multiplier effect from the industry. But due to the ongoing situation travel restrictions are being observed at national and international levels. These travel bans, border closures, events cancellations, quarantine requirements and fear of spread, have placed extreme challenges on tourism and hospitality sectors ( Gössling et al., 2020a , b ). Air travel, for instance, has been regarded as an amplifying and accelerating factor for influenza ( Browne et al., 2016 ) and this segment has witnessed significant curtailments as the need of personal safety and survival has become pivotal ( Nicola et al., 2020 ). It has also prominently reduced the need for leisure travel and search for hedonistic getaways. Despite the enormous blow, the sector is salvaging resources and ways to remain afloat for now, be it sturdier negotiations with suppliers for mutual sustenance, extensive cost reduction practices, or minimum mandatory period for accommodation bookings when visiting tourism destinations. Correspondingly, accommodation providers have extended support, mostly at some price, for those needing isolation during quarantine period and to those who are involved in treating COVID patients and cannot return to their usual place of residence. These initiatives, for now, indicate the ad hoc coping mechanisms adopted by the industry and appear to remain in place until some stability is attained.

As the situation unfolds, the extant knowledge mostly remains in the form of health and safety related literature. Tourism and hospitality related studies in light of COVID-19 crisis are only starting to emerge at this point ( Higgins-Desbiolles, 2020 ; Hoque et al., 2020 ; Gössling et al., 2020a , b ; Zheng et al., 2020 ). The research addresses two vital questions, first, what remains major challenges facing hospitality and tourism sectors amid existing pandemic? Second, what are the key learnings that industry can take from current conditions? Further, given the constantly evolving state and dearth of literature, current study attempts to summate the extant knowledge from previous similar crises and substantiates it with the qualitative enquiry involving senior industry practitioners and academicians.

The study holds relevance for the industry actors and decision makers as they face crucial task of reviving and sustaining enterprises and industry at large. It is imperative that viewpoints of key individuals are investigated for guiding others who are engaged in managing and observing this segment. The paper first apprises readers about the ongoing pandemic and goes on to summarise the literature in the context of tourism and hospitality. The remainder of the paper builds upon the responses of 15 senior practitioners and academicians who reflected upon the learnings and issues emanating from the ongoing global pandemic. These emergent themes from the analysis of responses is proposed as an important contribution of the study.

2. Review of literature

Epidemiological evidences point at the outbreak to have association with a seafood market in Wuhan ( Wu et al., 2020 ; Xu et al., 2020 ), a city in Hubei province in China. The first case was reported in China (on 12 December 2020), but by the month end in January 2020, the virus had infected around two thousand people in the country ( Wu et al., 2020 ). From the probable place of origin the zoonotic transmission began and spread in countries all over the world. This became possible due to the virus’s higher tendency of getting transmitted among human population ( Bai et al., 2020 ; Gautam and Trivedi, 2020 ; Liu et al., 2020 ).

Tourism is termed as a complicated psychological process ( Cutler and Carmichael, 2010 ) and the impacts of SARS are also primarily psychological in nature ( Wen et al., 2005 ). The former SARS outbreak was spread across different countries including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Canada, Singapore and many more. In terms of the impacts of SARS on hospitality and tourism, various studies have been published (refer to Table 1 ). The tabulated review is based on the select papers that concern hospitality and tourism in the light of health crises that impacted the industry to various degrees. To that end, most relevant studies accessed through databases like Scopus, Google Scholar, Science Direct were utilised. Although the researches on varied impactful health crises in tourism and hospitality literature have been proliferating from past few decades ( Barrows et al., 1996 ; Palmer, 1988 ; Ladki, 1994 ; Smith and Goss, 1993 ), to compile the review table only select relevant studies from post-SARS period were considered.

The impacts of earlier SARS outbreak on hotels in Hong Kong were severe, so much so that the staffs’ were asked to take annual leaves, probationers and contract employees were terminated, and banks were appealed for loan repayment deferments for making way to pay for the employee salaries ( Pine and McKercher, 2004 ). Similarly, on the financial front, Chen et al. (2007) identified that Taiwanese hotel stocks performance were acutely impacted during the same outbreak that triggered panic among shareholders and confirmed extreme fragility of the hotel businesses toward epidemics and also signalled at the ominous consequences of future outbreaks. The confidence building measures among investors and minimisation of panic and uncertainty, were among some measures indicated in the study ( Chen et al., 2007 ). Dombey (2004) noted several changes that previous SARS outbreak brought about in China. This involved increased sense of hygiene at the restaurants, heightened sense of physical activities and reduction of spitting habits for healthy surroundings, regularising of temperature examination in schools and improved health services in hospitals ( Dombey, 2004 ). Malhotra and Venkatesh (2009) contrasted the preparedness for SARS outbreak between Thailand and Hong Kong, and found Hong Kong’s response to be better in containing the detrimental effects of the disease. They also accentuated on the framework proposed by Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) to address the eventualities. The framework included reduction (early warning signs detection), readiness (related preparedness), responses (operations during eventualities), and recovery (studier attempts to return to normalcy) ( Malhotra and Venkatesh, 2009 ). More recently Alonso et al. (2020) attempted to explore the issue that small enterprises in hospitality faced during the ongoing crisis and offered preliminary frameworks through inductive analysis. The exploratory work resulted in nine theoretical dimensions that revealed the actions and reactions of hospitality actors toward coping with crisis.

The current pandemic may have similar origin, however unlike earlier SARS outbreak, the impact has been profound that is still unfolding in countries like United States, Brazil and India ( Mohanty, 2020 ; Konarasinghe, 2020 ; Marques et al., 2020 ; Yeolekar et al., 2020 ). Effects of pandemic on tourism and hospitality in India are continuing to become serious with the sector embracing for higher unemployment rates. The potential job loss in tourism and hospitality has been estimated at 38 million, which is 70 percent of the industry workforce ( Radhakrishna, 2020 ). Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism & Hospitality (FAITH) has doubled the estimates of losses in India’s tourism sector from earlier INR 5 lakh Crore to INR 10 Lakh Crore ( PTI, 2020 ). The pandemic effects will be effectively visible on the country’s inbound, outbound and domestic tourism, adventure travel, business travel, and cruise holidays (Dash, 2020). Post lockdown predictions and preparations would need a better understanding of the current situation. To this end, trends like “staycations” and “workcations” are being opined by hospitality practitioners to remain dominant in near future ( Divya, 2020 ). In the light of rising corona virus infections in India, government bodies have assumed multi-layered and multi-pronged approaches, wherein government at centre invoked ‘National Disaster Management Act’ and further activated state disaster response funds for individual Indian states to tackle the rising pandemic ( Iyer, 2020 ). Aside from initial lockdowns and gradual unlocking of economic activities, public has been encouraged to ensure social distancing, practice appropriate hygiene, mask wearing and avoiding gatherings unless critically needed ( Sharma, 2020 ; Tiwari, 2020 ). For resuming tourism activities to revive the sector, governments at various levels have initiated check-ins with relevant COVID-19 negative reports, encouragement on minimum days stay at hospitality establishments ( Condé Nast Traveller, 2020 ).

The ongoing pandemic has also taken a serious toll on the education sector cross the globe. COVID-19 pandemic has affected 90 percent of the student population globally, with more than 1.5 billion students from over 190 countries are out of the schools ( https://en.unesco.org/covid19/educationresponse/globalcoalition ). The situation remains critical in the higher education as well, but the colleges are stepping up to the challenge of meeting the needs of students though online classes. It is worthwhile to mention that the sectorial education, such as tourism and hospitality that increasingly depend on practical sessions, are likely to be affected significantly. The previous SARS outbreak also placed a strong negative impact on hospitality and tourism education in Hong Kong ( Law, 2005 ). Such educational effects were felt from Mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore to even Canada ( Feast and Bretag, 2005 ). In India’s context the tourism and hospitality industry has been gaining momentum from past several years now, which has resulted in a major push to education in tourism and hospitality.

Above reflected discussion also typifies the Norris et al.’s (2008) explanation of adaptive behaviour displayed by the entities in the face of adversity. In the current context the coping mechanism for both industry and academia are important to be considered, which must include pertinent learnings and alternatives for survival amidst the pandemic and subsequent revival ( Williams and Vorley, 2014 ; Dahles & Susilowati, 2015 ). It must be noted that unlike before, current pandemic has resulted in plenty of data that can help decision makers across sectors and may assist in salvaging the lost momentum ( Kim, 2020 ; Chan, 2020 ). Current review attempted to synthesise major researches that affected the tourism and hospitality industry, while it is also important to note that a very few studies were found to have been conducted in regards to SARS outbreak in the backdrop of hospitality and tourism education. Nevertheless, a summary of select studies have been presented in Table 1 , which may be used as a reference point for future researches.

3. Research methodology

The current investigation considers an outbreak that continues to unfold while this study is underway. The situation is novel and not much is known about this ongoing and ever expanding catastrophe. In the instances of newer problems for which understanding needs to be developed, qualitative methods can offer critical insights ( Strauss and Corbin, 1998 ). Given the circumstances, it was felt appropriate to take a qualitative stance of research, in that the method of data collection was considered to be the email interviews. Email interviews are becoming a commonplace in qualitative research, and in current circumstances where social distancing has been widely practiced, it was felt to be most appropriate for the current investigation. In this way of data collection the interview questions may be pasted into the emails or separate document may be attached to the email ( Burns, 2010 ). Email interviews are also termed as cost effective when compared to the telephonic or face to face interviews, yet can yield in-depth information from the participants ( Ratislavová and Ratislav, 2014 ). In the current study with a limited sample size, judgemental sampling was used, which is a non-probability sampling. For the research problem at hand a set of senior industry personnel and academics were considered to be appropriate for garnering responses. In judgmental sampling the onus lies on the researchers to select the elements from the population based on the samples’ representation of the population of interest ( Malhotra and Birks, 2007 ). It was deemed necessary to sample individuals in senior positions, because they are met with the immediate challenge of answerability during adversities. This also restricted the sample size, yet non-probabilistic nature of sampling rendered in the selection of most suitable candidates.

The questions used in the email interviews were adapted from the reviewed literature that has underscored implications for academicians and practitioners. Some of the published works from which interview questions were derived included Bharwani and Mathews (2012) , Garg (2015) , Kim et al. (2006) , Law (2005) ; Maximiliano (2010) ; Palmer (1988) ; Wen et al. (2005) ; Yap and Ineson (2009) . The questions posed are also reported in Table 3 . One important limitation of the research methodology has been the non-reporting of the inter-coder reliability. “Intercoder reliability is mostly, if not all, assessed by having two or more coders categorize content” ( Feng, 2014 ). As in present study the coding work was done by a single researcher the same wasn’t reported.

Note: Numbers indicate times the interview responses occurred, with total specified in the last column. Broad Themes I= Human Resource Management; II= Health and Hygiene; III = Continuity; IV = Concerns.

Sample size considerations in previous qualitative inquiries in tourism and hospitality have ranged from fourteen interviews ( Phelan, 2015 ) to over thirty interviews ( Yap and Ineson, 2009 ). For the current study at the outset 42 individuals were approached for their participation in the study. Out of those approached, 15 accepted to participate, which resulted in a response rate of 35.7 percent. As the participants were in the senior positions and were mostly occupied with various tasks the intention was to reduce delays in getting reverts. To avoid such delays occasional follow-ups were carried out. The received responses were pasted in excel spreadsheets and word documents for conducting content analysis. Content analysis has been described as “a research technique for the objective, systematic, and quantitative description of the manifest content of communication” ( Berelson, 1952 ). Content analysis of the participants’ responses resulted in several underlying themes ( Lisak, 1994 ). A summary of the participant profiles is presented in Table 2 .

Participants Profile.

Content analysis of the responses resulted in varied sub-themes from the open ended questions asked in the email interviews. For the purpose of content analysis of interview responses were read and re-read several times to interpret variations and discern similarities and differences in the content. These variations and similarities resulted in several underlying sub-themes ( Thyme et al., 2013 ; Mazaheri et al., 2013 ). This kind of analysis is valuable, systematic and one of the ways to recognise data and identify recurring themes ( Thyme et al., 2013 ). The responses were coded/labelled to uncover the similarities, which turned out to be helpful in containing them under manageable heads. Coding assisted in providing the garnered content some logical level and condensation brought preciseness ( Thyme et al., 2013 ). In that process certain responses resulted in similar patterns across broader queries. For example multiskilling, adoption of technology, planning and management of funds, appeared in responses to several interview questions. This sort of condensation and coding/labelling also made quantification possible of the recurring content and the same has been reported in Table 3 . Thematic analysis is good approach in qualitative studies as it allows to discern participants’ views and opinions from a set of data such as interview transcripts ( Caulfield, 2019 ). Careful observation of 27 sub-themes resulted in four dominant themes labelled as Human Resource Management, Health and Hygiene, Continuity, and Concerns.

4. Discussion and implications

4.1. managerial implications.

Most prominent theme that emerged was related to the skills of the employees. This was visible in the way experts felt about the vital learnings from the ongoing crisis, where multiskilling was considered as a latent solution to the issue of reduced redundancy and retaining employees in the long run. This reflects that going forward managers must take cognizance of the evolving practices related to the employees’ engagement in multiple job roles, which is expected to become a norm in hospitality and tourism. Research in past ( Kyriakidou and Maroudas, 2010 ) indicates that this may be achieved by delegation of additional responsibilities, on the job training, and across departmental work projects. The added advantage of multiskilling may also reflect in the form of retaining usefulness of employees during lean seasons or in low demand ( Kyriakidou and Maroudas, 2010 ).

Hygiene and sanitation remained a recurrent sub-theme throughout the responses, be it about foreseeable consumer behaviour or learnings for the industry and educators or trainers. The issue of hygiene has been well documented in tourism and hospitality literature ( Jauhari, 2010 , 2009 ; Tripathi et al., 2010 ). However, for a developing country like India that deals with issues like over-crowdedness and congestion, it is too serious a concern to be overlooked ( Nath, 2003 ). This issue, in the light of the recent publication by Lancet ( Lodder and de Roda Husman, 2020 ), where the researchers have speculated presence of SARS-COV-2 in human waste water becomes more consequential if not managed effectively. The seriousness of this issue can’t be emphasised enough and regardless of the type and size of the establishment, next crucial aspect that is likely to govern the survival would be the presence of standards of waste management and effective sanitation practices visible in all forms of hospitality operations. Hospitality management must consider wearing masks mandatory until a sustained solution, for instance the most contemplated solution+COVID-19 vaccine, is achieved. Irrespective of type of operations, managers must consider creating dedicated task forces among employees to address hygiene issues and related training and awareness creation. Basing on the responses received it seems clear now that there is stark need of formulating national standards for tourism and hospitality enterprises, and their implementation and monitoring should be effectively carried out, failing that should invite relative penalties. The need of national standards also resonate with the recommendations made by Wen et al. (2005) . One such standard practice could be mandatory temperature checking and its record keeping at the entry and exit points of work places and institutions.

The notion of retaining optimism and hopes of revival remained high. This was particularly visible with the responses pertaining to the manpower development. This viewpoint of the experts in tourism and hospitality may be attributable to their rich experiences, where they must have observed highs and lows in the industry. Although COVID-19 presents an unprecedented case before all the sectors, in that the reduced demand and revenues are obvious consequences, which can resonate with the previous crises that also had detrimental effects. However, in previous health (e.g. SARS, Swine Flu, MERS, and Ebola) or other sorts of crises (acts of terrorism, natural calamities) travellers mostly had alternatives at their disposal. This time the entire planet has been held hostage to this severe pandemic, which has brought an absolute halt on various activities, leisure sector being the prominent casualty. From the responses it is evident that alike educators, industry managers too didn’t shy away from highlighting the human resilience and seemed hopeful towards the eventual recovery, meanwhile reassuring individuals who have or intend to pursue careers in the industry.

Participants shared mixed opinions about the media response to the ongoing pandemic, where some lauded the Indian mass media’s role in bringing awareness about the COVID-19 outbreak, while others expected it to be more unbiased. Recent press freedom ranking in 2020 placed country’s media at 142 position ( https://rsf.org/en/ranking_table ), which may, to some extent, explain the variations in the way participants reflected on the media’s role. In addition, the initial surges in infections were also linked to religious congregation in the country’s capital Delhi, coverage of that triggered debates over media’s handling of outbreak on the grounds of particular community (see for example Slater and Masih, 2020 ). The participants expected media to remain unbiased and not target specific community amid pandemic for gaining viewership. However, a unanimity was observed in acknowledgment of the media’s potential in assuaging the impact though positive publicity, sensitising population about hygiene and sanitation and build confidence among viewers.

Crisis management remained a reoccurring response under various categories of inquiries. Management of crisis entails creating blue print for the support during unexpected and unforeseen events. An embryonic risk can take form of crisis due to the unpredictable nature of incidents, which may ensue in unprecedented outcomes. Crisis management warrants formulation strategies at a swift pace to overcome or lessen the effect of the threat. It requires systems to be updated to meet with the unforeseen phases and be able to guide in the entire cycle of crisis management ( Mitroff et al., 1987 ). In doing so the management of crises warrants rapid and timely coordination, not only between members within a team but also between members of different teams ( Reddy et al., 2009 ). In the current research industry experts felt it as a crucial learning for themselves and the government to minimise damage in the event similar catastrophes make reappearance. Voices of effective crisis management have been gaining momentum, so much so that ‘Journal of Tourism Futures’ published perspective paper ( Jamal and Budke, 2020 ) toward COVID-19 outbreak in barely third month of its spread in China in 2020. In addition to the suggestions made by Jamal and Budke (2020) about care for local residents, clear communication among tourism and hospitality stakeholders, and need of UNWTO and WTTC to assist industry prepare for global health emergencies and support research; current research accentuated on the crisis planning and management from three major perspectives, namely industry, trainers/educators and government. Managers in the sector are strongly advised to develop formal guidelines in the event of crises, which shall be clearly communicated to the employees ( Tse et al., 2006 ).

Going forward, investigation into the current pandemic is most likely to gain traction and learnings from previous researches (see for example Senbeto and Hon, 2020 ) which can lay empirical groundwork for the health crisis such as COVID-19 and tourist typology and its influence on short or long haul travels. Because in the current findings too, participants had signalled change in short and long haul travel behaviour in future and also cited it as a key challenge for the tourism industry.

Preparedness of employees for unforeseen contingencies and provision of reserved funds are crucial strategic areas and learnings that can be taken from earlier studies ( Malhotra and Venkatesh, 2009 ; McCool, 2012 ). Businesses, large or small, face the dilemma to continue to pay employees in the event of reduced demand. Especially in the case COVID-19, impacts would arguably be damaging for the industry ( Gössling et al., 2020a , b ). Massive job loss and weakened contribution of the sector to the GDP is imminent, and calls of bailout are rising. Participants majorly acknowledged management of contingency funds for facing such eventualities among key industry learning and responsibility. While the sector is known to be prone to sporadic crises and economic crests and troughs owing to the seasonal variations, the effects of the current pandemic are yet to be abundantly realised.

Participants’ realisation of severity of the health impacts stemming from the physical interactions and proximities was evident. The responses related to the digitalisation and need of adopting online modes of interaction were also frequently noted. Educators, for instance, stressed on the need of the adoption of technology for establishing virtual connect to minimise physical contact between individuals. Utilisation of artificial intelligence and robotics in the industry was also recommended, which falls in line with various scholarly recommendations ( Ivanov and Webster, 2018 ; Webster and Ivanov, 2020 ; Yang et al., 2020 ). The inclusion of robotics in various tourism and hospitality operations are expected to become commonplace, where applications such as robotics in guidance, cleaning, kitchens, airports, hotels, deliveries, may see an increased adoption ( Ivanov and Webster, 2017 ).

Furthermore, the industry heads reflected on the immediate challenge of managing fixed costs when the enterprises are continuing to lose business. Lodging and food service sectors are known to have higher fixed costs and are sensitive to the shocks and instabilities in the market ( Dimitropoulos, 2018 ). In this regard the responses conveyed similar challenges that the organisations faced. Participant P1 reflected that

“COVID19, now globally carrying the status of a pandemic, has led to a worldwide crisis with its effects on the hospitality industry potentially heavier than those of 9/11, SARS, and the financial crisis in 2008. Challenges faced by many of the organisation in today’s scenario is very common -Managing Fixed Expenses, Payroll, Morale of the Employees and specially Cash Flow”.

In the similar vein participant P14 commented

“… As the payment cycle of the hospitality industry varies from 90 to 60 days except the weddings so working capital to meet out the fixed cost is a challange (sic.)”.

To overcome challenge of lost revenue participant P5 responded

“Various cost cutting measures implementation wherever it is possible. Can’t do much on fixed costs.”

These reflections are indications of the acknowledgement by the industry actors of the ongoing struggle and the need to keep the business running while facing the uphill task of meeting their expenses on regular basis. To add to this, the industry is familiar with the variations in demand and it can be argued that unlike other sectors that may ensure steady income, tourism and hospitality oriented businesses are aware of the potential slack times arising out of various reasons like seasonal demand and crises. Employees and employers likewise need to strengthen their competencies and should sail through these tough times, also because if cost cutting is done, for instance, in the form of employee reduction or layoffs, the re-hiring would be needed as and when the industry recovers. Retaining employees is argued to be less expensive than letting employees leave ( Ineson et al., 2013 ). This argument holds relevance particularly in the Indian context where “it is noted that reducing staff or laying off employees may not be the most favored action” ( Israeli et al., 2011, p. 373 ).

Some critical reflections from industry experts are worth noting. On the question of latent redundancy of employees in hotels, participant P9 voiced out that

Post Covid19, organisations will surely redesign/reorganise their business models based on the loss handled and market conditions for the future. Workforce reduction is a possibility however smarter organisations may look at utilising the available workforce in newer roles as per the need of the business. Its (sic) important to understand that hospitality is all about human connections and people will be at the heart of everything we strategize.

While bringing up the aspects of the working culture in the hotel sector, same participant also pointed out that the

Learning for hospitality industry (issues of sick leaves/higher wages cost/business continuity) is that we must continue with our work life balance approach post normalcy. Hotels to continue sending people on leaves (PLs) etc so that we must not come back to the old mindframe (sic) of long work hours and related issues of working in hotels. Employees also need to learn to support the organisations in turbulent times by being flexible in consumption of leaves and not just saving it for monetary gains.

4.2. Theoretical implications

The study’s contribution to the theory is in the form of various themes that can be studied as valuable factors in future researches. From the 27 sub-themes ( Table 3 ) derived from the participants’ responses four dominant themes were labelled as Human Resource Management, Health and Hygiene, Continuity, and Concerns. These should be taken as crucial contribution to the current theory on hospitality and tourism in the light of existing pandemic. The review showed a spike in publications related to earlier SARS outbreak in the aftermath, which however started to reduce gradually. A surge in theoretical contribution is imminent during this time as well, to this end this study adds to the existing body of literature on epidemiological crisis in the backdrop of tourism and hospitality. The study also presented viewpoints of those who have the onus of preparing manpower and employing them after they complete their skills training and necessary education for the tourism and hospitality.

The impacts of the current SARS COVID-19 will be more pronounced and long lasting, especially in the light of absence of immediate vaccine to create immunity in the common masses. Although some countries have had attempted to adopt the path of herd immunity (for example Stockholm) but that approach has been questioned by a body of scientists in the absence of data to support such radical action. This is critical for the tourism and hospitality sector because of the perpetuity exhibited by the outbreak. The effects are going to remain for a longer duration and sectors that thrive on social contacts such as tourism and hospitality need to embrace for tumultuous times ahead. Going forward, it would be crucial for the governments and marketing firms to undertake research to analyse the effects of the current catastrophe on the industry ( Min et al., 2011 ). This research too makes a case for raising awareness to view this pandemic as a wakeup call to prepare for the aftereffects. Going forward other highlighted aspects in the current study such as change in travel and dining habits, careful spending, need of adaptability, market research, leadership roles, population issues would be critical in preparing industry and stakeholders.

The focus on the Indian setting is an essential differentiating element of the study and the current theoretical (as well as managerial) contribution should be viewed as vital in the country’s context. This holds particular relevance as the number of infections are on rise and the country ranks third in terms of total COVID-19 cases ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ).

5. Limitations and future research

This study is subject to certain limitations that must be addressed. Some of them are highlighted here and future directions of research have been indicated. First and foremost the research is based on the qualitative analysis that although uses interview responses from managers or senior personnel, may not justifiably work toward generalisation of the results. Thus with the problem at hand robust empirical investigations are deemed necessary in immediate course to study the pandemic’s industry impacts and make model based estimations and recommendations. However, this research makes a sturdier point in giving an exploratory stance to trigger other empirical investigations. The researches from here can take various variables exhibited as sub-themes and major broad themes that accumulated through perspectives obtained from the industry experts and may operationalise them in future investigations. Quantitative investigations or even triangulation studies can bring deeper insights and help enrich literature. Although studies on SARS and other outbreaks have happened in past, the extent and enormity of the current pandemic is comparable to even greater health catastrophes of past. Thus scales development to study the outbreak impacts, industry response and change in travel and consumer behaviour are strongly recommended.

Another important limitation that should be addresses is that the perspectives reported in the study are from India. Several other themes may surface and some factors manifested from current research may not apply in other scenarios, which remains a strand that could be picked in future researches. Random samples from diverse geographical and cultural setups may contribute toward newer findings. It is also important to note that situation is still evolving and the matters that were prominent a few weeks or months ago may not be as influential now, for instance the rise and decline in the number of cases and its varied manifestation in various geographical settings. This increases the relevance of studies that factor in the temporal change in the circumstances. Going forward, there certainly would be need of more dedicated issues dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak for ensuring literature captures its evolution and recommends practices to mitigate the impacts. One more limitation in the study is that it mostly takes into cognizance individuals working in higher positions in hotels with few senior individuals from academics. The study didn’t consider other stakeholders viewpoints. This leaves a glaring gap for future researches to consider other players in the leisure industry like travel intermediaries, airlines, restaurants at destinations, locals at destinations, other accommodation providers, travel and hospitality students and even different levels of employees’ etc. Addressing to these limitations can fill potential lacunae and improve understanding of scholars and practitioners toward dealing with the ongoing crisis and minimise future fallouts.

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Hospitality and tourism industry amid COVID-19 pandemic: Perspectives on challenges and learnings from India

Affiliations.

• 1 Indian Institute of Management Sirmaur Poanta Sahib, Himachal Pradesh, India.
• 2 Banarsidas Chandiwala Institute of Hotel Management & Catering Technology, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi, India.
• PMID: 33024348
• PMCID: PMC7528873
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102707

COVID-19 outbreak has presented unprecedented circumstances before the fragile tourism and hospitality industry. The highly infectious novel coronavirus continues to thwart the sector and raises serious questions about the present and future survival of the sector. The research addresses two important concerns, first, pertains to the major challenges that hospitality and tourism industry faces amid current conditions; and second relates to the vital learnings for the industry. The study draws on the interviews with 15 participants in senior positions in hospitality industry, and tourism and hospitality education services. Responses to the interviews were content analysed, which resulted in 27 sub-themes that were further condensed into 4 major themes. The dominant sub-themes that emerged out of the qualitative enquiry included need of multiskilling and professional development of the employees, increased sense of hygiene, sanitation and related SOPs, optimism toward revival of the industry, media roles, and need of better crisis preparedness. Subsequent overarching themes included "Human Resource Management", "Health and Hygiene", "Continuity" and "Concerns". The study critically discusses prominent themes in the light of the existing arguments from the literature and reflects on implications for the decision makers. The major implications of the study are in the form of determined themes adding to the evolving theory on COVID-19 pandemic and tourism & hospitality industry; and managerial recommendations to address host of issues while taking essential learnings stemming from the current circumstances. Limitations and scope of future research are also discussed.

Keywords: COVID-19; Hospitality; Industry; Interviews; Qualitative; SARS; Themes; Tourism.

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