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PM Modi to visit South Africa for BRICS summit: What is this grouping?

What is the main purpose of brics, when was it set up and which countries are its founding members ahead of the summit that is to be held from august 22 to 24, we explain..

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit South Africa for the BRICS Summit to be held from August 22 to 24 in Johannesburg. There has been an indication from China , a fellow member of the grouping, about Chinese President Xi Jinping and PM Modi having a bilateral meeting during this period as well.

China’s ambassador to South Africa Chen Xiaodong told reporters, “I am confident that as two nations, two countries, we will have direct talks, direct meetings.” “I cannot say there is tension between us, but as neighbouring countries, we have many common interests at the same time we have some problems,” Bloomberg reported him as saying on Friday (August 18).

While the two leaders did have a brief encounter at the dinner in Bali, Indonesia, during the G20 summit in November 2022, this could be their first scheduled meeting since the border standoff started in May 2020. In this context, we take a look at the BRICS grouping, which both these countries have been a part of for more than a decade now.

What is BRICS?

In 2001, British economist Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs coined the term ‘BRIC’, standing for the initials of what he said were the four emerging economies at the time – Brazil, Russia, India, and China from an investors’ interest perspective.

Writing in 2021, two decades after his initial paper on BRICS, he said, “My primary goal in my first paper, “The World Needs Better Economic BRICs,” was to make a case for changing the framework for global economic governance, not necessarily the inevitable future growth of these countries.”

But he did make note of the projected economic growth of these countries. “Over the next 10 years, the weight of the BRICs and especially China in world GDP will grow, raising important issues about the global economic impact of fiscal and monetary policy in the BRICs,” O’Neill wrote in 2001.

He argued that these nations would collectively become major global economies, suggesting adjustments to global policymaking forums like the G7 to incorporate BRIC. “In line with these prospects, world policymaking forums should be re-organised and in particular, the G7 should be adjusted to incorporate BRIC representatives,” he wrote. India was seen as a potentially valuable addition due to its size, population, and potential.

Now, BRICS includes these five economies, representing 42% of the world’s population, 30% of the world’s territory, 23% of global GDP, and around 18% of world trade, according to its website. An informal meeting of the grouping was held in 2006 among Russia, India, and China on the sidelines of the G8 Outreach Summit in Russia. The first formal meeting was in 2009, also in Russia. South Africa joined in 2010, expanding it to ‘BRICS’.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (C) with, left to right, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Chinese President Hu Jintao and South African President Jacob Zuma at the 4th BRICS Summit in New Delhi in 2012.

What was the rationale behind creating BRICS?

In the past, India and other Asian and African countries have criticised the dominance of European and Western countries at international forums and institutions, such as the United Nations. They have argued that this leads to a lack of representation from voices of the ‘Global South’, a term used to refer to countries that have not traditionally been at the centre of international agenda-setting.

We, the Global South, have the largest stakes in the future. pic.twitter.com/pgA3LfGcHu — PMO India (@PMOIndia) January 12, 2023

It also came amid a solidification of the United States’ status as the sole superpower after the USSR’s collapse in 1991, and a realisation of countering its influence.

With the economic rise of countries such as India and China in recent decades, the creation of their own forums has been utilised as an alternative. G20 is one example, which was more expansive in its memberships as compared to the G8 grouping (later G7 after Russia was expelled over its annexation of Crimea in 2014). Another example is G77, which now has more than 130 members, largely from Africa and Asia.

Similarly, BRICS came about to enhance cooperation between these five countries. This includes aspects of political cooperation through meetings, and economic cooperation such as through the New Development Bank, which is meant to provide financial support to developing markets for infrastructure and other projects.

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But despite these shared larger goals, BRICS has also meant different things to different member countries, and even those strategic interests have evolved over the years. By now, China has gained significantly more economic heft than others in the grouping. Both China and Russia are also now viewing the West with a lot more suspicion than before, with the Ukraine War continuing in its second year and US-China ties seeing frequent roadblocks.

India, meanwhile, has been deepening its relations in spheres of economy and technology with the US, of late. This makes having a common policy and cooperation within the grouping difficult.

As C Raja Mohan, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, wrote in The Indian Express this year , “Notwithstanding the ambitious plans for their expansion, the SCO and BRICS are running out of their geopolitical steam as the context that brought them together at the turn of the millennium no longer exists.”

What is the BRICS agenda for 2023?

The chairmanship rotates among the group annually. The Chair has to set the agenda, priorities and calendar for the year. This year, the agenda of the 15th Summit is ‘BRICS in Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism’.

Notably, both China and Russia have developed a significant presence in Africa in recent years. China has made investments worth billions of dollars in various infrastructure projects, and Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group – whose troops also participated in the Ukraine War – has also made its inroads in several local conflicts.

Further, in July, a South African diplomat said that more than twenty countries have formally expressed an interest in joining the grouping, including Saudi Arabia and Iran. A Bloomberg report said that the other countries that have expressed interest in joining include Argentina, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain and Indonesia.

For India, the platform could be a means of establishing its larger efforts to represent the Global South. It could also be a moment where the Summit could move things along from a diplomatic perspective. As The Indian Express has reported, the 2017 Doklan stand-off at the Bhutan-India-China trijunction was resolved just days before Modi and Xi were scheduled to meet for the then BRICS summit in China.

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BRICS 15th Summit Highlights: PM Modi Arrives In South Africa To Attend 15th BRICS Summit

Brics summit live updates: this will be pm modi's third visit to south africa and the trip marks the 30th anniversary of the diplomatic relationship between india and south africa..

BRICS Summit highlights: The summit will be held from August 22-24.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arrived in South Africa this evening on an official visit during which he will attend the 15th BRICS summit and hold bilateral meetings with a number of world leaders.

BRICS is a grouping of the world economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

BRICS summit will be held from August 22-24. This will be PM Modi's third visit to South Africa and the trip marks the 30th anniversary of the diplomatic relationship between India and South Africa.

This year's BRICS is under the presidency of South Africa. The theme of this year's summit is: "BRICS and Africa: Partnership for mutually accelerated growth, sustainable development and inclusive multilateralism"

This will be the first in-person BRICS Summit after three consecutive years of virtual meetings owing to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Here are the highlights on BRICS Summit:

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BRICS Summit 2023 LIVE: PM Modi holds bilateral meetings with leaders of different countries

During his visit, pm modi will also participate in the brics–africa outreach and brics plus dialogue event that will be held as part of the brics summit activities..

BRICS Summit 2023 : Prime Minister Narendra Modi has started holding bilateral meetings with leaders of different countries on Thursday, shortly after the conclusion of the BRICS Africa Dialogue and BRICS Plus Dialogue in Johannesburg. Notably, the leaders of the five-nation bloc have agreed on expansion and welcomed six countries - Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE - into the fray.

BRICS Summit 2023 | LIVE UPDATES

Pm modi departs from greece after conclusion of brics summit.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi departs for Greece from South Africa's Johannesburg after the conclusion of the 15th BRICS Summit.

PM Modi spoke with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed on sidelines of BRICS Summit

"Glad to speak with my brother, President of the UAE, His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Thank him for his warm wishes on the India’s successful Chandrayaan-3 Mission. Success of this Mission is a success of the entire humanity," said PM Modi on X.

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PM Modi holds bilateral meeting with leader of Mozambique

PM Modi holds bilateral talks with Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi in South Africa's Johannesburg

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi hold a bilateral meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa on the sidelines of 15th BRICS Summit.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina exchanged pleasantries at a dinner here hosted by the current Chair of the BRICS and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Leaders of BRICS leaders, friendly nations gather for family photo

Johannesburg, South Africa | Leaders of BRICS nations and friendly nations gather for a family photo.

PM Modi holds bilateral meeting with Senegal

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President of Senegal Macky Sall hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

PM Modi holds bilateral meeting with Ethiopian counterpart Abiy Ahmed

South Africa: Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds bilateral meeting with Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed Ali.

India has given high importance to relations with Africa: PM Modi at BRICS

PM Narendra Modi at BRICS-Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue

"India has given high importance to relations with Africa. We have opened 16 new missions in Africa. Today, India is Africa's fourth largest trade partner and the fifth largest investor..."

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"I believe that BRICS nations and friendly nations present here can contribute to strengthening a multipolar world.."

PM Modi addresses BRICS-Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue

PM Narendra Modi's remarks at BRICS-Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue, in Johannesburg

Leaders agree for expansion, welcome Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Argentina and Ethiopia

In a major development, the leaders of the BRICS have agreed unanimously for the expansion of the bloc. While addressing a joint press conference on Thursday, leaders of BRICS-- Indian PM Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Russian President Vladimir Putin-- have agreed to include Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the list of BRICS nations.

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, while addressing the Johannesburg declaration, he said, "We highlighted the need for beneficial economic growth and reform of multilateral systems. We are concerned about ongoing conflicts in many parts of the world."

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EAM Jaishankar, his Russian counterpart Lavrov exchange views on bilateral, international issues

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"BRICS countries should practise true multilateralism, oppose division:" Xi Jinping in S Africa

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Chinese President Xi Jinping at the open plenary session of the 15th BRICS Summit

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China will work with all parties to jointly establish BRICS framework: Xi Jinping at 15th BRICS Summit

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India fully supports the expansion of BRICS, we welcome moving forward with consensus on this: PM Modi at the open plenary session of the 15th BRICS Summit

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Technology will play an essential role in making our societies future-ready: PM Modi at BRICS Summit 2023

PM Narendra Modi speaks at the open plenary session of the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg

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Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the open plenary session of the 15th BRICS Summit, via video conferencing

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Russian President Vladimir Putin participates virtually in BRICS Summit 2023

Watch: brics leaders pose for family photograph.

The leaders of the BRICS nation posed for a family photo before the plenary session on Wednesday. In the photo, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, PM Narendra Modi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov were seen strengthening the power and unity of the group.

WATCH | Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend BRICS Plenary Session in Johannesburg

Russian foreign minister sergey lavrov arrives for brics plenary session at sandton convention centre | watch, pm modi and south african president cyril ramaphosa hold bilateral meeting in johannesburg.

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PM Modi arrives at Sandton Convention Centre for BRICS Plenary Session

PM Modi has arrived at Sandton Convention Centre for BRICS Plenary Session.

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PM Modi attends BRICS Business Forum in Johannesburg

PM Modi attends BRICS Business Forum in Johannesburg, South Africa

PM Modi expresses gratitude to the Indian diaspora for 'special welcome' in Johannesburg

"Gratitude to South Africa’s Indian community for the special welcome in Johannesburg," said PM Modi on X (formerly Twitter).

PM Modi receives spiritual welcome in Johannesburg, South Africa

PM Modi receives a special spiritual welcome in Johannesburg, South Africa

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Indian community welcomes PM Modi with chants of 'Vande Mataram' in Johannesburg hotel

Indian diaspora welcomes PM Modi with chants of 'Vande Mataram' in Johannesburg hotel

'It's an honour...' Indian community awaits PM Modi's arrival in Johannesburg hotel

Members of the Indian community gathered inside Sandton Sun Hotel in Johannesburg, South Africa to welcome PM Modi on his arrival in the city.

"It is an honour indeed to be in the presence of the Prime Minister. He is a wonderful man and my hero," says a woman of Indian origin in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Indian community members await PM Modi's arrival with 'dhols' in Johannesburg hotel

Members of the Indian community with 'dhols' and other musical instruments await the arrival of PM Modi at Sandton Sun Hotel in Johannesburg, South Africa

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PM Modi arrives in South Africa on a three-day visit to attend the 15th BRICS summit, MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi says "Deputy President of South Africa received the PM on this arrival. A ceremonial guard of honour will be extended to the PM..."

PM Modi greets members of Indian diaspora after his arrival in South Africa's Johannesburg

Johannesburg: PM Narendra Modi greets members of the Indian diaspora who have gathered here to welcome him. The PM will attend BRICS Business Forum Leaders' Dialogue and dinner hosted by South African President Ramaphosa today.

PM Modi receives ceremonial welcome in South Africa's Johannesburg

PM Modi receives a ceremonial welcome as he arrives at Waterkloof Air Force Base in South Africa.

Members of Indian diaspora cheer as PM Modi lands in Johannesburg

Members of the Indian diaspora cheer as PM Modi lands in Johannesburg, South Africa to attend the 15th BRICS summit

PM Modi arrives in Johannesburg, South Africa

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BRICS Summit 2023 HIGHLIGHTS: Chandrayaan-3 Landing Momentous For All Members, Says South African President

Brics summit 2023 highlights: please follow this space for all the latest developments on prime minister narendra modi's visit to south africa for 15th brics summit..

BRICS Summit 2023 HIGHLIGHTS: Hello and welcome to 15th BRICS Summit Live Blog. Please follow this space for all the latest developments on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to South Africa for BRICS Summit. PM Modi left for his three-day visit to South Africa on Tuesday to attend the 15th BRICS Summit being held in Johannesburg, expressing confidence that it will provide a useful opportunity for its members to identify future areas of cooperation and review institutional development. He is expected to reach the African nation at 5:45 pm Indian Standard Time.

He is scheduled to reach his hotel in Johannesburg at around 5:55 pm IST where he will be welcomed by the members of the Indian diaspora. At 7:30 pm IST, the Prime Minister will address the BRICS Business Forum Leaders' Dialogue.

In his departure statement on Tuesday, Modi said that BRICS has been pursuing a strong cooperation agenda across various sectors. "We value that BRICS has become a platform for discussing and deliberating on issues of concern for the entire Global South, including development imperatives and reform of the multilateral system," he said.

"Leaving for South Africa to take part in the BRICS Summit being held in Johannesburg. I will also take part in the BRICS-Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue events. The Summit will give the platform to discuss issues of concern for the Global South and other areas of development," posted the PM on X.

Modi is visiting South Africa to attend the summit of BRICS — comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — at the invitation of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

From South Africa, the Prime Minister will travel to Athens in Greece on August 25 at the invitation of his Greece counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis, he noted that this will be his first visit to this ancient land.

"I have the honour to be the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Greece after 40 years," he said.

"I also look forward to holding bilateral meetings with some of the Leaders present in Johannesburg," he said.

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Xi Jinping Expresses Disapproval Of Nations Forming Groups To Promote Their Rules

Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his disapproval of countries coming together to form groups and promote their rules. He delivered his remarks during the plenary session of the 15th BRICS Summit.

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Chandrayaan-3 Landing Momentous Occasion For BRICS Family, Says South African President

"This for us, as the BRICS family, is a momentous occasion and we rejoice with you. We join you in the joy of this great achievement," South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said.

BRICS Summit 2023 Live: PM Modi Holds Bilateral Talks With South African President Ramaphosa

PM Modi discusses bilateral trade, defence ties, and investment opportunities with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Had an excellent meeting with President @CyrilRamaphosa . We discussed a wide range of issues aimed at deepening India-South Africa relations. Trade, defence and investment linkages featured prominently in our discussions. We will keep working together to strengthen the voice of… pic.twitter.com/xhxEClr1Dl — Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) August 23, 2023

BRICS Summit 2023 Live: PM Modi Arrives At Sandton Convention Centre For Plenary Session

PM Modi has arrived at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg for the BRICS plenary session.

#WATCH | PM Modi arrives at Sandton Convention Centre for BRICS Plenary Session, in Johannesburg #BRICSSummit2023 pic.twitter.com/iJCmS63eP8 — ANI (@ANI) August 23, 2023

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PM Modi's South Africa visit to attend BRICS Summit: Dates, itinerary, scheduled events, and more

Pm modi to attend the 15th brics summit in south africa, marking the first in-person meeting in three years. he will also visit greece..

BRICS Summit: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will leave for South Africa on Tuesday to participate in the 15th BRICS summit , a grouping of the world economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The summit will take place from August 22 to August 24.

Notably, it will be the first in-person BRICS Summit after three consecutive years of virtual meetings owing to the Covid-19 pandemic . This will be PM Modi's third visit to South Africa and the trip marks the 30th anniversary of the diplomatic relationship between India and South Africa.

In an official statement, the Prime Minister's Office said, “I am visiting the Republic of South Africa from 22-24 August 2023 at the invitation Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, to attend the 15th BRICS Summit being held in Johannesburg under the South African Chairmanship. I also look forward to holding bilateral meetings with some of the Leaders present in Johannesburg."

PM Modi's South Africa visit schedule

Itinerary in local South African time below,

0710 hrs: Departure from Delhi

1345 hrs: Arrival at Waterkloof Air Force Base

1555 hrs: Arrival at Sandton Convention Centre

1600-1700 hrs: BRICS Business Forum Leaders’ Dialogue

1800 hrs: Arrival at Summer Place

1800-2000 hrs: BRICS Leaders Retreat, Welcome Dinner hosted by President Ramaphosa

PM Modi's visit to Greece

Following the summit, PM Modi will go to Greece - the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the ancient country in 40 years.

"From South Africa, I will travel to Athens, Greece on 25 August 2023 at the invitation of Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece PM. This will be my first visit to this ancient land. I have the honor to be the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Greece after 40 years," the statement added.

Providing details about the PM's trip , foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra said, "For the 15th BRICS Summit, a business delegation from India is also traveling to South Africa to attend the Business Tracks meetings and also the meetings of the BRICS Business Council, BRICS Women Business Alliance , and the BRICS Business Forum."

During his visit to South Africa, PM Modi will also participate in a special event "BRICS – Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue" being organized after the BRICS Summit, which will include other nations invited by South Africa.

In addition, PM Modi will also hold bilateral meetings with some of the leaders present in Johannesburg.

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PM Modi to Attend 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa’s Johannesburg. Check Full Itinerary

Curated By : Shankhyaneel Sarkar

Last Updated: August 21, 2023, 23:37 IST

New Delhi, India

PM Modi poses for a family photo during the 15th BRICS Summit in Brasilia with Presidents of Russia Vladimir Putin, China, Xi Jinping, South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa and former Brazilian President Bolsonaro in this file photo. (Image: Reuters)

PM Modi Johannesburg Visit: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the BRICS Summit in South Africa’s Johannesburg and will also visit Greece.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will embark on a four-day visit to South Africa and Greece from Tuesday. During his three-day visit to Johannesburg, Prime Minister Modi will attend the 15th BRICS Summit at the invitation of President of South Africa Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa.

The summit will be held from August 22 to August 24. This is the first in-person BRICS summit to be held since 2019. The BRICS grouping consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

PM Modi’s Aug 22 Schedule

The Prime Minister will arrive at Waterkloof Air Force Base around 5.15 pm. Two hours later, he will attend BRICS Business Forum Leaders’ Dialogue. At 9:30 pm, he will participate in BRICS Leaders’ Retreat.

The BRICS nations represent 42% of the world’s population along with a significant 27% of the global GDP. The theme of the summit this year is BRICS and Africa: Partnership for mutually accelerated growth, sustainable development and inclusive multilateralism .

“The summit will provide an opportunity to review progress of the initiatives launched by the grouping and identify future areas of activity,” the external affairs ministry said in a press release.

PM Modi will also take part in the special event BRICS – Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue which are being organised after the BRICS leadership summit. This will include other nations invited by South Africa.

PM Modi is expected to hold bilateral meetings with leaders who will be present in Johannesburg. The MEA said that the itinerary of bilateral meetings is still evolving.

A business delegation will travel with PM Modi to South Africa. They will attend BRICS business track meetings and also the BRICS Business Council, BRICS Women Business Alliance and the BRICS Business Forum meetings.

Notably, Chinese President Xi Jinping will also attend the BRICS Summit in person and will also undertake a state visit. This is the second time Xi Jinping is stepping outside China this year after his cross border trip to Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be present in Johannesburg due to the International Criminal Court issuing an arrest warrant for Russian President Putin in March this year, linking him to the war crime of deporting Ukrainian children.

BRICS Expansion

The external affairs ministry during a special briefing on Monday ahead of Prime Minister Modi’s departure said India has positive intent and an open mind when it comes to BRICS expansion. “There is considerable interest among many nations to join BRICS. As far as BRICS expansion is concerned, we are clear, we have a positive intent and an open mind when it comes to BRICS expansion. Discussions are ongoing between Sherpas of BRICS nations regarding expansion and to reach a consensus,” foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra said.

Greece Visit

PM Modi will also visit Greece on August 25 at the invitation of his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis. This is the first time in 40 years an Indian Prime Minister is embarking on an official visit to Athens. Both leaders will discuss ways to further deepen the relationship and PM Modi will also interact with business leaders from both countries, as well as with the Indian community in Greece.

“India and Greece enjoy civilizational ties, which have strengthened in recent years through cooperation in areas like maritime transport, defence, trade and investments and people-to-people ties,” the external affairs ministry said in a press release.

Cyril Ramaphosa
Narendra Modi

PM Modi to depart for Johannesburg on Tuesday to attend 15th Brics summit

South Africa’s Johannesburg decked up for 15th BRICS, PM Modi to visit

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PM Modi to depart for Johannesburg on Tuesday to attend 15th Brics summit

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BRICS Summit: PM Modi departs for Johannesburg, issues statement. Details

15th brics summit: “i also look forward to holding bilateral meetings with some of the leaders present in johannesburg,” narendra modi said..

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday morning departed for Johannesburg to participate in the 15th BRICS Summit. In his departure statement ahead of visiting South Africa, Modi said he is looking forward to holding bilateral meetings with some of the world leaders in Johannesburg. Modi will attend the BRICS Summit at the invitation of South African President Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa, the Prime Minister's Office said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi before departing for Johannesburg, South Africa, to participate at the 15 BRICS Summit. (ANI)

Watch: PM Modi's Big Call Before BRICS; Russia Dubs Bloc 'Pillar Of New World Order' | Details

Modi said also he has the honour to be the first Indian prime minister to visit Greece after 40 years .

Modi said the summit will provide a useful opportunity for its members to identify future areas of cooperation and review institutional development. He added BRICS has been pursuing a strong cooperation agenda across various sectors.

"We value that BRICS has become a platform for discussing and deliberating on issues of concern for the entire Global South, including development imperatives and reform of the multilateral system," he said.

"I also look forward to holding bilateral meetings with some of the Leaders present in Johannesburg," he said.

“I am visiting the Republic of South Africa from 22-24 August 2023 at the invitation Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, to attend the 15th BRICS Summit being held in Johannesburg under the South African Chairmanship,” Modi said.

“I also look forward to holding bilateral meetings with some of the Leaders present in Johannesburg,” Modi added.

Modi added that from South Africa, he will travel to Athens, Greece on August 25 at the invitation of Greece Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

“This will be my first visit to this ancient land. I have the honour to be the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Greece after 40 years,” he said.

Contacts between our two civilizations stretch back over two millennia and, in modern times, our ties have been strengthened by shared values of democracy, rule of law and pluralism, he said. Cooperation in diverse sectors such as trade and investment, defence, and cultural and people-to-people contacts have been bringing our two countries closer, he added.

He looked forward to visiting Greece and opening a new chapter in our multifaceted relationship, Modi said.

BRICS is a grouping of the world economies of Brazil , Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The summit will be held from August 22-24. This will be Modi's third visit to South Africa and the trip marks the 30th anniversary of the diplomatic relationship between India and South Africa.

This will be the first in-person BRICS Summit after three consecutive years of virtual meetings owing to the Covid-19 pandemic.

On Monday, foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra in a briefing ahead of Modi's visit to South Africa and Greece, said, "As I mentioned in my remarks, the host country South Africa has invited a large number of guest countries, besides of course the BRICS members who would be present there."

Kwatra stated that a business delegation from India is also travelling to the country to attend the Business Tracks meetings.

Providing details about the PM's trip, Kwatra said, "For the 15th BRICS Summit, a business delegation from India is also travelling to South Africa to attend the Business Tracks meetings and also the meetings of the BRICS Business Council, BRICS Women Business Alliance and the BRICS Business Forum."

"The Prime Minister's schedule in terms of bilateral meetings with those leaders who would be present in South Africa is still being developed," Kwatra said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will join the 15th summit virtually while the Russian delegation will be led by foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. He will also participate in a special event with the theme “Brics – Africa outreach and Brics plus dialogue”.

This is being organised after the summit and will include dozens of countries, mostly from the African continent, invited by South Africa.

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India and Central Asia: Despite historical links and Modi government’s outreach, ties need renewed focus

India has not been able to take full advantage of its close ancient linkages with this region after their independence from the erstwhile Soviet Union in 1991 read more

India has enjoyed historical, cultural and civilisational links with Central Asia for several millennia. Brisk trade of goods, ideas and thoughts took place from India to Central Asia and beyond over the Silk Road from 3rd century BC to 15th century AD. Buddhism travelled to Afghanistan, Central Asia and western China from India over this route. India and the Central Asian Republics (CARs) viz. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan shared vibrant economic, people-to-people and cultural ties till recent times when the latter were a part of the Soviet Union.

India has not been able to take full advantage of its close ancient linkages with this region after their independence from the erstwhile Soviet Union in 1991 because it does not share a de facto land boundary with any of these countries (although de jure it shares a border with Tajikistan through the Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir). To overcome this obstacle, several initiatives which have been in the pipeline for many years have now been fast-tracked. Two of the most significant are the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar port.

Evolution of relations

In current times, Central Asian Republics constitute the extended neighbourhood of India. Peace and security in Central Asia is critical to peace and stability in India. This is intimately connected with peace and security in Afghanistan. Three Central Asian Republics — Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan — share borders with Afghanistan.

India and Central Asia need to collaborate with other regional powers like Russia, Iran, China and Pakistan as also with the US and the EU to promote security and stability in Afghanistan. The advent of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in August 2021 after the sudden and unceremonious withdrawal of the US and NATO troops has introduced further complications in promoting connectivity between India and Central Asia.

In addition to the above, the region is also richly endowed with natural and mineral resources like oil, gas (Turkmenistan contains the world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas), uranium (Kazakhstan is the world’s largest producer of uranium ore and has the world’s second largest reserve of this mineral), lead, iron ore, coal, rare earths, water, etc. The region can contribute to India’s energy security through fossil fuels and hydro-power and meet its need of many critical minerals and metals. The area is ideally situated for providing seamless connectivity between Europe and India. It encompasses the “heartland” of Halford Mackinder’s “Heartland Theory” propounded in his article “The Geographical Pivot of History” in 1904. Moreover, the region harbours great potential for promoting trade and investment, tourism, people-to-people connect, cultural, business and academic exchanges between India and these countries.

India and Central Asia started on a strong and robust note when these countries attained freedom from the Soviet Union in 1991. The then Indian Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao sensed the strategic significance of the region and visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 1993, and Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan in 1995. The next twenty years however witnessed a relative neglect of the region by the Indian leadership owing to its preoccupation with domestic affairs, absence of a strong, single party government in New Delhi and its focus on expanding ties with major, strategic powers.

The 20 years from 1995 to 2015 witnessed only four prime ministerial visits from India to the region — in 2002 by PM Vajpayee to Kazakhstan for the CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia) Summit followed by a half day bilateral visit, and in 2003 to Tajikistan; in 2006 by PM Manmohan Singh to Uzbekistan, and in 2011 to Kazakhstan for an overnight visit on his way back from Sanya, Hainan after the BRICS Summit.

Relations expand in Modi era

This indifference was corrected after PM Narendra Modi assumed power in May 2014, becoming the first Prime Minister after 30 years with a full majority in the lower house of Parliament (Lok Sabha). In just a little more than a year after becoming PM, he travelled to all five Central Asian countries in July 2015, the first Indian Prime Minister to do so, sending out a clear message about India’s intent in expanding its ties with these countries.

The last 10 years of PM Modi’s rule have witnessed a significant upswing in bilateral partnership and engagement with these countries. The rapidly changing dynamics of Central Asia’s regional and global political, strategic and economic architecture provide a bright opportunity for India to diversify and deepen its partnership with these countries.

Prime Minister Modi organised a Central Asia + India Summit in virtual format on 27 January, 2022. The Summit would have been held in person in the physical format in New Delhi in the context of celebration of India’s Republic Day except that it was changed to a virtual Summit because of the preoccupation of the Kazakh President with the unprecedented violent protests and clashes in his country. The Leaders discussed the next steps in taking India-Central Asia relations to new heights. In a historic decision, the Leaders agreed to institutionalise the Summit mechanism by deciding to hold it every two years.

On connectivity, the leaders agreed to utilise the services of the Shahid Beheshti Terminal at the Chabahar Port for facilitating trade between the landlocked Central Asian countries and India. The leaders discussed far-reaching proposals to further cooperation in areas of trade and connectivity, development cooperation, defence and security and, in particular, in cultural and people to people contacts.

On the evolving situation in Afghanistan, the leaders reiterated their strong support for a peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan with a truly representative and inclusive government. PM Modi conveyed India’s continued commitment to provide humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people. A comprehensive Joint Declaration was adopted by the leaders that enumerated their common vision for an enduring and comprehensive India-Central Asia partnership.

In the context of SCO Summits, PM Modi visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan, in 2016; Astana, Kazakhstan, in 2017; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, in 2019, and Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in 2022. The PM interacted inter alia with the SCO Central Asian leaders on the sidelines of other SCO Summits in Ufa, Russia in 2015; in Qingdao, China in 2018, etc.

The President of Uzbekistan visited India in 2018 and 2019; of Kyrgyzstan in 2016 and 2019; and of Tajikistan in 2016.

India under the chairmanship of PM Modi hosted a successful, virtual SCO Summit in July, 2023.

All Central Asian nations participated in the two Voice of Global South Summits organised virtually by India during its Presidency of the G20 in January and November 2023.

All the above interactions and discussions helped to significantly enhance understanding and cooperation between India and Central Asia.

In pursuance of the decision at the India + Central Asia Summit in January 2022, the first India-Central Asia Meeting of National Security Advisers (NSAs)/Secretaries of Security Councils was held on December 6, 2022 in New Delhi. The participants reiterated their strong support for a peaceful, stable and secure Afghanistan, emphasising respect for its sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity and urging non-interference in its internal affairs.

The Second India-Central Asia NSAs meeting took place in October 2023 and discussed measures for enhancing cooperation in cyber security, digital infrastructure, rare earths, and people-to-people contacts. India proposed the establishment of an India-Central Asia Rare Earths Forum to attract investment from the private sector. India also offered to provide technology related to digital payments free of cost to facilitate the setting up of sovereign digital real-time payment systems in line with the needs of these countries.

Prior to the Summit, India had launched a C5+1 Dialogue at Foreign Minsters’ level between India and Central Asian countries in Samarkand, Uzbekistan in January, 2019. This was designed to bring dynamism and energy to the languishing relationship. On account of the pandemic, the second Dialogue was held virtually in October, 2020. The third in the series was held in New Delhi in December 2021. This first in-person meet after more than two years provided a valuable opportunity to the foreign ministers to take stock of progress in their relations and identify new areas of cooperation. The ministers decided to step up efforts to achieve the full potential for trade between India and Central Asia and make optimum utilisation of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

At the NSA level, meetings have been taking place to discuss security issues in a focused manner. These started soon after the capture of Afghanistan by the Taliban in August, 2021. The first meeting took place in New Delhi in November 2021 and was attended by the NSAs of Central Asian Countries as well as Russia and Iran. The meeting focused on Afghanistan and stressed the crucial need for good and efficient governance there, ensuring the fundamental rights of women, children, and minority communities and to combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, including its financing, the dismantling of terrorist infrastructure and countering radicalisation.

These meetings have been taking place on a regular basis, the last one having been held in Moscow in February, 2023 in which the NSAs of all Central Asian countries also participated.

The way forward

Some recommendations for taking the relationship to the next level are given below:

1. In the midst of growing geo-political turbulence, Central Asia is looking for partners other than Russia and China to engage with. India eminently fits the bill as there is no threat perception that Central Asia harbours from enhanced partnership with it. India will, however, need to significantly augment its collaboration with the region in all areas viz. political, official, security, business, scientific, technological, health, education, cultural, think tanks and others, both at the bilateral as well as at the regional level.

2. After the virtual India-Central Asia Summit held on 27 January, 2022, the first in-person India + Central Asia Summit should be held in India at the earliest after the elections in 2024. Adequate preparations would need to be made so that a strong impetus to bilateral and regional ties is provided.

3. It was decided to institutionalise the relations between India and Central Asia at the virtual Summit in 2022. The next and subsequent Summits could be held alternately in India and one of the countries of Central Asia. After the 2024 Summit in India, the next Summit could be scheduled either in Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan in 2026.

4. It was decided at the Virtual Summit in 2022 that regular meetings of Foreign Ministers, Trade Ministers, Culture Ministers and Secretaries of the Security Council should be held to prepare the groundwork for the Summit meetings. An India-Central Asia Secretariat in New Delhi was also to be set up to support the new mechanism. It appears that so far only the meetings of the Secretaries of the Security Councils have been held in New Delhi in December, 2022, and in Astana, Kazakhstan in October 2023. Other meetings should also be held expeditiously before the in-person Summit later this year.

5. Several other decisions were taken at the Summit in 2022 i.e. creation of an ‘India-Central Asia Parliamentary Forum’; implementation of High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs) in Central Asian countries; utilisation of $1 billion Line of Credit announced by India in 2020 for infrastructure development in Central Asian countries, and more. Action on all these decisions should be expedited.

6. India needs to identify further opportunities in areas spanning political, security, strategic, trade and investment to academic, culture, tourism, youth, women development, sports and people-to-people connect to strengthen ties with Central Asia.

7. Although all countries of Central Asia should be given due attention, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan merit special focus — Uzbekistan because it has emerged as the most proactive among the Central Asian states in its desire to increase partnership with India; and, Kazakhstan because it is the largest country in geographical area, endowed with significant mineral resources, and is the largest economy of the region.

8. It would be desirable for India to collaborate with other like-minded countries like the US, Japan, Europe and others to strengthen and deepen engagement with Central Asia. This would be to the mutual benefit and advantage of Central Asian countries as well as the partner nations.

9. To take full advantage of the emerging opportunities for partnership in Central Asia, India should appoint a Special Envoy for the Region who can reach out to the concerned authorities in the region at the appropriate level, and also get decision making expedited in India.

Taking action on the above has the potential to provide an early, significant fillip to the strategic and vital partnership between India and Central Asia.

There is an immense identity of views and position on most regional and global issues between India and Central Asia. Some of these include peace and stability in Afghanistan; rapidly promoting Connectivity (INSTC and Chabahar); counter-terrorism; climate change; trade and investment, security and defence, etc.

India can share its expertise in the areas of IT, digital payment infrastructure, health, education, startups, space industry, textiles, leather and footwear industry, gems and jewellery, tourism, pharmaceuticals, counter-terrorism, anti-radicalisation and much more with the Central Asian countries. Once suitable connectivity is established, the region could meet India’s energy security needs in oil, gas, hydropower, etc, in addition to uranium which India is importing from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. There is empathy, warmth and trust between the people of India and Central Asia. There is no fear, distrust or threat perceived from India as is the case with some other neighbours in the region.

The future holds huge potential for a much brighter and robust relationship between India and Central Asia, both at the bilateral as well as the regional level.

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The ten BRICS+ nations account for half the world’s population and two-fifth of trade—and include major energy producers and importers. Twelve more nations have applied.
The bloc is starting to build institutions with important implications for energy trade, international finance, supply chains, and technological research.
Global companies will need to factor geopolitics into their investment strategies and strengthen their capacity to capture the opportunities and mitigate the risks of BRICS expansion.

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/ article, an evolving brics and the shifting world order.

By Daniel Azevedo , Saurabh Bakliwal , Cinthia Chen , Marc Gilbert , Iacob Koch-Weser , Nikolaus Lang , and Michael McAdoo

Key Takeaways

As attention focuses on wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and mounting tensions between the world’s great powers, a structural shift in the global order has been quietly underway. Large developing nations are exerting greater influence in world economic affairs and are beginning to build alternatives to Western-led institutions.

At this movement’s core is a formal intergovernmental grouping known as the BRICS+. The grouping includes five longstanding members—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa—as well as five that joined in January 2024 or have been invited: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Together, these ten nations account for around 40% of both crude oil production and exports. They also account for one-quarter of global GDP, two-fifths of global trade in goods, and nearly half of the world’s population. Adding another dozen nations that have applied for membership, including dynamic emerging markets such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, would raise the group’s share to one-third of global GDP.

A larger BRICS challenges the dominance of existing global institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, that are strongly influenced by the West. It also further weakens the relevance of the G-20, a grouping founded in 1999 to seek economic policy alignment among the largest industrialized and developing economies. Indeed, the G20 is fraying at both ends: its seven most economically advanced members are strengthening their ties through the G7, while its six large developing economies are asserting their own voices within BRICS+. (Exhibit 1.)

BRICS+ creates a forum that, at minimum, gives emerging markets the opportunity to align on global topics and new opportunities to promote mutual economic development and growth. And it’s evolving steadily. As it begins building political and financial institutions and a payment mechanism for executing transactions, there are important potential implications for the future of energy trade, international finance, global supply chains, monetary policy, and technological research. As a result, global companies will need to factor these new geopolitical and economic realities into their investment strategies. They should also strengthen their capacity to capture the opportunities and to mitigate risk that they engender.

How BRICS+ Has Evolved

Leaders of the original BRICS nations held their first summit in 2009 to discuss reforming international financial institutions, which they believed did not adequately address the interests of the Global South. Aside from the United Nations and G20, which included all five BRICS, there was no major forum where emerging markets could discuss their own economic and geopolitical agendas. Development assistance and funding for infrastructure through financial institutions established largely by Western powers after World War II often came with challenging strings attached.

There has been skepticism from the beginning over whether BRICs would evolve into a functioning bloc. But over the years, these nations have been drawing nearer to each other economically. Trade in goods among BRICS economies has considerably outpaced trade between the BRICS and G7 nations, leading to greater intra-BRICS trade intensity. (Exhibit 2). Decades of rapid growth have also given many of these economies far more weight in the global economy, both as producers and consumers. (Exhibit 3.) Because many of these nations are engaged with both advanced economies and China, which is perceived as an economic and trade superpower, they can create another coalition less dependent on the West.

Recent crises have added momentum to BRICS expansion. Several big developing nations that are aligned with neither NATO nor Russia resisted pressure to adhere to Western-imposed sanctions on Moscow in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Others have complained that G7 nations’ initiatives to combat climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic did not take their needs into account. BRICS+ institutions have been slowly evolving through regular meetings, joint initiatives, and formal bodies.

Yet grounds for skepticism over BRICS+’s capacity to become an effective institution remain. This grouping includes countries that are very diverse in terms of political systems, institutional frameworks, economic models, and cultural backgrounds. It even includes geopolitical rivals; for example, relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as between China and India, remain strained. A so-called “China shock” of low-cost exports of everything from steel and chemicals to machinery could also raise trade tensions within the group. The expansion, moreover, is heavily tilted toward the Middle East, so further regional balance may be required as the group grows.

Five Ways BRICS+ Can Shift the World Order

BRICS+ could make a significant global impact in the following five areas.

Energy. BRICS+ brings together both some of the world’s biggest energy producers and buyers. With the addition of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, BRICS+ member states account for around 32% of world output of natural gas and 43% of crude oil. If Kazakhstan, Kuwait, and Bahrain are admitted, those shares will rise further. BRICS+ nations also account for 38% of global petroleum imports, led by China and India. If all new applicants are admitted, that would rise to 55%. (Exhibit 4.) During times of volatility in energy markets, having many of the biggest energy buyers and sellers within the same group could give rise to a parallel energy trading system. That would allow for transactions among BRICS+ economies outside the Western-led financial system and potential future sanction programs, and it would perhaps give them the ability to influence oil prices.

Trade networks. Trade has been a major driver of the economic development of BRICS+. The share of global trade in goods transacted among the group’s current members more than doubled, to 40%, from 2002 through 2022. This trend becomes clearer when looking at the increasing dependence of specific BRICS+ economies on trade with fellow BRICS+ members. China’s growing role as a supplier of industrial and consumer goods, as well as an importer of commodities, has been a key force for integration. China has become a major market for Brazilian soybeans and iron ore, for example, and a major exporter of advanced goods such as electric vehicles, solar panels, and heavy machinery. Western sanctions relating to the war in Ukraine, moreover, have led to the diversion of Russian exports to BRICS+ markets, notably China and India.

Although a handful of BRICS+ members have free trade agreements (FTAs) with each other through blocs such as the Gulf Cooperation Council and Pan-Arab Free Trade Area, there is currently no FTA covering the entire ten-nation group. India withdrew mid-negotiation from Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes China. BRICS+ could, however, serve as a forum for widening intra-BRICS+ market access in various ways. It already convenes a Digital Economy Working Group, for example, and has established a framework for promoting cooperation in professional and business services trade.

Infrastructure and development financing. The greatest progress so far in BRICS+ institution building has been in project and development finance. The New Development Bank (NDB), capitalized at $100 billion, largely complements China’s Belt & Road initiative. Egypt, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and UAE are also shareholders in the China-led Asian Infrastructure & Investment Bank (AIIB) and have received loans from it. By 2023, the NBD and AIIB combined had committed more than $71 billion in credit across a range of sectors, including infrastructure, public health, and clean energy. (Exhibit 5.) Such projects generate significant revenue for BRICS+ companies. The addition of Saudi Arabia and other cash-rich economies, moreover, could expand and diversify the financial resources of BRICS+.

Monetary policy . BRICS+ countries are keen to develop greater independence from the Western-led international monetary system. Approximately 90% of global foreign exchange transactions are conducted in dollars and flow primarily through US and European banks. Western financial sanctions on Russia underscored the powerful systemic influence the US still holds through Bretton Woods institutions and its central role in the global financial system. Because BRICS+ includes leading commodity exporters and importers, however, the group can become a conduit for foreign exchange transactions in currencies other than US dollars. The NDB, for instance, has issued about one-fifth of its loans in Chinese yuan. Russia, China, and other BRICS+ members also aim to promote digital currencies. The group has launched the beta version of a payment app—BRICSpay—that enables transactions in several non-dollar currencies. That could help nations ease reliance on the US and make them less vulnerable to sanctions and foreign exchange volatility during financial crises. From a governance perspective, BRICS+ has established the Payment Task Force, the Think Tank Network for Finance, and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, establishing a pool of reserves that can be used in place of IMF funds to help nations address financial crises.

Technological cooperation. Space is an overlooked dimension of BRICS+ collaboration. There is a BRICS+ Space Cooperation Joint Committee, supported by longstanding partnerships between Russia and China and China and Brazil. BRICS+ has also established a Partnership on New Industrial Revolution and a Center for Industrial Competencies. These initiatives aim to spur cooperation and innovation in leading-edge technologies in areas such as intelligent manufacturing, artificial intelligence, digitization, and clean energy. The efforts could help more emerging markets get in on the ground of new technologies, improve their capacity to create intellectual property, and adopt alternative technical standards.

The Implications for Companies

An expanded BRICS presents risks as well as opportunities for business. Companies should anticipate that BRICS+ will develop more formal institutions and agreements in the years ahead and begin planning for such scenarios. Companies should consider action in five areas.

Develop a BRICS-for-BRICS go-to-market strategy. BRICS+ markets are likely to experience significant growth over the next decade. While the group lacks formal trade and investment agreements, it already has substantial, growing intra-BRICS trade. BRICS+ markets could become valuable gateways for companies seeking to expand to other emerging markets. The success of China-made EVs in BRICS+ markets is a good example of how companies can customize offerings to reach consumers across the member countries.
Leverage the infrastructure boom. BRICS+ is likely to see significant infrastructure investment, which will improve the business environment and connectivity. Transportation, digital communications, energy, and other projects will generate demand for global companies and provide opportunities for investors. The NDB, for example, is funding 15 transportation infrastructure projects across the Indian subcontinent.
Adapt “China + 1.” Many companies are pursuing supply chain strategies that seek to strike a difficult balance. They want to keep leveraging China’s many competitive advantages in manufacturing. But they also need to mitigate risks, react to shifts in relative costs, and gain access to government incentives for reshoring or near shoring. In a more multipolar world, companies could consider building supply chains that can leverage the BRICS+ economies. That could make them more resilient to geopolitical and trade shocks.
Refine risk and compliance. Economic sanctions, such as those stemming from the war in Ukraine, and US-China technological competition are heightening legal, operational, and reputational risks for companies. A recent BCG survey of 250 risk and compliance officers found that geopolitical risk is now a top-five concern, up 15 spots from a prior survey. Most sanctions have emanated from Western countries. In the future, BRICS countries could coordinate a mutual “non-sanctioning” posture while also seeking to avoid the Western-led financial system. Multinational companies should account for this scenario when managing their import and export global supply chains, exchange rates, third-party screening, and risk and compliance needs. While companies will need to comply with Western sanctions, they can do so in ways that don’t hamper potential BRICS-for-BRICs value chains.
Build geopolitical muscle. During the period of relative peace that followed the end of the Cold War, business leaders had limited need to assert themselves in global political and security issues. These days, geopolitics is increasingly uncertain and volatile. Executives need to prepare for a wide range of scenarios that could impact their operations, supply chains, consumers, and brands. They need to factor geopolitics into their capital-allocation decisions and strategic planning. Leaders should also build geopolitical sensing capabilities across their business units, functions, and regional managements to balance business efficiency with risk mitigation.

Recent years of new geopolitical tensions, economic ambition and instability, trade wars, and a pandemic have clearly brought lasting, structural change and challenges to the business landscape we once knew. The growth of the BRICS+ shows that, after decades of strong economic development, emerging markets are now ready for a larger role in the world order, one that better reflects their interests. Companies that adapt to this movement will be more likely to thrive in an evolving era of multipolar competition.

Managing Director & Partner

Managing Director & Senior Partner

Associate Director, Global Trade & Investment

Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Vice Chair, Global Advantage Practice

Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment

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Modi's Approach To Election Is Intriguing

The big surprise is that Narendra Modi, the greatest conjurer in our national politics, has not yet presented a theme to this election, observes Shekhar Gupta.

We are now at about the halfway point in the Lok Sabha election campaign and what stands out is -- and I say so with some trepidation -- how little stands out.

Trepidation because the nutgraf of the argument is the frontrunner's inability to define this campaign so far.

Since Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party first rose, say from 2012 onwards, they have defined the terms of competitive politics in India.

In 2014, it was the call for achchhe din (better times) for all and a '56-inch chest' and laal aankh (angry red eyes) for enemies, namely, Pakistan and China.

In 2019, it was a clarion call on national security, and a changed approach to it, defined as ' ghus ke maarenge (will kill the terrorists/enemies inside their homes)'.

For 2024, a theme has yet to emerge for the BJP. China is totally missing, and Pakistan mostly so.

None of this distracts from the theme that the party remains the frontrunner by some distance. That is why its diffidence in settling some consistent and durable terms of engagement in this contest is intriguing.

This might indeed be the reason why voting percentages have been lower this time. And the summer hasn't even fully begun yet.

Or could it be that they see the lack of a contest, which makes it unexciting, like the anticipation of a one-sided cricket match between two vastly unequal rivals?

When the result is so easy and safe to anticipate, why bother going out to vote?

If you speak with people from the BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, and Modi government supporters in general, as I did over some travels in Bengaluru and around , this apprehension is widely expressed.

Anybody who has followed Indian elections over a length of time, however, will tell you that this is almost never the case.

In fact, voter enthusiasm -- the excitement on the street -- is often the most in 'wave' elections.

There is a sense of anticipation, a better future, sometimes even vengeance. For all these reasons, 2024 is turning out to be an unexpectedly themeless election.

The big surprise is that Narendra Modi, the greatest conjurer in our national politics, has not yet presented a theme to this election. Or a thread that can run through phases one to seven.

Already, until the conclusion of phase two on April 26, he and his party had presented new themes and moved on -- some not lasting even a week in the campaign.

The extent to which the BJP campaign has been defined by the Opposition and the issues set by the Congress is also remarkable.

It is generally an unlikely thing for a deeply entrenched incumbent and frontrunner to keep reacting to the challenger.

This BJP has worked hard to earn an entirely deserved reputation as a party constantly in campaign mode.

Campaign 2024, therefore, began on the theme of Narendra Modi leading India to a much higher global stature than anybody in the past -- the unspoken comparison was with Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi.

The pathway to it began with the gates of Bharat Mandapam, which hosted the G20 summit. The entire show was choreographed to project Modi as the new leader of the world, and it was acknowledged as being so by the heads of the most powerful States.

Of course, this set piece received a setback with the failure of the plan to collect the Quad leadership in New Delhi around Republic Day, and even more so with US President Joe Biden turning down the invitation to be chief guest.

Now, what role the Nijjar-Pannun issue played here, or what kind of shadow it set on the G20, especially between India and the Anglosphere, we don't know.

What can reasonably be concluded is that this momentum of rising global stature was, if not broken, delivered a rude wobble.

The other plank built during the same pre-election weeks was a large appeal to the woman voter, especially with the hurried passing of the law for women's reservation in elected bodies.

The law, with no deadline for implementation, will await the next Census and delimitation -- and for all we know, it may miss 2029.

Again, it doesn't feature prominently in any of the BJP's campaign talk. In fact, the party's women candidates in this election are just about one in six, or 16 per cent.

The Ram Mandir was consecrated in January, again timed for the elections. And yet, check the last 100 speeches of the top 20 leaders of the BJP across states and see where it prominently features, and with how much emphasis.

It only popped up on your TV screens as suggestions emerged that Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi might visit the temple.

Yet another plank was cut and installed with great enthusiasm weeks before the elections were announced, with the award of the Bharat Ratna to two of the most prominent backward-caste/rural underclass leaders in our history: Charan Singh and Karpoori Thakur.

This was the plank of social justice. We haven't heard much about it since then. For sure, the first created the justification for Charan Singh's grandson to leave the INDIA bloc and join the National Democratic Alliance instead.

If you lean back and see the state of the campaign right now, it is defined by the challenger, although probably even the Congress people might be surprised by that description.

In recent weeks, both parties have released their manifestos.

You can note how consistently the prime minister mentions the Congress manifesto, raising questions and fears over it, and how subdued he and his key leaders are in their references to their party's own manifesto.

Similarly, Rahul Gandhi's April 6 speech at the manifesto release in Hyderabad, where he promised a survey of 'institutions, society and wealth', followed by a revolutionary process of distributing it fairly (he didn't use that word, but the implication is clear) among the '90 per cent' left out, has defined Modi's campaign since.

Of course, he has taken the fears to ordinary women losing their mangalsutra and ' stridhan ', as the 'Congress' will loot them in their lives and after.

The latest came after Sam Pitroda lit the inheritance tax fire. Are these fears justified or not is an academic point. Unless you think, midway in this campaign, that the Congress party has a realistic chance of coming to power.

Most Congress people and their Opposition allies would tell you on the sidelines that their most realistic target is to hold Modi below that 272 mark.

That's why Modi's approach to this election, despite the odds favouring him so heavily, is intriguing.

He's setting it up in terms of fears of the Congress returning to power, rather than his 10-year track record, and the promise of Viksit Bharat in 2047.

By special arrangement with ThePrint

INDIA VOTES, 2024

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/ Rediff.com

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IMAGES

IN PICS: PM Modi Impresses All At BRICS
PM Narendra Modi chaired 13th BRICS Summit
PM Modi presses for BRICS playing larger role in ensuring global peace
IN PICS: PM Modi Impresses All At BRICS
India is world's most open, investment-friendly economy: PM Modi at
Mutual cooperation can help global post-Covid recovery: Modi at BRICS

VIDEO

BRICS Summit 2023
PM Modi BRICS Summit
Indian PM narendra Modi in BRICS summit
BRICS Summit
BRICS Summit 2023
PM Modi at the BRICS Summit Welcome Ceremony

COMMENTS

BRICS Summit 2023 highlights: 'India is the fastest-growing major
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PM Modi arrived in South Africa on a three-day visit to attend the 15th BRICS summit. MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said, "Deputy President of South Africa received the PM on this arrival.
PM Modi to visit South Africa: What is BRICS, its significance?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit South Africa for the BRICS Summit to be held from August 22 to 24 in Johannesburg. There has been an indication from China, a fellow member of the grouping, about Chinese President Xi Jinping and PM Modi having a bilateral meeting during this period as well.. China's ambassador to South Africa Chen Xiaodong told reporters, "I am confident that ...
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PM Modi's South Africa visit to attend BRICS Summit: Dates ...
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PM Modi to Attend 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa's ...
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PM Modi to attend BRICS summit in South Africa
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NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will depart for Johannesburg on Tuesday to participate in the 15th BRICS Summit that will be held from August 22-24. Giving details about the PM's trip, foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra said the theme of this year's summit is: "BRICS and Africa: Partnership for mutually accelerated growth, sustainable development and inclusive multilateralism".
Brics Summit 2023: PM Modi to depart for Johannesburg on Tuesday to
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Modi's Approach To Election Is Intriguing
That's why Modi's approach to this election, despite the odds favouring him so heavily, is intriguing. He's setting it up in terms of fears of the Congress returning to power, rather than his 10 ...
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